These are times that are trying many souls

Over the course of the past year or so, we have witnessed catastrophic earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, New Zealand and Japan.  We have seen a tsunami suddenly kill thousands of people and cause turmoil and anxiety even unto this present hour due to the problems at a nuclear power plant in Japan.  We have seen volcanoes erupt in Iceland and ice storms in places that rarely see them.  Through it all, the United States of America was basically unscathed.

Over the past few weeks, the forces of nature have unleashed their fury upon the very heart of America.  Through wildfires burning in Texas, flooding along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and the current incredible outbreak of tornadoes; there is no longer any feeling of invincibility in this land.  As if the current situation were not bad enough, a very active hurricane season looms just ahead.

In due time, all the damage being done by all these natural disasters will act as a financial stimulus as people will find jobs rebuilding houses, businesses, churches and other facilities.  But, in the short term, the current situation is too much for many to bear.  Losing one’s home or business is a traumatic experience that leaves deep scars in someone’s hearts for years to come.  Obviously there are many hurting people around right now.

The frustration people go through dealing with insurance companies, government agencies, financial institutions and employers is hard to understand unless a person has lived through a major disaster or worked with those who have.  People can talk about “trusting God” all they want, but when your home is a pile of debris, your place of employment is demolished and your creditors want payments NOW; the pressure many times literally breaks people and demolishes families.

In 2006 I took a very long and difficult trip to Cameron, a little town on the coast of southwestern Louisiana, which had been utterly destroyed by hurricane Rita the previous year.  The area was a ghost town as it had been literally forgotten due to most of the emphasis being placed on Katrina damage.  As I trudged through the sand looking at the destruction I came upon a few very haggard people hanging around a white tent.

When I inquired as to what was going on, I was told of how there used to be a church ministry that brought food to that tent twice a week but had run out of resources and had to stop.  My heart ached for these poor people who received no aid from FEMA, the Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other group except one lonely ministry who could no longer find the resources to get food to them.

I was not able to do much but the pictures I took of the people and their plight did make their way to some agencies which in due time were able to get some resources down there.  The town had literally fallen through the cracks due to all the other needs.

As people attempt to put their lives back together in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Virginia; I pray that those of us unaffected by the current onslaught of floods and tornadoes remember those whose lives have been turned upside down.

These are very troubled and turbulent times and many of our brothers and sisters are hurting right now.  If ever they needed a friend to lend them a hand or a shoulder to cry on it is NOW.  If there was ever a time to redouble our prayers and “stand in the gap” it is NOW.  If there was ever a time to intercede on behalf of those who are struggling to stay sane and alive, it is NOW.  Truly this is a time to pray for and reach out to all those engaged in the worst battles of their lives.

Ike Fatalities, Gustov Devastation, New York Hurricane Threat; Where is the Media Attention?

To say that I am shocked would be a gross understatement. To say that I am surprised would not be true. To say that I am disgusted would perhaps best describe how I feel about the change in media policy toward covering REAL NEWS.

In a matter of three weeks, this country has been rocked by two major hurricanes along with a powerful tropical storm. Before this month is over, there will be storm lash the Carolina’s which will be as strong as most tropical storms. Before this month is over, there will be a hurricane of undetermined intensity strike either New York or New England. Where is the coverage of any of this in the news? It is not there.

The media has determined that they devoted enough time and space to Hurricane Ike coverage and have moved on to the greener pastures of the Washington economic bail out and the continuing fake news on the political front. Once most of Houston got their power back on and once the citizens of Galveston were allowed to at least see what became of their homes; the media figured their job was done and they were gone. The problem is that unless there remains a media presence, the American people quickly forget about a situation due their collective attention deficit disorder.

It seems the American public cannot focus on anything longer than a few hours. I would venture to say that the overwhelming majority of Americans have totally forgotten about Hurricane Gustov and are quickly forgetting about Ike. A few days removed from the front page and most stories are distant history.

The unfortunate reality when it comes to disaster relief is that the real work comes long after everyone things the work was all done. The tasks of repairing, rebuilding and restoring buildings and lives takes an enormous amount of time, work and money. Recovery from a major disaster entails far more than just pumping water out of a flooded basement or fixing a few shingles on the roof.

When I first visited New Orleans 8 months after Katrina hit one of the things that stood out most to me was the lack of retail businesses needed to repair, rebuild and restore. I made many trips to the one Home Depot that was open and waited in lines for upwards of two hours. There were few Wal-Mart’s and Targets open for months and even fewer grocery stores and restaurants. Part of the problem in New Orleans was the lack of people to work at these places.

