Watch Our for Late Season Tropical Development and Early Season Cold and Snow

It will be very interesting to see what does or does not develop in the Caribbean this week. There are numerous areas of disturbed weather which might affect the United States or could end up being much ado about nothing. All interests from Texas to Florida and from Florida to North Carolina must keep at least one eye squinting at the tropics.

The system off the east coast of northern Florida will produce high tides and potentially heavy rains as it drifts west. If it stays far enough south, it could emerge from the west coast of Florida in few days and once in the Gulf of Mexico could develop into some kind of a hybrid storm or even a tropical storm. Although no one is stating this possibility in any forecasts, there is the potential for a “Fay” type event in the exact same areas Fay attacked earlier in the summer.

The system south of Puerto Rico is currently labeled “invest” and certainly needs to be investigated. The models are all over the map and although the potential to curve northeast exists, there is greater probability the system will head toward Hispaniola and from there who knows where. The other current “invest” is not anything to be concerned about.

With two Mexican storms hitting along its west coast, coupled with the front making its way across the United States, there is always the potential for the tail end of these systems to stall in the Gulf and turn into a tropical system. The western Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico must be watched this week for any development.

Boise, Idaho had its earliest recorded snow the other day. Does this mean anything? Probably not, but it is indicative of some very cold air in the area. Of greater interest is the abundant snow in Wyoming. Most of the state received a very heavy early season snow the past few days.

Most independent experts are calling for the high probability of a much colder and wetter early winter this year. This translates into the potential for November snows over much of the Midwest, Ohio valley and northeast. The wise traveler would at least take this into consideration when thinking of the very late Thanksgiving this year.

I live out west of St. Louis, Missouri and remember distinctly early November of 1991 when we had a high temperature of 21 degrees followed by 6 inches of snow. Both were records for so early in the year, but proof that even this far south, it is possible to see a very early winter. What is interesting to note is that winter ended up being very mild after the brutal early start.

The pattern this year favors more what we saw during the winters of 1989-90 and again in 2000-2001. December 1989 was one of the most brutal periods much of the country ever saw so early in the winter. I remember days where the HIGH temperature was -10 degrees in St. Louis. This had never happened and hasn’t happened since. January of 1990 was as mild as December was cold. February of 1990 was almost as brutally cold as December had been.

These “bookend” winters are some of the most extreme. Not only is there the swinging back and forth to deal with, there is the problems associated with bad weather in December and all the traveling and shopping that take place then. On the other side of the coin is the fun and games associated with a mild January. I recall vividly the Pope riding through St. Louis with everyone in short sleeved shirts as the temperature hit 70 in the middle of January 1999.

Regardless of how this winter plays out, there is bound to be hardship due to the economic situation. A bad November/December could be disastrous for many who are already strapped for money. I recall vividly the almost $500 natural gas bill we had after the wicked December cold in 1989. That was a lot of money to pay for gas back almost twenty years ago.

If people are faced with super high utility bills on top of everything else going on, this early winter could be the straw that breaks many homeowner’s backs. I pray that either the long range forecasts turn out to not be as harsh as possible or that something breaks in the financial realm to soften the blow of what could be a very difficult couple of months coming up.

The Name Game; Laura is wasted so what do Marco, Nana and Omar Hold in store?

The only way to have continuity is to have a standard which is not changed by the whims of agenda driven people. I honestly do not know which is worse, the failure to name the storm which came into the Carolina’s late last week or the naming of the ridiculous area of disturbed weather in the middle of nowhere today. Both decisions on the part of the NHC make a person question what standards they are using as criteria for naming storms.

At any rate, the name “Laura” has now been wasted on a subtropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean which might impact Iceland. Kyle must have forgotten his passport, for he never came close to the United States. The past week has not been a very good one for those who follow, forecast, track and name tropical systems. In all three cases, mistakes were made and the end result is that none of the three storms caused any great amount of hardship for anyone.

Our eyes must now turn to what lies ahead. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico must keep an eye on an area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan. Whether it develops into a named system or not, it promises to bring much rain to Florida this week. Not a good omen for the baseball crazed fans in Tampa.

