When will the compromising ever stop?

What does it mean for the office of the President of the United States to demand that a prominent Catholic University cover and otherwise remove all references to Jesus for the President to present a policy speech there? The first question that logically arises is why chose to use a religious facility for a public policy speech? Secondly, why be so horribly ashamed of the letters IHS which are used by Catholics to signify Jesus Christ?

I understand the whole separation of church and state argument, and I also understand the ongoing debate over what are the true religious feelings of our President. But, the question still remains first and foremost; why is a Catholic University forced to for all practical purposes turn itself into a secular institution to accommodate the fears of an office that their President be looked at as a Christian?

If the President is ashamed to be associated with Jesus Christ, he should simply make his feelings known and handle the backlash, whatever it may be. When politicians start playing both ends against the middle, especially with religion, the outcome is going to be bad. The President has the right to believe whatever he chooses, the same way we all do. But, he has no right to demand a facility cover up its beliefs in Jesus so as to not “offend” non Christians who might be watching.

If the current outpouring of junk continues from this administration towards Christians, and especially conservative oriented Christians, there is going to be a backlash. For anyone displaying an anti abortion bumper sticker to be labeled a potential terrorist is scary to the say the least. To mark and label returning veterans as potential terrorists is insanity. To simply lump anyone who doesn’t believe as you do as a potential terrorist will surely split this country in half as the events yesterday displayed.

It is very doubtful that Texas will really secede from the Union but to even be talking publically about it displays a level of displeasure with government that hasn’t been around since 1860. God forbid this country disintegrates into another civil war, but at the rate things are going, that is a distinct possibility. There are still millions upon millions of God fearing unashamed Christians in this country who are not going to simply cease speaking and teaching Jesus just because the Gospel might offend a non Christian.

Situations like the one yesterday at Georgetown University make me sick to my stomach. This kind of hypocrisy on the part of both the government and the university speaks loudly that this once great Republic could be on its last legs. When is someone going to display some intestinal fortitude and just say NO when forced to compromise principle to accommodate politics? Notre Dame couldn’t muster such fortitude and now Georgetown can’t either. What is next, for the Pope to visit and be told he can’t wear his Holy attire or cross himself lest it offend someone?

Hurricane Kyle (?), Ike Relief and Recovery, Lack of Media Attetion and General Needs

Why the storm buffeting North Carolina with hurricane force winds is not named is a mystery known only to the government agency which is responsible for such things. If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it probably is a duck. It is quite fascinating to have warnings issued for hurricane force winds (for a coastal area) and there not even be a tropical storm.

The next storm, once it finally gets moving will head due north and probably pay Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine a visit. These areas are prone to minor hurricanes, and that is what this storm (Kyle whenever named) will probably be.

The next three weeks should provide some interesting developmental opportunities for new storms. Where these storms form and hit along with their timing is at the moment pure speculation. The point is that meteorologically, the conditions are very similar to when we saw Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike form in rapid fire succession.

The fear among many who look at and study weather is that no matter what might happen, it will be a minor story due to the big “save the economy” news out of Washington. The horrible situation in Texas and Louisiana has already fallen victim to bigger and greater news. Any legitimate threat of an approaching storm would surely suffer the same fate.

The worst time to be struck by a hurricane is the final month of a Presidential campaign that is being hotly contested. Add in the historic events happening with the economy this year and what has happened with post-Ike media coverage will be the norm for future storms.

I was speaking with an associate who continues to help those devastated by Hurricane Katrina the other day. I told this person that if “Katrina #2” did indeed strike the central Gulf Coast this fall, not to expect even 20% of the new coverage, let alone the offers to help that came after Katrina. The will and ability of Americans is just not there to help like they did three years ago.

Isn’t it amazing how those who need help the most receive the least? There are precious few news stories coming out of Ike affected areas, and those that are done are always about Galveston. All the other areas of the coast from Beaumont, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana receive ZERO attention. It is these areas where just like after Katrina and Rita three years ago, hundreds and thousands of people will “fall through the cracks” and be left to fend for themselves.

I feel badly for anyone who lost their home or had it badly damaged by Gustov or Ike. But my heart aches for those who lost their home or had it badly damaged and to this date, no one knows about it. Those who somehow fall through the cracks and receive no aid from FEMA, Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other government or private organization are the people I care most about.