If the majority of people in an area have had to leave due to major destruction, there of necessity will be a labor shortage for the few places trying to open. Another issue is where the evacuees are staying. If the area is demolished, they are not going to be staying in the area. They will be anywhere from a few miles to a continent away. Yet another problem is lack of reliable contractors and laborers to do the work.

Once debris removal is complete, the first thing that must be done to damaged homes and buildings is the removal of damaged drywall. The “gutting” out of structures is absolutely necessary to keep mold from taking over the dwelling. After Katrina, crews of volunteers from all over the United States descended on New Orleans and Mississippi just to gut all the structures which received water damage. When it comes to gutting, the need is volunteers and not supplies.

The next thing that must be addressed are the roofs. Immediately after a storm, blue tarps are put on damaged roofs to prevent moisture from getting in and ruining drywall and to prevent mold from growing. Logically, there is great need initially for roofing supplies and roofers. I am sure that there is a growing shortage of both supplies and workers in the roofing industry in Louisiana and Texas.

After roofs are fixed then, and only then, can the rebuilding stage start. It is utter folly to start repairs inside the house before the roof is repaired. Once the roof is finished, then a contractor must determine if the floor is ruined. Usually flooring is the next side of things to need supplies and workers. Notice how with each step of restoration the job becomes more expensive and labor intensive? Along with flooring comes electrical wiring and plumbing issues. Of course before all this are infrastructure needs that must be addressed.

Finally, after the roof, infrastructure, floors, electric and plumbing are done; then the time consuming and very expensive task of putting up new drywall starts. Even when that is done there remains the replacement of furniture, carpeting and drapes. The entire process of restoring a severely damaged building is very expensive and time consuming.

In the months and years after Katrina, there were constant shortages of building supplies that matched the progress being made. Initially there were shortages of lumber and roofing materials. Then there were shortages of flooring materials. Finally, the biggest shortage of all was drywall. Even once the literal shortages were relieved, there remained a dire shortage of qualified workers to do the work.

If the media had not kept the attention of America focused on Katrina for many months, there would not have been the continual outpouring of donated goods and volunteer services that continue unto this day. Yes, it has been three years since Katrina and there are still people either waiting for insurance money to get their home repaired or volunteer agencies to help when there was no money available.

The myths in disaster recovery are as follows:

1. Everyone has insurance and thus have the means to get repairs made

2. The area is flooded with reputable contractors and supplies

3. All the work is done and finished in a few weeks or months

4. Volunteers are only needed at the beginning of the relief effort

5. Donations of goods and money are only needed directly after the disaster

The great secret to success in disaster relief and recovery depends in part upon governmental agencies doing their part, private businesses doing their part and service groups and charities doing their part. It takes a team effort to see prompt and proper disaster relief, repair, rebuilding and restoration. The catalyst for this is constant media attention. It is truly a shame the media has chosen to leave the victims in Louisiana and Texas to fend for themselves.

Definite Hurricane Threat for East Coast next Ten Days

The hurricane forecasters are going through all sorts of contortions due to the confluence of meteorological factors along the East Coast this week. On one hand, everyone agrees there should be a very strong non-tropical low pressure area form just off the Carolina coast by as early as Wednesday evening. This low would cause near tropical storm strength winds to buffet North Carolina’s coast.

At the same time, what should become Kyle continues to hammer Puerto Rico with relentless rain. Reports of 15 inch rain totals so far are bound to make for flooding on the island. The storm is slowing heading toward the Dominican Republic where flooding rains are expected later today. This system is expected to turn to the north and then the models start going crazy due to possible scenarios.

A couple of the more troubling scenarios are that this storm could quickly become at least a category 2 hurricane and head for either Delaware Bay or Providence, Rhode Island. Much has been written and speculated upon with both of these ideas; and none of it is good. A strong hurricane hitting to the west of the Delaware Bay would be devastating to not only Philadelphia but to the entire Delaware River valley.

Those who study worst case scenarios come up with certain criteria which if met, would enable a given storm to produce the worst possible damage. Philadelphia, much like Houston, would most be impacted by a storm surge pushing up Delaware Bay from a big storm pushing its surge up the bay. Remember this was the scenario most feared with Ike and Houston. Thankfully for Houston’s sake, Ike did not perfectly match all the criteria needed for the perfect storm.