The system marching across the Atlantic is one which stands a good chance of developing. There are other areas of disturbed weather exiting Africa which could end up turning into one of those long track hurricanes which can take a week or more to get close to our part of the world. At this time of the year, the Caribbean must be closely monitored for developing systems.

Most of the experts are thinking that there should be at least three more named storms. Whether Marco, Nana and Omar end up turning into Ike type storms or harmless ones like Laura cannot be determined at this time. Whether any upcoming storms will afflict the Gulf Coast, Florida or the East Coast is not available to know at this time. All we can do is look at the overall pattern and deduce that it is conducive to the development of tropical storms.

This year has been very active in one sense (twelve named storms), but very strange in others. Although hurricanes Dolly, Gustov and Ike did inflict major damage to Texas and Louisiana; tropical storm Fay may have actually effected more people though its relentless rain in Florida. Although the Carolina’s have been hit with two tropical storms this year, the recent no-name storm perhaps was more intense in some ways than either named storm.

What is important to understand is that October is still hurricane season. Some of the more impressive October hurricanes which stayed south of the United States were Mitch in 1998 which raked Honduras with torrential rains for days, Iris in 2001 which was a major category 4 hurricane that hit Belize and Keith in 2000 which struck Mexico twice.

The top three October hurricanes to hit the United States were Hazel in 1954 which was a huge category 4 hurricane which struck the South/North Carolina border October 15 of that year, Opal in 1993 which struck Pensacola, Florida as a major category 3 hurricane on October 4, and of course Wilma in 2005 which crashed into southwest Florida on October 24^th of that infamous year.

Even though September is historically the most active month for hurricanes, October is roughly equivalent to August as far as potential for development. Due to seasonal cooling, the deeper into October we get, the more the threat shifts further south. All interests along the Gulf Coast, Florida and as far north as North Carolina must stay vigilant the next few weeks. Only after the middle of the month can this season start to be put in the archives.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.

Hanna could still explode; Ike waiting in the wings

My heart was deeply moved by some pictures someone alerted me to via a comment on one of these hurricane blog posts. Please take a moment and look at the damage hurricane/tropical storm Hanna did to the second biggest city in Haiti.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ifrc/

I know that the stripped hills and other factors make flooding occur more often and worse in Haiti than any other country in the Western Hemisphere. But, the facts are these:

1. A tropical storm when parked over a given area long enough, will produce enough rain to flood just about any location regardless of the terrain.

2. Hurricane winds are a huge part of the problems brought about by tropical storms, but wind is not the ONLY problem. Water from rain and storm surges cause as much damage as wind during many storms.

3. If the countryside has been stripped of trees and other vegetation, flooding rains will be magnified and the damage far more catastrophic than in areas where the natural vegetation is still there.

There are two types of tropical storms or minor hurricanes which can inflict major damage upon a community, county or state. First is the slow moving “wet” storms such as tropical storm Fay was last month. Fay never produced any winds which caused any damage to speak of. Yet, tropical storm Fay caused millions upon millions of dollars of damage through flooding rains which would not quit. When it rains heavily for 36 or more hours straight; there is going to be major flooding in flat areas especially.

The second “bad” storm is the one which is rapidly intensifying as it comes ashore. These storms produce much more wind damage than a slow moving or diminishing hurricane would. The classic example of this was hurricane Andrew. When it came ashore, it was going through an intensification process every bit as impressive as hurricane Ike did two days ago. No one would ever want to be near a hurricane going from tropical storm strength to category 4 in a matter of hours.

The concern with storms such as Hanna are that they are huge and that this storm will go from having “sat” in the Bahamas for days to off the New England coast in a matter of less than two days. When a storm takes off like a rocket, it rarely has time to intensify past a category 1 but its speed does tend to amplify the winds and cause more damage than a slow moving storm.

Hanna is not to be dismissed as just a bad Nor’easter. Hanna will retain the potential to become a strong category 1 or higher storm all the way until it reaches land. Last year, Humberto set a record for being the fastest storm to ever become a hurricane. It went from an area of disturbed weather south of Houston to a very strong category 1 hurricane that slammed into far southeast Texas in a matter of hours. NEVER should a tropical system be dismissed as harmless. If it is named, it needs to be watched closely.