Mainly senior citizens or those with disabilities, the people who fall through the cracks after a hurricane are usually the same ones who fall through the cracks every day of the week. These situations present very difficult cases for those who try and help people on a daily basis. Yet, if someone does not at least try to locate and extend to these people the offer of help; they will suffer the most after a storm.

Yes, many of these folks reject the very idea of help out of pride. They take pride in their independence and look at charity as a sign of weakness. Yet, there comes a time, especially when their home is falling down on top of them, that they finally accept offers of help. These cases many times provide caregivers with the most rewarding success stories.

Americans must remember that in rural areas, especially in southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, there are many times no organized services made available for seniors, those with disabilities and those too poor to afford public services. Many locations have nothing like a “senior center” to provide daily meals or a service to deliver meals to homebound seniors. Many areas have no form of transportation available to get those who are elderly, disabled or poor to doctor’s visits or even to get to the store.

These are interesting times in which we live and are bound to get even more interesting in the coming month to six weeks. God help us all to stay strong, alert and aware of changing situations and needs.

Ike Fatalities, Gustov Devastation, New York Hurricane Threat; Where is the Media Attention?

To say that I am shocked would be a gross understatement. To say that I am surprised would not be true. To say that I am disgusted would perhaps best describe how I feel about the change in media policy toward covering REAL NEWS.

In a matter of three weeks, this country has been rocked by two major hurricanes along with a powerful tropical storm. Before this month is over, there will be storm lash the Carolina’s which will be as strong as most tropical storms. Before this month is over, there will be a hurricane of undetermined intensity strike either New York or New England. Where is the coverage of any of this in the news? It is not there.

The media has determined that they devoted enough time and space to Hurricane Ike coverage and have moved on to the greener pastures of the Washington economic bail out and the continuing fake news on the political front. Once most of Houston got their power back on and once the citizens of Galveston were allowed to at least see what became of their homes; the media figured their job was done and they were gone. The problem is that unless there remains a media presence, the American people quickly forget about a situation due their collective attention deficit disorder.

It seems the American public cannot focus on anything longer than a few hours. I would venture to say that the overwhelming majority of Americans have totally forgotten about Hurricane Gustov and are quickly forgetting about Ike. A few days removed from the front page and most stories are distant history.

The unfortunate reality when it comes to disaster relief is that the real work comes long after everyone things the work was all done. The tasks of repairing, rebuilding and restoring buildings and lives takes an enormous amount of time, work and money. Recovery from a major disaster entails far more than just pumping water out of a flooded basement or fixing a few shingles on the roof.

When I first visited New Orleans 8 months after Katrina hit one of the things that stood out most to me was the lack of retail businesses needed to repair, rebuild and restore. I made many trips to the one Home Depot that was open and waited in lines for upwards of two hours. There were few Wal-Mart’s and Targets open for months and even fewer grocery stores and restaurants. Part of the problem in New Orleans was the lack of people to work at these places.

If the majority of people in an area have had to leave due to major destruction, there of necessity will be a labor shortage for the few places trying to open. Another issue is where the evacuees are staying. If the area is demolished, they are not going to be staying in the area. They will be anywhere from a few miles to a continent away. Yet another problem is lack of reliable contractors and laborers to do the work.

Once debris removal is complete, the first thing that must be done to damaged homes and buildings is the removal of damaged drywall. The “gutting” out of structures is absolutely necessary to keep mold from taking over the dwelling. After Katrina, crews of volunteers from all over the United States descended on New Orleans and Mississippi just to gut all the structures which received water damage. When it comes to gutting, the need is volunteers and not supplies.

The next thing that must be addressed are the roofs. Immediately after a storm, blue tarps are put on damaged roofs to prevent moisture from getting in and ruining drywall and to prevent mold from growing. Logically, there is great need initially for roofing supplies and roofers. I am sure that there is a growing shortage of both supplies and workers in the roofing industry in Louisiana and Texas.

After roofs are fixed then, and only then, can the rebuilding stage start. It is utter folly to start repairs inside the house before the roof is repaired. Once the roof is finished, then a contractor must determine if the floor is ruined. Usually flooring is the next side of things to need supplies and workers. Notice how with each step of restoration the job becomes more expensive and labor intensive? Along with flooring comes electrical wiring and plumbing issues. Of course before all this are infrastructure needs that must be addressed.