A big wet hurricane with a decent storm surge hitting at the mouth of Delaware Bay and moving north would bring huge flooding problems to Philadelphia. The argument by those who doubt this would ever happen revolve around history not showing many hurricanes able to follow the perfect path needed to produce a storm surge in Delaware Bay. This is a fair argument, but no one can say that the possibility does not exist.

It would be far more difficult for a hurricane to manage to hit New York at the correct angle to produce any kind of storm surge up the Hudson river. New York problems deal more with Long Island and it lack of protection. Anyone living on Long Island should feel at least a tinge of apprehension seeing the images from Galveston. There is a lot of similarity between the two places. Thankfully, there are far few hurricanes that maintain category 3 strength that hit New York than Texas.

The other distinct possibility is a direct hit on Providence. A major hurricane striking near Charlestown or Kingston, Rhode Island would send a storm surge straight up Narragansett Bay into Providence. Just as in the case of Long Island, although the geography is ideal for a devastating hurricane; the meteorology is not. Hurricanes are usually moving northeast as they skirt the coastline of Rhode Island. But, there are some hurricanes which refuse to read the book on hurricane behavior.

In September of 1938 a major unnamed category 3 hurricane slammed into Long Island and continued into Connecticut. In September of 1944 a huge category 3 hurricane blasted Long Island and Rhode Island. In September of 1954, Hurricane Carol (another category 3 storm) hit Long Island and Connecticut. A few weeks later, Hurricane Edna looked like it would hit the same areas but veered to the east and blasted Cape Cod, Massachusetts. In 1955 Hurricane Connie skirted the North Carolina coast and went up Chesapeake Bay.

In early September of 1960, the fifth strongest hurricane to hit the United States, Hurricane Donna struck Florida, North Carolina and Rhode Island. In June of 1972 Hurricane Agnes came ashore in the Florida Panhandle and re-emerged off the coast of North Carolina and hit New York City as a category 1 hurricane. In September of 1999 Hurricane Floyd tore through North Carolina and continued on to New England as a strong Tropical Storm. Numerous other remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have caused very high tides and flooding rains to all these areas.

Looking back on history it is very clear that portions of the Eastern Seaboard are far past due for a major hurricane strike. A hurricane with the strength of the 1938, 1944 or 1954 ones would cause damage beyond the scope of imagination to Long Island due to the massive building which has gone there over the past 50-70 years. Considering there has not been a major hurricane to hit anywhere in the Northeast since Donna in 1960; there obviously is not the experiential base to draw upon.

Those living anywhere along the East Coast of the United States need to start thinking NOW about what to do if a hurricane does indeed form and heads north from the Bahamas. This is not the time to automatically discount this idea as pure foolishness or hysteria arousing hype. There is a very real hurricane threat for the Mid Atlantic coast all the way to New England over the next week or so.

I am sure as the weather develops, we will have a need to repeat what we did during the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike merry-go-round of storms. The next 3 weeks are sure to hold the distinct possibility of storms, hurricanes and rumors of hurricanes for many sections of the United States coastline form Texas to Maine. Such fun and games to look forward to.

Where Are the 140,000 People who faced “Certain Death”?

This just in–water is available in Liverpool, 30 miles from Galveston!

I wrote a post Friday night entitled “Epitaph for Those who Chose NOT to Get Out of Ike’s Way”. I thought Saturday that perhaps this was too harsh and the end result might not be as bad as feared. With each passing hour, I fear that my initial impressions were closer to the truth than everyone thought yesterday.

I just read that search and rescue crews have found a total of 2,000 people so far. This is great news except there were supposedly 140,000 who ignored the evacuation order. There is a growing knot in my gut that is telling me that the number of people who may have perished in hurricane Ike may be higher than anyone wants to think. The logical question in all this is very simply; where are these people?

We can safely assume that many of these people are stranded in places impossible to reach due to storm damage. We can safely assume many of these people made it to higher ground just before the storm hit. We can safely assume many people are getting to safety on their own as the waters go down. We can safely assume there were errors in the reported number of people who stayed behind in the first place. This will certainly account for a certain number of the missing. But…

I realize that crews have not been able to get to many areas due to flooding and debris on the road. Many areas are still under many feet of water. The disturbing question comes down to what became of the thousands of people calling 9-1-1 at the beginning of the storm? Of course all phone service went out soon after the storm hit and there was no way to contact anyone afterward.