Hanna may go down as a very minor hurricane but we do not know. In 2006, Ernesto was the only the hurricane of consequence to affect the United States due to a sudden El Nino in the Pacific. Ernesto COULD have been a huge monster storm causing untold damage if it had not lingered over Florida. If it would have had more time over the warm Gulf Stream waters, it would have exploded and come ashore as a much stronger hurricane than it did.

Because Ernesto was so lightly thought of at the time, my brother and sister-in-law went ahead and took their yearly vacation to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina RIGHT AS ERNESTO CAME ASHORE. They lived to tell about their ordeal, but they should have never been allowed to be where they were. Why the road were not closed off to traffic going to the beach is a mystery known only to those involved. If Ernesto would have slowed down and lingered by even another hour, I fear that my wife would have lost her sister that fateful day.

The best guess with Hanna is that it will produce a lot of rain and wind from the coast of North Carolina all the way up I-95 to Boston. It may not cause much damage, but it sure did in Haiti. Once Hanna makes her move then Ike can decide whether to go west into the Gulf of Mexico to harass New Orleans or move up the Florida coast to finish what Hanna started. As powerful as Ike is now, he will weaken in the days ahead. How much he strengthens again is only conjecture at the moment. The experts do expect Ike to be a major hurricane affecting someone by this time next week. Let us all pray it is not Haiti.

This year’s “GHI” hurricanes will, if nothing else will go down in history as providing hours of hair pulling stress for hurricane forecasters. In fact, if Fay if included, then the “FGHI” hurricanes most definitely will live as a testimony to the good, the getting better and the still horrible art of hurricane forecasting. Despite the great strides made the past few years in being able to determine the strength and track of storms, there is still no way to absolutely say 4 or 5 days in advance where a storm is going and how strong it will be. At least we will not have another storm “sneak up” on us like in Galveston a hundred years ago.

Hanna and Ike; Condition Critical for Carolina’s and Northeast

As usual, there is massive disagreement among the hurricane experts concerning what will happen with Hanna and Ike. Few hurricanes have taken the kind of beating Hanna has taken and live to tell about it. Hanna has, as the old “Timex” commercial said; taken a licking and keeps on ticking.

I agree with most forecasters that there is no basis to believe Hanna is finished. To the contrary, as conditions improve for development today and tonight, the storm should gradually regain hurricane status and start moving north, FAR EAST of Florida. Most top experts are now moving Hanna’s landfall a little further east toward the Wilmington, North Carolina area.

Very few storms could endure the kind of wind shear Hanna dealt with yesterday without totally falling apart. Although weakened, Hanna has “hung in there” and is now ready to tap into nearly perfect conditions for development. I am sorry to be redundant, but it is vitally important for those living anywhere between Charleston, South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina to not take this storm lightly.

Far too much emphasis is placed on the wind speeds of hurricanes. Tropical Storm Fay recently showed that just as much damage can be done by a very slow moving and wet tropical storm as a fast moving category 1 or weak category 2 hurricane. People tend to forget that when an area is inundated with 15 to 20 inches of rain, not only does the area flood, but the ground gets so saturated huge trees topple with only 50 mph winds. Just ask former President Carter about this, for Fay caused a huge tree to fall on his Georgia home.

There are two major concerns this morning. First is the looming possibility that Hanna will make landfall as a strengthening hurricane as opposed to a dying one. Gustov hit as a weakening hurricane as did that last great Carolina hurricane Floyd. Andrew hit southern Florida years ago as a strengthening hurricane of probable category 5 strength. Charley hit the west coast of Florida as a rapidly strengthening storm. In both cases the damage was greatly magnified by the fact the storm was gaining strength as it hit land.

The second concern is that if Hanna is still gaining strength and hits farther east in North Carolina, she may end up retaining hurricane status into Virginia and become one of the East Coast Hurricanes which pose grave danger to the major population centers from Washington to Boston. Many have spoken and written of the potential catastrophic damage which could occur if a major hurricane struck either the Chesapeake Bay area or New York.

It has been a number of years since there were a true major hurricane strike these areas. Again, the concern should not just be wind; storm surge and flooding rains would be the much bigger headache. Some of the worst flooding events in history in states such as Pennsylvania and New York have come from just the remnants of huge hurricanes which hit the Gulf Coast or Mid Atlantic coastline and then lingered over the Northeast.