Finally, after the roof, infrastructure, floors, electric and plumbing are done; then the time consuming and very expensive task of putting up new drywall starts. Even when that is done there remains the replacement of furniture, carpeting and drapes. The entire process of restoring a severely damaged building is very expensive and time consuming.

In the months and years after Katrina, there were constant shortages of building supplies that matched the progress being made. Initially there were shortages of lumber and roofing materials. Then there were shortages of flooring materials. Finally, the biggest shortage of all was drywall. Even once the literal shortages were relieved, there remained a dire shortage of qualified workers to do the work.

If the media had not kept the attention of America focused on Katrina for many months, there would not have been the continual outpouring of donated goods and volunteer services that continue unto this day. Yes, it has been three years since Katrina and there are still people either waiting for insurance money to get their home repaired or volunteer agencies to help when there was no money available.

The myths in disaster recovery are as follows:

1. Everyone has insurance and thus have the means to get repairs made

2. The area is flooded with reputable contractors and supplies

3. All the work is done and finished in a few weeks or months

4. Volunteers are only needed at the beginning of the relief effort

5. Donations of goods and money are only needed directly after the disaster

The great secret to success in disaster relief and recovery depends in part upon governmental agencies doing their part, private businesses doing their part and service groups and charities doing their part. It takes a team effort to see prompt and proper disaster relief, repair, rebuilding and restoration. The catalyst for this is constant media attention. It is truly a shame the media has chosen to leave the victims in Louisiana and Texas to fend for themselves.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.

Ike and Wall Street; 2 Days, 2 Places, 2 Equally Devasting Storms

This just in–water is available in Liverpool, 30 miles from Galveston!

In less than 72 hours, two hurricanes slammed into America. The first one hit Friday night at Galveston, Texas. The second one hit in New York on Monday. In both cases, millions of people were dramatically affected by the storm and hundreds of thousands were devastated by the storm surge.

When Ike hit, everyone knew he was coming and had days to either leave or prepare to stay. If staying, provisions had to be obtained which would allow survival for days if not weeks. If leaving, a place to go had to be established as well as the means necessary to get there and stay for as long as needed. There was no way of knowing ahead of time how bad the storm would be or how long life would be disrupted.

The storm which hit Wall Street on Monday was not unexpected. Watches had been posted on Friday and warnings were flying on Sunday. The actual storm which hit yesterday was intense and for those who never prepared for it, devastating. Even today, there is no way to know if the storm which hit the markets yesterday was a category 1 or a category 5.

The general effects of Ike were felt by millions of people in Texas and Louisiana. At this time, there are still millions without electricity, very few gasoline stations opened, long lines at distribution centers to obtain water and ice and nowhere to find food and other supplies. There are still vast areas unreached by rescue personnel and only now is the true strength of Ike being seen in places wiped off the face of the map by the storm.

The general effects of the storm on Wall Street yesterday were felt all through the economy by anyone owning stocks in a mutual fund, IRA or investment package. With the general loss of around 4%, everyone in the country who invests in the stock market found themselves 4% poorer at the end of the day than at the start. Whereas the vast majority of people will simply “weather the storm” and hopefully see their portfolio bounce back later; for some, yesterday was equivalent to living in West Galveston.

Ike slammed ashore Friday night. By Saturday night Ike’s remnants were pounding Arkansas with deadly tornadoes and flooding rains. By Sunday, Ike was swamping St. Louis, Missouri with worse flooding than in the great 1993 flood. Chicago, Illinois was inundated with upwards of 9 inches of rain and major flooding was occurring throughout the city. Places in Indiana and Ohio received hurricane force winds, doing in some cases as much damage as in parts of Houston. Truly Ike’s power was felt thousands of miles away from his epicenter.

People who do not even own stocks will feel the effects of the storm which hit Wall Street yesterday. As everyone’s money tightens, they are less willing and able to buy things and give to charities. The ripple effect of so many people losing so much money in one day will be felt from the retailers to the Salvation Army. In fact, the effects could produce more problems than just the obvious loss of worth felt by those owning stocks.