Most everyone I know, especially those who worked the phones in the grief counseling center set up after Katrina, confirms the actual number of fatalities from Katrina far exceeded the “official” count. No one can offer any good explanation as to why the government refuses to divulge REAL numbers. Do they not know them? Are they afraid of public opinion? Is it bad politics?

I just heard there is a news blackout and helicopters are not allowed to shoot footage of many sites. Once again it appears FEMA is covering up the truth regarding just how bad this storm really was. Why do the authorities not want America to know the truth regarding how many people lose their lives in these powerful hurricanes? Where are the investigative reporters demanding answers?

Here are the facts as far as they have been reported:

*There were assumed (who counted them?) to be 140,000 people in mandatory evacuation areas who defied the order and stayed in their home (or did they?).

*Early in the storm, there were “thousands” of calls to 9-1-1 operators from these people asking for assistance, which of course was not available.

*As of Sunday afternoon, 2,000 of these people have been rescued and I believe the “official” fatality count is around 9 in the whole country.

*Video footage and firsthand accounts verify that all buildings near the coast subjected to the surge are gone. All that is left are the foundations.

*Numerous areas in the mandatory evacuation zones have been or still are under many feet of water. Many of the dwellings which are submerged are single story.

We have a troubling and very difficult problem on our hands. Where did the rest of these people go? The answer, at least in part, is one that no one wants to talk about or acknowledge. It is the ever growing elephant in the closet.

There is absolutely NO DOUBT that hundreds, if not thousands of these missing people were swept to their death with the storm surge. Their bodies will never be found because they were swept out into the Gulf of Mexico. I hate to be the one breaking this news, but it is the truth; just as it was with Katrina.

Hundreds, if not thousands of bodies will be found once the water levels drop and the search teams can get into remote areas. I do not like writing this any more than anyone likes reading it; but the sooner everyone comes to grips with the reality of the situation the sooner the grieving and healing can begin. The one undeniable fact is that stern warnings were given over and over again that anyone who stayed in certain places in certain types of structures faced “certain death”.

Unless somebody comes up with a logical explanation to account for the whereabouts of well over one hundred thousand people, the unfortunate reality is that many of these people perished. This is truly a heart wrenching thought. I pray this morbid post proves to be wrong. I pray there is some other logical explanation for the whereabouts of so many people. Unfortunately, I believe I could pray night and day for months to no avail.

New Research must be put into understanding storm surge with Ike type hurricane

Early reports seem to be indicating that once again, man’s knowledge of nature is an inexact science at best. A storm such as Ike never had set its sights on the United States before, so it is not surprising that information gleaned from dozens of “normal” hurricanes turned out to not be applicable to Ike. This is good news for some and horrible news for others.

The storm surge is USUALLY greatest directly to the northeast of the eye wall of a hurricane. This was certainly the case with both Katrina and Rita three years ago. The dire forecasts that hinted of 20 foot storm surge readings at Galveston and Houston proved greatly inflated, but readings farther north and east proved to be greater than expected. In fact, at this time, places such as Dauphin Island south of Mobile, Alabama are still cut off from the mainland due to Ike’s storm surge. This area was nowhere near where Ike came ashore.

Plaquemines Parish is the part of Louisiana which sticks out into the Gulf of Mexico south and west of New Orleans. This is where Katrina first struck before making landfall east of New Orleans. This Parish was heavily damaged by Katrina and was one of the last places to receive help in reconstruction. Perhaps one of the most astounding things reported this morning is that this Parish has worse flooding than it had from Katrina. That is simply unbelievable.

Cameron Parish and Calcasieu Parishes in Louisiana form the Lake Charles metro area. This was ground zero for hurricane Rita three years ago. Reports today say both places are encountering greater flooding with Ike than they did with Rita. Again, this is simply amazing and totally unexpected only a few days ago.

I have not seen or heard any definitive reports out of the Port Arthur area, but I would assume the flooding there to be fairly substantial. It appears that a preliminary thought is that when a super hurricane such as Ike approaches an area, the storm surge is not as great next to the eye, but instead stretches out for hundreds of miles. Of course this idea will be studied as scientists attempt to understand various things about Ike. But, the facts are that the surge itself was not as bad as anticipated in the areas closest to landfall.

I am afraid that Louisiana will end up being forgotten. Not only do very few people know about the damage done by Gustov, now many of the same areas are under water again due to Ike. I pray places such as Cameron Parish do not get left out as it did after Rita.