The remnants of Gustov are inundating Arkansas right now with what will surely be major flooding. Even up here is St. Louis where I live there are flood warnings in effect for the next three days as the heavy rain associated with what is left of a once great hurricane slowly move over the region. Flooding actually causes as much or more damage than wind except in a comparatively small area near where a hurricane hits.

The threat from Hanna is that it could hit as an intensifying category 3 hurricane and inflict major damage along the coastline. Equally great is the threat for massive flooding not only in the Carolina’s but Virginia and points north and east. There is also the threat Hanna could get back over the ocean and redevelop again into a hurricane which would impact New York and New England.

Ike is presenting forecasters with nothing but headaches. There seems to be no universal conscientious among the models or forecasters as to where Ike will go once it gets to the Bahamas. There appears to be equal probability of it going into the Gulf of Mexico (watch out New Orleans), Florida (watch out Miami and points north) or along the Hanna’s path (watch out Carolina’s and points north).

Obviously two of these scenarios would be horrible. If another major hurricane churned toward New Orleans next week, the entire scene would be horrific based on what just happened with Gustov. Worse yet would be back to back hits by Hanna and Ike in North Carolina and Virginia. Again, in this scenario, the problem is massive and catastrophic flooding of huge areas inundated by incredible amounts of rain falling within a week’s period of time.

It goes without saying that starting Friday night or Saturday morning when Hanna strikes through next week when Ike strikes somewhere; there is going to be multitudes of hurting, scared and frustrated people in the United States. Those who end up being directly impacted by these storms could care less about politics, sports and the stock market. Those whose lives are turned upside down by hurricane force winds or flooding rains are only interested in survival.

Please keep the millions of who will be facing extremely difficult times the next two weeks in your prayers. Also, please keep the poor people of Haiti in your prayers. Hanna has dumped copious amounts of rain on a country already drenched by Gustov. The humanitarian crisis in that country is beyond description. Thank you for reading and I will write more as the situation evolves today and tomorrow.

The Good–Gustov; The Bad–Hanna; The Ugly–???

Even before Gustov officially makes landfall it is obvious the storm is NOT going to be Katrina number two. It could have been and if not for the cooler water, wind shear and dry air making its way into the system it could have been a very bad hurricane. As it turns out, Gustov will greatly impact some, especially in southern Louisiana, but will not produce the catastrophic flooding once feared.

So, does this make all the various government agencies and officials who prompted two million people to evacuate wrong? I believe only a fool would think so. Gustov provided everyone from the mayor of New Orleans to FEMA the opportunity to show the nation how much has improved in the realm of emergency management since the dark days of Katrina.

The powers that be really had no choice, politically or humanitarian wise, but to order the evacuation of New Orleans and surrounding areas. Just two days ago as Gustov wiped western Cuba off the map and appeared headed for the warm water loop north of Cuba, all models were forecasting a rapid intensification to a category 4 or even 5 storm. In light of the available information, there was no other course of action which could be taken than to order total evacuation of a city that sits many feet below sea level.

Whether through prayers or the intricate variety of factors which make or break a hurricane; Gustov never ramped up and in fact lost much of his strength after crossing Cuba. Many experts think this was because of cooler waters left over in the Gulf after Fay. Others think it was because of a combination of factors. I will let these experts figure out the reasons why later, but for now we should all be thankful that we are not going to be dealing with Katrina two later today and in the days/weeks/months/years to come.

As good as the news may end up being regarding Gustov, the news regarding Hanna is not so good. While everyone has been glued to the developing saga in the Gulf, Hanna has been enduring everything that would normally kill a tropical storm as she sits near the Bahamas. Hanna will shortly make her move north and once tapped into the Gulf Stream, watch out.

Current forecast tracks take Hanna into Georgia or South Carolina as a category 1 storm. Independent forecasters are quite sure Hanna will become every bit as strong as Gustov is and end up in the Myrtle Beach area of South Carolina or little further north. With a potential landfall of Friday, this gives all parties a few days to prepare, and the wise people would do just that.

What appears to be taking shape is a hit late in the week from Hanna and then a week later from what should become Ike. Both storms are taking aim at the Carolinas. There might be one more storm in this burst of activity, but that is debatable. The experts are saying we could see a lull for three weeks before a final burst in tropical activity in October. I am quite sure that for many, that is the last thing they will want to think about.