Where Ike came ashore, the damage is unimaginable. Only yesterday did rescue crews finally make it to “ground zero”. Just as in any major hurricane, the damage exceeded anyone’s expectations. Where the storm surge was greatest, there is nothing left of what once was houses, businesses, churches and schools. The surge came in and took out everything in its path. Those silly enough to have dared defy the power of nature paid the ultimate price, whether they ever officially are counted as a fatality or not.

Those either working for Lehman Brothers stock or who worked for the company were at ground zero of the storm yesterday. An associate of mine who works a block from the building that housed Lehman Brothers, said the line of workers stretched for blocks as they waited to enter and clean out their desks. All these people had jobs Friday and come Monday they were unemployed. Those who owned stock in Lehman found their “investment” worth 18 cents by Monday afternoon. Truly anyone closely involved with the company had the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane go over their house.

This week will determine how much of the rest of this fall will go both in Ike effected areas as well as the stock markets. Depending on what the Fed does today, they may opt for a “quick fix” by way of lowering interest rates to stimulate more borrowing at the expense of the dollar, or may continue their hands off policy and allow the markets to naturally shake down. Depending on what they decide, Wall Street will either rally or tank; and the effects on the economy will flow behind.

This week is the week when either Ike victims start to see genuine disaster relief or we find yet another gigantic FEMA boondoggle. So far, using the government’s socialistic approach to relief, those who have deeply affected by Ike remain in a state of hunger, thirst and growing frustration. I will save my scathing editorial opinions of FEMA for another post; but suffice it to say, I am not a big fan of the government hijacking the disaster relief and recovery operations away from the private sector. I fear that is exactly what is happening in the economic sector even as I write this.

Thank God for Wobbles–Ike spares Houston his Worst

Since I have written extensively on the potential dangers associated with hurricane Ike, let me also be one to say that Houston dodged a bullet which will make all the difference between a disaster of unspeakable proportions vs. what will be a very bad situation but one which is manageable. If Ike had tracked even 15 miles further west then it did, then Galveston Bay would have received the full brunt of the storm surge and Houston would have suffered the consequences.

Time will tell today just how bad the flooding is, but the issue in Houston was always more with flooding than wind damage. Just as New Orleans was spared from the worst case scenario three years ago, so Houston was spared also. As bad as the situation turns out to be (or as good) in Harris County; it could have been far worse.

Whether the same can be said for Galveston and points east is yet to be determined. As the day and days ahead unfold, the true extent of this storm will become manifest. Without question, Ike will prove to be the costliest hurricane in Texas’ history; only time will tell if it is the same in American history.

As many are already doing, I beg America to not decide too early that Ike was not as bad as promoted. It is far too early in the game to make any determinations as to the number of fatalities and amount of damage done. The bigger concern for most is the lack of electricity which may linger on for days or weeks. It takes time to get crews out and before they can, trees and debris must be removed and of course flood waters must recede.

As fortunate as the folks in Houston proper may be, I know no one who feels the same for many coastal areas. Reports from as far east as coastal Alabama indicate the damage done by the storm surge may very well be beyond the scope of comparison. Reports indicate sections of Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana are still under 4 to 8 feet of water. Western Louisiana may very well be under 10 feet of water still at this time.

Literally God only knows what has become of the thousands of people who staked their lives on Ike not being as bad as advertised. As the waters slowly recede and search and rescue crews make their way to what is left of many coastal communities, I am afraid what they will find will not be good. In fact, we could still be looking at the greatest number of fatalities in the history of any storm to hit this country.

I beg anyone who stumbles upon this post to take a few moments this day and pray for not only those directly affected by this tragedy but those who will find out in the hours and days to come that a loved one has perished. Truly a storm surge of grief is bound to sweep over this land.

As Ike pushes north and northeast the rains associated with it will flood thousands of acres and hundreds of homes in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri. Truly a storm the size and with the power of Ike will leave a legacy of equal proportions. I pray the citizens of this country will step up and help in the days ahead in all areas impacted by this storm.

Houston’s High Stakes Gamble; Betting Ike Won’t Explode

At this late stage of the game, there is little that can be done but wait and pray. I do pray that the decision made to not evacuate huge sections of Houston was a wise one. This is somewhat like placing a bet on the highest stakes game ever played. That which is in the “ante” are hundreds of thousands of people’s lives. Whether I agree with the decision or anyone else makes no difference. All anyone can do is pray for the best in light of an unprecedented situation.