So, from first reports, the damage around Houston is substantial, but could have been far worse. At last report, no major damage was done to the various chemical plants and petroleum refineries. This is of course a huge deal considering what could have happened to the nation’s gasoline supply. At first report, the natural gas lines are undamaged, so there will little disruption of service.

The damage to Galveston was far less than expected ONLY because the storm surge did not reach the heights predicted. As in any disaster of this size and magnitude, there will pockets of horrific damage and other pockets of little damage.

Current estimates of 15 to 20 billion dollars in insurable damages will most certainly make Ike a major hurricane regardless if it made to that designation wind wise or not. We have only just begun to see the extent of damage and begin to honestly look at what can be learned from Ike. I am quite sure the end results will be much different than the beginning ones.

America; Houston has a problem–Ike WILL be far worse than Katrina

This just in–water is available in Liverpool, 30 miles from Galveston!

Do not expect any documentable real news from Ike’s strike until later today or probably tomorrow. As in any disaster, initial reports will be too rosy or too dire. It will take days for the full scope of this disaster to be known. No one has a clue how many people ignored the mandatory evacuation orders, so those involved with search and rescue do not know how many people they are looking for. Estimates of close to 150,000 people in the counties affected make this a daunting task for sure.

Due to the size of Ike, hurricane conditions will continue to buffet the entire area most of today. Do not expect to see anything but the barest of live of coverage from the worst areas. It is simply not safe for anyone to go out until the water recedes and the winds die down. Houston must endure many hours of relentless high tides and winds. No definitive details of its fate will be known today.

High tide in Galveston matched pretty much when Ike came ashore. Only time will tell what has become of the estimated 15,000 people who stayed and refused to leave the island. The honest fear is that from Galveston all the way to the western suburbs of New Orleans when the water recedes what will be found is carnage due to the high numbers of people who failed to leave the areas.

The time has come in America for mandatory evacuations to mean just that. If people refuse to leave, they should either be arrested and hauled to some secure facility or sign a paper acknowledging NO emergency services are available and no lawsuits can be filed. Images of emergency personnel risking their lives to save those who at the very last minute “chickened out” and wanted to escape the storm make me very upset.

What good does a “mandatory evacuation” order mean if 20% of the people ignore it? The entire evacuation process in this country is a joke. Evacuations are ordered when not needed and not ordered when they are. People pick and choose which “mandatory” evacuation orders they want to abide by and then expect to be rescued when they ignore such orders.

For the next few days, just like after a major earthquake, the emphasis is on search and rescue. Those trained in this field are called “first responders” and their mission is to find, treat and rescue anyone still alive after this disaster. Only after those in critical situations are rescued will the search for those who died start in earnest. Only after that will the emphasis switch to helping those NOT in life threatening situations.

This tragedy will far surpass Katrina simply due to the amount of people involved and the size of the area covered. Just as in Katrina’s case, there will be hundreds of thousands of people with no power, no jobs and pretty much no house for weeks if not months. Sure, in a few days look for every spare electric truck in the country to head toward this area to help get the power on. But, along the coast there will be no power and no help for a very long time.

Keep this in mind; there are still thousands of people in Louisiana and Mississippi and Alabama who have never gotten repairs made to their homes after Katrina three years ago. There is simply not enough crews, money and charities around to get to everyone. Now this disaster will be added into the mix. Everyone knows those with the most money will get repairs first, for they can afford to pay cash. Those who must hassle with insurance companies many times go months and years before receiving the funds needed to get roofs fixed and other repairs.

Just as in Katrina and Rita’s cases, there will be thousands of people who had no insurance and who must depend on FEMA or charities to provide assistance. Again, due to the size of this disaster, every governmental and charitable organization in existence will be taxed to the max over the next few months and years.

Make no mistake about it. We will be dealing with various effects of Ike for years. There are NO quick fixes after a major hurricane hit. Everything will go in slow motion for quite some time due to a multitude of issues from contaminated water to broken glass to electric wires down to hundreds of thousands of buildings which must be gutted before the mold makes them uninhabitable to …

As this drama turns the page to what comes next, please continue to pray for those whose lives have been turned upside down and inside out by this storm. Honestly, we will not know much of anything about the scope of this disaster for days. In the meantime I pray America realizes that like it or not; we have Katrina #2 on our hands—only worse.

Epitaph for Those who Chose NOT to Get Out of Ike’s Way

My heart is screaming within me. My stomach is tied in knots so thick they will never come undone. Everything within me wants to grab America by the neck and shake her to wake her up. This is a night unlike no others in the history of our nation. Never before will so many people lose their lives as will happen over the next 12-18 hours. If fatalities were really counted, the toll from Ike would number in the tens of thousands. When has America ever lost tens of thousands of its citizens in one night?