In conclusion, I pray the response to an incoming storm that has been manifested with Gustov will be just as strong for Hanna and any storms after her. I pray that the massive array of support in place for Gustov was not strictly political, but shows the commitment by FEMA and other governmental agencies to protect our country from natural enemies just as they do from human ones. When you think about it; isn’t an enemy an enemy, regardless of how it looks or the weapons it possesses?

If all the resources of the United States military are available to help in a disaster, there is no reason to believe there will ever be a fiasco such as Katrina again. But, if such resources are withheld or spread too thin, then the burden falls again on the private sector to prepare people and help them as first responders. In all but the worst disasters the military should not be involved, but if there is a chance we could see anything like Katrina, then I see no harm in enlisting the very best resources available to help, protect and serve the citizens of this country.

Fay “could” end up more of a headache than Katrina was

There is little, if any historical data to compare what Tropical Storm Fay is doing to. Thus, logic dictates there is even less data to look at as to what it COULD do. This little storm has managed to cause even the most skilled forecasters to scratch their heads in utter bewilderment. If the scenario should happen to play out over the next few days this storm would make history.

Weather events do not happen by luck, chance or coincidence. There are meteorological reasons for why a storm does what it does. Storms do not have a mind of their own which enables them to deliberately do things to aggravate forecasters. Storms end up doing what the various aspects of weather governing it tell it to do.

One of the most distressing possible ways the whole Fay saga could end is if the storm makes history by hitting near Jacksonville, Florida as category 1 hurricane and moves west back across Florida and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico intact. If, and the probabilities of this taking place are very slim, this were to happen the end results from Fay could be worse than Katrina three years ago.

Winds blow counterclockwise around a hurricane. Katrina came up from the south and because of this, the storm surge ended up being over twenty feet along the Mississippi coast. The initial damage in New Orleans from Katrina was minimal because it sat on the western side of the hurricane moving north. The New Orleans catastrophe came about when Katrina moved ashore and the winds switched to the north and blew the waters from Lake Pontchartrain into the city which sits below sea level.

If Fay were to move west from Florida towards New Orleans, the potential disaster would dwarf Katrina. Why? Because the westward movement of the storm would produce a prolonged period of NORTH winds ahead of the approaching storm. Instead of a storm surge preceding the hurricane like Katrina, the storm surge would follow the storm and be minimal. The greater danger would be the north winds over a prolonged time blowing the waters of Lake Pontchartrain into the city of New Orleans.

Due to the lay of the land and where the city of New Orleans sits, there is actually very little danger of a storm surge inundating the city. The potential problems have always laid in the scenario of a storm moving in from the southeast or east and generating a prolonged period of hurricane force winds over Lake Pontchartrain. Unless a person has been to the area it is difficult to picture how a lake could cause more problems than an ocean; but such is the case in New Orleans.

No one knows at this time what Fay will end up doing. It may come ashore again and more or less just fizzle out. It may come ashore and move to the northwest into Georgia and help break the longstanding drought there. It may emerge on the west side of Florida, move south and make a loop following the same path it just took. It may emerge into the warm waters of the Gulf, become a hurricane and move west directly toward New Orleans.

This storm has a history of NOT doing what the computer models think it should do. Because of this, it would be highly advantageous for anyone from the panhandle of Florida to New Orleans to be acutely aware of the movements of Fay over the next few days. Some models and some hurricane experts think the greatest danger is that Fay emerges off the west coast of Florida, immediately intensifies and follows Ivan’s 1994 path which would put Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida at high risk.

Needless to say, the next three to seven days could end up being at the very least, interesting and at the worst, a disaster which would equal or exceed Katrina in some respects. And as if this were not enough to be concerned about, out in the Atlantic is the next storm which is slowly taking shape and could be buffeting some portion of the United States coastline by this time next week.

I would highly recommend anyone with interests on the Gulf Coast to monitor what Fay is doing very closely along with the next storm. The remainder of this hurricane season could end up being very active and one that presents forecasters with storms such as Fay which are nearly impossible to forecast. As in any hurricane season, the next 2 months are the most dangerous and especially so this year. Vigilance is the key word for the day and for the days to come.