Hurricane Ike has somewhat strengthened overnight and has held its course heading for landfall near the west end of Galveston Island. There is still a slight chance the hurricane may move east, but there is a greater chance it might move slightly west. It certainly appears at the moment that all the dire forecasts for Galveston could come to pass.

The “wildcard” in all this is what will happen to Houston proper. Galveston island does act as a barrier island which protects Houston to some degree. But, the barrier islands did little to protect the Mississippi coast from Katrina’s wrath. All anyone can do is pray that Ike doesn’t produce a 30 foot surge, for if it does, then Houston is in for a world of hurt.

As impressive as the surge estimates are, I am intrigued by the overtopping wave estimates. I can not think of a storm where there was discussion of 50 foot waves. I do not believe very many people stop and think about how high 50’ is. I will say one thing for sure; if an area is hit with even a 25’ surge along with 50’ waves, that area will not be there come Saturday evening.

Various media stories are flush with reports of people fed up with false alarms and the hassles of evacuations. These people are going to defy mandatory evacuation orders and take their chances riding out the storm. Depending on where they are located and where Ike ends up hitting; the images of these people will be the last anyone sees of them.

Many knowledgeable people in the Galveston/Houston area are appalled by the apathetic attitude that has been manifested by all parties toward this storm. This is no doubt due to the Rita fiasco three years ago coupled with the Gustov non-event a few weeks ago. As justifiable as people’s reluctance to act is; when all is said and done, it will result in “justifiable suicide” at best. One can defy man’s decrees and live through it. One cannot defy nature’s decrees and expect anything but what she has to give.

As this day drags on, Ike will no doubt have ups and downs and plenty of wobbles. Unless something unexpected happens, Ike will strike Texas somewhere southwest of Houston late tonight or early Saturday morning. By Sunday, Ike will be long gone and will be flooding Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri. By Monday, Ike could very well be in the Atlantic Ocean. So, whatever happens will be quick.

When the winds die down and the rains cease and crews are able to get out Sunday to survey the damage caused by Ike; I think everyone in this country will be in for a shock. I think what will be seen will surpass Katrina as far as damage and possible fatalities. I think Ike will so damage the Oil and Gas business that we will see spikes that last for at least a month. I think the repercussions of Ike will still be felt months from now along with the finger pointing and name calling.

Americans lovetheir freedom and do not like someone telling them what to do. Many who cherish their freedom include riding out hurricanes as part of the “Bill of Rights”. In a way, I understand, for it is like those who choose to smoke. If they want to destroy their body, it is their choice. But, if a person makes the decision to defy orders, they should forfeit their ability to sue for damages later.

I can only pray that those who willingly decided to defy mandatory evacuation orders live to tell about it. I can only pray that those who did not issue mandatory evacuation orders do not live to regret it. I can only pray that those who will spend the next two days “hunkered down” as they followed orders to NOT evacuate do not end up in the fatality statistics.

The next thirty-six hours will tell who the winners and losers were in this highest of stakes poker game. May we all pray, that for the good of all, the losers are few and somehow the losses are minimized. Please pray for the “huddled masses” in their bunkers all around Houston.

URGENT–Galveston and Houston Now Appear in Ike’s Sight

URGENT

Look at the latest GDFL model run!! It now has Ike going straight for Galveston/Houston. This is an extremely bad situation. Ike is intensifying quickly and no doubt will attain category 3 and probably category 4 status. A worst case scenario would be a hit to the south of Galveston pushing a huge storm surge up Galveston Bay. Considering the amount of oil related businesses, this could be an economic and environmental disaster.

Is the greater Houston area prepared for winds of 100 mph or greater? I don’t know for I don’t live there. All I know is that at this time, no one outside of coastal Texas is taking Ike seriously. Ike will pass hundreds of miles to the south of Mississippi yet there are coastal flood warnings in place there until Friday. Word has it the water is already high and covering some roads. What is going to happen as Ike gets bigger and stronger and passes by New Orleans and areas hit by Gustov?