Estimates of well over 100,000 defying mandatory evacuation orders and willingly and many times proudly saying they would never leave their home are dead men and women walking. When the National Weather Service says “certain death” they mean it. Yet, thousands will party until they die while others will stubbornly be praying for God’s protection even as they drown. Others will perish because they never heard a storm was coming and still others will die in the line of duty trying to protect and serve others.

My soul cries out and I want to shake my fists in anger at the stupidity of fools. We tried to warn them not to trust in models and past experiences. No one who lived through the 1900 hurricane was there to tell them what would happen if they stayed. I cannot stand to think of what the dawn will bring and worse yet, Sunday morning’s dawn. The smell of death will line the coast from Galveston to Morgan City as those too stubborn, foolish or stupid to listen to wisdom will perish.

God uses the analogy of what is happening tonight in Texas and Louisiana to emphasize the need to listen to and take heed to wisdom in Proverbs chapter one. Before viewing the extent of the devastation, find a Bible and read the second half of the first chapter of Proverbs and then look at the images that will flood our television sets for weeks to come. Think of Proverbs chapter one when you pay 5 dollars for gas because the heart and soul of the American petroleum industry has been ripped out.

Think about Proverbs one when you see the body bags of those who refused to listen to wisdom and paid the price. Think about Proverbs one when you see neighborhoods under water in Houston and people clinging to rooftops hoping against hope to be rescued. Think about Proverbs one when you see skyscrapers with all their windows blown out and flooded streets coated with oil and water contaminated with chemicals of every sort and kind.

Think about Proverbs one when you see places such as Port Arthur totally inundated and the many oil refineries shut down and flooded. Think about Proverbs one when the politicians and talking heads descend on Texas like a batch of locusts to show everyone how much they care. Where were they before the storm? Where were the words of encouragement and promises of help after the storm?

Think about Proverbs one when images of what used to be small coastal communities are now just foundations sitting barren in the sand. Think about Proverbs one when those who trusted in seawalls are inundated with water that laughed at the walls. Think about Proverbs one when the final price tag of Ike is ever figured out, and when the insurance premiums of everyone go up.

Yes, my soul weeps for I know many people will needlessly die this night because they refused to listen to wisdom. They thought they could withstand the forces of a hurricane which is more powerful than any to hit the United States. They thought they could have the time of their life having a hurricane party as their life ends in a giant wave of water. They thought they were smarter than wisdom and they will pay the ultimate price for their folly.

Millions will see all the horror in the next few days and shake their heads and say “what a waste”. Many who live along the coasts of America will then proceed to move on with their lives and never learn a lesson from Ike. Many will one day face the same end result as those facing it tonight as the folly of their stubbornness finally catches up with them.

God help those who through no fault of their own got caught in this storm. God have mercy on those who thought they were bigger than Him. God, please forgive those who cry out to you in their final minutes as they finally realize how stupid and sinful they were. All any of us can do now is give those in harm’s way to God for the protection of their souls.

What a truly sad night this is in America.

Ike Storm Surge Update–Critical all the way to Cameron, LA

Looking at recent data gives an even more chilling report of what is starting and will continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Storm surge heights of 20 to 25 feet are now forecast as far east as Cameron, Louisiana. Forecasts are now calling for major flooding of Port Arthur and the same kind of catastrophic inundation of coastal communities as Galveston is expecting all the way past Cameron. The same dire warning of “certain death” is now in the advisories stretching all the way from Galveston to Cameron. Incredible.

As Dr. Jeff Masters wrote this morning; Ike may just end up being the most powerful hurricane to ever hit the United States. Others were stronger, but much smaller. Ike’s size is absolutely mind boggling. The extent of the storm surge is staggering. Current forecasts of 20 foot storm surge going up Galveston Bay is catastrophic in nature. Without question, Ike will go down in the history books as the storm with the most devastating storm surge on record.

What Ike is lacking in winds it is making up for in the huge surge. I shudder to think of what the final death toll will be based on the number of people who defiantly said they did not believe this storm would pose that big of risk. There are good things and bad things with rating hurricanes on a scale of 1 to 5. Ike will be a category 2 or marginal 3 at landfall, but due to its size and power, the damage will be far greater than many smaller category 4 storms.

To keep this in perspective, Carla’s storm surge will be surpassed long before Ike actually hits even though Carla was a category 4 storm. The duration of battering hurricane force winds, incredibly high tides and hours upon hours of surge conditions are going to weaken and damage many structures and cause damage normally associated with stronger hurricanes. Ike will forever be known as the monster he has become.

Those who choose to ride out this storm better pray they are beyond the reach of surging waters and waves relentlessly crashing ashore. Many homes were flooded in Katrina by a surge that went far further inland than anyone expected. How could they expect it, for it had never happened before. I am afraid we are dealing with the same situation here with Ike. Conditions never before experienced are developing with no historical data to determine just how bad things will get.

Another overlooked facet of this storm will be the flooding produced further north and east. Estimates of 6-8 inches are forecasted as far north as here in St. Louis. This heavy rain will be falling on areas already flooded once this year and some twice. Historically, most huge hurricanes cause major flooding far from the coast. I imagine Ike will be no exception.

Houston’s High Stakes Gamble; Betting Ike Won’t Explode

At this late stage of the game, there is little that can be done but wait and pray. I do pray that the decision made to not evacuate huge sections of Houston was a wise one. This is somewhat like placing a bet on the highest stakes game ever played. That which is in the “ante” are hundreds of thousands of people’s lives. Whether I agree with the decision or anyone else makes no difference. All anyone can do is pray for the best in light of an unprecedented situation.

Hurricane Ike has somewhat strengthened overnight and has held its course heading for landfall near the west end of Galveston Island. There is still a slight chance the hurricane may move east, but there is a greater chance it might move slightly west. It certainly appears at the moment that all the dire forecasts for Galveston could come to pass.

The “wildcard” in all this is what will happen to Houston proper. Galveston island does act as a barrier island which protects Houston to some degree. But, the barrier islands did little to protect the Mississippi coast from Katrina’s wrath. All anyone can do is pray that Ike doesn’t produce a 30 foot surge, for if it does, then Houston is in for a world of hurt.

As impressive as the surge estimates are, I am intrigued by the overtopping wave estimates. I can not think of a storm where there was discussion of 50 foot waves. I do not believe very many people stop and think about how high 50’ is. I will say one thing for sure; if an area is hit with even a 25’ surge along with 50’ waves, that area will not be there come Saturday evening.

Various media stories are flush with reports of people fed up with false alarms and the hassles of evacuations. These people are going to defy mandatory evacuation orders and take their chances riding out the storm. Depending on where they are located and where Ike ends up hitting; the images of these people will be the last anyone sees of them.

Many knowledgeable people in the Galveston/Houston area are appalled by the apathetic attitude that has been manifested by all parties toward this storm. This is no doubt due to the Rita fiasco three years ago coupled with the Gustov non-event a few weeks ago. As justifiable as people’s reluctance to act is; when all is said and done, it will result in “justifiable suicide” at best. One can defy man’s decrees and live through it. One cannot defy nature’s decrees and expect anything but what she has to give.

As this day drags on, Ike will no doubt have ups and downs and plenty of wobbles. Unless something unexpected happens, Ike will strike Texas somewhere southwest of Houston late tonight or early Saturday morning. By Sunday, Ike will be long gone and will be flooding Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri. By Monday, Ike could very well be in the Atlantic Ocean. So, whatever happens will be quick.

When the winds die down and the rains cease and crews are able to get out Sunday to survey the damage caused by Ike; I think everyone in this country will be in for a shock. I think what will be seen will surpass Katrina as far as damage and possible fatalities. I think Ike will so damage the Oil and Gas business that we will see spikes that last for at least a month. I think the repercussions of Ike will still be felt months from now along with the finger pointing and name calling.

Americans lovetheir freedom and do not like someone telling them what to do. Many who cherish their freedom include riding out hurricanes as part of the “Bill of Rights”. In a way, I understand, for it is like those who choose to smoke. If they want to destroy their body, it is their choice. But, if a person makes the decision to defy orders, they should forfeit their ability to sue for damages later.

I can only pray that those who willingly decided to defy mandatory evacuation orders live to tell about it. I can only pray that those who did not issue mandatory evacuation orders do not live to regret it. I can only pray that those who will spend the next two days “hunkered down” as they followed orders to NOT evacuate do not end up in the fatality statistics.

The next thirty-six hours will tell who the winners and losers were in this highest of stakes poker game. May we all pray, that for the good of all, the losers are few and somehow the losses are minimized. Please pray for the “huddled masses” in their bunkers all around Houston.