Ike is still not a major news story because the nation as a whole is far more interested in lipstick on various animals than the potential catastrophe heading for Texas. Whether the nation as a whole wakes up to what is happening or not, those living near where Ike could end up making landfall need to be packing their vehicles and getting a head start on the monumental traffic jam coming when millions of people will try leave at once.

IKE IS NOT GOING AWAY.

Ike is behaving in much the same way Katrina and Rita did three years ago. A storm the size of Ike is not going to just fall apart in September in the Gulf of Mexico. With each passing model run, the odds of Ike hitting farther and farther UP the coast of Texas increase. Yet, I heard on the news a couple of hours ago about Ike maybe hitting Brownsville. What planet were they on? NO ONE is talking about a south Texas hit any longer.

The multitudes of people in the Galveston/Houston area will end up having less than 48 hours to get out of the way of Ike. Many will think just going inland fifty miles will allow them to be safe. Let me tell you, after seeing the damage Katrina did 125 miles north of landfall, those people will deeply regret only going 50 miles.

There is a huge risk of a massive tornado outbreak with Ike just as there was Rita. I was at Cameron, Louisiana and spoke with survivors. They lived through Rita and told me there were “hundreds of tornadoes” and that it was the tornadoes which caused as much damage as the storm surge and winds. I was at a hurricane conference in Houston and brought this up and was promptly shot down by the “experts” at the NHC.

THE REAL AND PRESENT DANGER

Complacency breeds disaster. Far too many people have been lulled into a false sense of security by looking at maps showing Ike heading for south Texas. Unless people wake up and realize what is happening with the steering currents, they will not have time to get out. Whether the storm actually makes it all the way to Galveston or not, the people there and in Houston have to deal with highways unable to handle the mass exodus of a total evacuation. The nightmares associated with the Rita evacuation have caused many to wait until the last minute to leave. Not a good thing.

Many of the oil rigs in the Gulf have already been caught off guard by Ike and many more will be. When looking at the satellite it is obvious that Ike is quickly taking on all the characteristics of a major hurricane, including taking up most of the Gulf of Mexico. There is a very real chance that by tomorrow, Ike could look on a satellite almost exactly as both Katrina and Rita did at nearly the same spot. The difference is that those two storms went predominantly north and Ike is going west to northwest.

Please, if you live anywhere on the Texas coast or have interests there, investigate what is really being said about Ike outside of the “official” line. Ike will become a major news story shortly, and once it does, it will be a royal mess trying to go anywhere. A smart person would already have the car and truck packed and ready to leave at a moment’s notice. I pray all involved are smart people.

I just checked with one of my most trusted sources and he has pulled the trigger urging the evacuation of Galveston and Houston. I know he would not go out on that limb if he did not feel there was reason to risk his reputation and worse. Those with interests in the area need to not only have the car packed, but the gas tank full and the engine running. Please stay abreast of this potentially horrible disaster in the making.

Ike and Carla a perfect match?

With the question marks pretty much gone as to where Ike is going, the only things left are timing and strength. My trusted sources are making a very strong case for Ike to be “Carla #2”. In case no one remembers 1961 well enough to recall Carla, here are a few details:

Formed—September 3, 1961

Dissipated—September 16, 1961

Highest Winds—175 mph

Lowest Pressure—931

Fatalities—43

Storm Surge—22 feet, going 10 miles inland

Damage—325 million (1961 dollars)

2.34 billion (2008 dollars)

Carla was one of the top seven most powerful hurricanes to hit the United States, and the most powerful to hit Texas. Just before landfall, it weakened, but Carla was still a very strong and unusually large category 4 hurricane at its landfall between Port O’Conner and Port Lavaca, Texas, on September 11th. At the time, Carla became the largest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. Along the entire Texas coast, hurricane warnings were put into effect, causing a large evacuation of low-lying areas.

In an eerie twist of fate, Ike is heading toward pretty much the same place and could very well reach the same intensity. I cannot stress highly enough the need for anyone near the projected landfall of Ike to take all needed precautions and head inland. I, and many other independent forecasters, believe this storm will end up at least a category 4 upon landfall. This storm MUST be prepared for NOW and I am sure Texas is doing just that.

Anywhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston needs to prepare for the impact of a major hurricane. Places inland need to prepare for a tropical storm and for tornadoes. Current guidance puts Ike over the Dallas area still strong enough to be considered a tropical storm! How many times do the folks in Dallas and Fort Worth encounter sustained winds of tropical storm strength?

Once Ike gets into Texas its moisture will flow northeast and all points between Texas and New England are in for a ton of rain. Just what we here in St. Louis need, more heavy rain, for this is already the wettest year on record. Ike will still be making news not only a week from now, but quite possibly a year from now.

Carla had a storm surge of 22 feet associated with it. It doesn’t take a meteorologist to figure out that could be catastrophic IF Ike goes a little east of its projected path and Galveston found itself on the northeast side of a category 4 storm. Carla did a world of damage to Galveston in 1961, and Ike holds the same potential in 2008.

Since this storm is still getting its act together, there is room for error as far as track and intensity. Thus, all interests along the Texas coast need to act now to deal with a hurricane very few would have ever personally experienced in their lifetime. This could end up being a very bad situation for not only Texas, but for many parts of this country as the moisture streams northeast.

Ike Likes Texas, it Appears–But Others Should NOT Forget Him

Not since a certain President during the 1950’s has there been such a fuss over anyone named “Ike”. But, unlike the popular “Ike” (who both Texas and Kansas claim), there is nothing much to like about the current Ike.

As stated by the NHC in its update this morning, only five days ago Ike appeared to be heading for the Florida Keys and then toward New Orleans. The Keys were ordered evacuated and hundreds of thousands of folks in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana began losing sleep over the prospect of Katrina number two.

We are now at day five and Ike is SOUTH of Cuba and “supposedly” going to south Texas to follow up on what Dolly started. The Keys are wet and windy and full of disgruntled business owners who are complaining about lost income due to the evacuation. Everyone in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana has gotten back to either recovering from Gustov or preparing for the next football game. How times change in a matter of five days.

The question that begs to be answered is; where will Ike be five days from now? That indeed is the million dollar question that is much more difficult than answered who the longest reigning monarch was in England (answered correctly on “Fifth Grader” last week for one million dollars). I know what most of the models are showing and at the current rate, according to them, Ike will probably end up in Mexico. But, I also know what the UKMET and HWRF are showing about a possible curve to the north.

All the models and the official forecast are based on a series of “What If’s” coming to pass. Assumptions are made based on the probability of certain things happening at certain times. If all works out perfectly, then the five day forecast is right. If something doesn’t work perfectly, the forecast is a bust. For five days we were told (near St. Louis) that there would be storms and rain yesterday and today. Certain areas did get severe storms last evening around St. Louis, but many areas got no rain at all. Today is sunny with no chance of rain. What happened?

A front moved faster than anticipated and the trigger for the storms was pulled to the east and south of here. The end result is a “busted” forecast that really bothered no one since this is the wettest year in history around here. The amazing part of this story is that the forecast for storms yesterday and today was still being promoted at noon yesterday.

I do not believe for one minute at this point in time that Hurricane Ike is going to end up hitting the deserted southern coast of Texas north of Brownsville early Saturday morning as a category 3 storm. Between now and then, something will change with the ridges and troughs north and east of the Gulf of Mexico and the timing of them. Something will dramatically alter the things needed for Ike to grow or diminish.

Where Ike ends up going is strictly based on probabilities at the moment. By the time Saturday rolls around, I am quite certain Ike will be somewhere OTHER THAN the uninhabited coastline between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas. Where, I have no clue other than to trust those who have far more knowledge than I and who have no agenda to fulfill. The best sources I have access to put the better chance for landfall near Corpus Christi as a category 4 or even a 5 storm.

Bear with me here. WHAT IF, the ridge that is supposed to guide Ike to the west or even southwest does not do as planned when it is planned to? What if something happens to provide an opening for the storm to move north through a weakness in the ridge (has happened many times)? What if the remnants of Josephine reach the Bahamas as planned later this week and turn into a depression and totally wreck the models plans?

Of course evacuation plans and other provisions cannot be made of a series of “WHAT IF’S”, but by the same token millions of people cannot be lulled into a false sense of security by model changes either. I believe with all my heart that the wise person living anywhere between Brownsville, Texas and New Orleans, Louisiana needs to be on their own personal hurricane watch for the next two days. By this time on Thursday, we will know for sure where Ike is heading, but until then why take any chances by even toying with the worst think that could happen—complacency.