Hanna and Ike; Condition Critical for Carolina’s and Northeast

As usual, there is massive disagreement among the hurricane experts concerning what will happen with Hanna and Ike. Few hurricanes have taken the kind of beating Hanna has taken and live to tell about it. Hanna has, as the old “Timex” commercial said; taken a licking and keeps on ticking.

I agree with most forecasters that there is no basis to believe Hanna is finished. To the contrary, as conditions improve for development today and tonight, the storm should gradually regain hurricane status and start moving north, FAR EAST of Florida. Most top experts are now moving Hanna’s landfall a little further east toward the Wilmington, North Carolina area.

Very few storms could endure the kind of wind shear Hanna dealt with yesterday without totally falling apart. Although weakened, Hanna has “hung in there” and is now ready to tap into nearly perfect conditions for development. I am sorry to be redundant, but it is vitally important for those living anywhere between Charleston, South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina to not take this storm lightly.

Far too much emphasis is placed on the wind speeds of hurricanes. Tropical Storm Fay recently showed that just as much damage can be done by a very slow moving and wet tropical storm as a fast moving category 1 or weak category 2 hurricane. People tend to forget that when an area is inundated with 15 to 20 inches of rain, not only does the area flood, but the ground gets so saturated huge trees topple with only 50 mph winds. Just ask former President Carter about this, for Fay caused a huge tree to fall on his Georgia home.

There are two major concerns this morning. First is the looming possibility that Hanna will make landfall as a strengthening hurricane as opposed to a dying one. Gustov hit as a weakening hurricane as did that last great Carolina hurricane Floyd. Andrew hit southern Florida years ago as a strengthening hurricane of probable category 5 strength. Charley hit the west coast of Florida as a rapidly strengthening storm. In both cases the damage was greatly magnified by the fact the storm was gaining strength as it hit land.

The second concern is that if Hanna is still gaining strength and hits farther east in North Carolina, she may end up retaining hurricane status into Virginia and become one of the East Coast Hurricanes which pose grave danger to the major population centers from Washington to Boston. Many have spoken and written of the potential catastrophic damage which could occur if a major hurricane struck either the Chesapeake Bay area or New York.

It has been a number of years since there were a true major hurricane strike these areas. Again, the concern should not just be wind; storm surge and flooding rains would be the much bigger headache. Some of the worst flooding events in history in states such as Pennsylvania and New York have come from just the remnants of huge hurricanes which hit the Gulf Coast or Mid Atlantic coastline and then lingered over the Northeast.

The remnants of Gustov are inundating Arkansas right now with what will surely be major flooding. Even up here is St. Louis where I live there are flood warnings in effect for the next three days as the heavy rain associated with what is left of a once great hurricane slowly move over the region. Flooding actually causes as much or more damage than wind except in a comparatively small area near where a hurricane hits.

The threat from Hanna is that it could hit as an intensifying category 3 hurricane and inflict major damage along the coastline. Equally great is the threat for massive flooding not only in the Carolina’s but Virginia and points north and east. There is also the threat Hanna could get back over the ocean and redevelop again into a hurricane which would impact New York and New England.

Ike is presenting forecasters with nothing but headaches. There seems to be no universal conscientious among the models or forecasters as to where Ike will go once it gets to the Bahamas. There appears to be equal probability of it going into the Gulf of Mexico (watch out New Orleans), Florida (watch out Miami and points north) or along the Hanna’s path (watch out Carolina’s and points north).

Obviously two of these scenarios would be horrible. If another major hurricane churned toward New Orleans next week, the entire scene would be horrific based on what just happened with Gustov. Worse yet would be back to back hits by Hanna and Ike in North Carolina and Virginia. Again, in this scenario, the problem is massive and catastrophic flooding of huge areas inundated by incredible amounts of rain falling within a week’s period of time.

It goes without saying that starting Friday night or Saturday morning when Hanna strikes through next week when Ike strikes somewhere; there is going to be multitudes of hurting, scared and frustrated people in the United States. Those who end up being directly impacted by these storms could care less about politics, sports and the stock market. Those whose lives are turned upside down by hurricane force winds or flooding rains are only interested in survival.

Please keep the millions of who will be facing extremely difficult times the next two weeks in your prayers. Also, please keep the poor people of Haiti in your prayers. Hanna has dumped copious amounts of rain on a country already drenched by Gustov. The humanitarian crisis in that country is beyond description. Thank you for reading and I will write more as the situation evolves today and tomorrow.