There is plenty to be nervous about

I would not say that I am afraid, for I am not; but I will readily admit that the incredible things happening with the weather and economy make me very nervous.  There is a huge difference between being afraid and being nervous.  One is counterproductive and the other is the natural reaction to uneasy situations.

Just four years ago I would have been working 20 hours per day finding relief supplies for tornado victims in the St. Louis area and flooding victims in southern Missouri.  I know my days of trying to “save the world” after every disaster ended some time ago, but I am still deeply impacted as I see images of destruction and hear reports of catastrophic flooding soon to cause untold problems in many areas.  Throw into the mix some of the worst wildfires Texas has ever seen and you have a truly troubling situation building.

I study weather and I have seen from multiple sources that the upcoming month of May will be MUCH COOLER than normal throughout much of the USA except along the Gulf coast.  The last two times this happened were 2005 and 2008 which were years that produced hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma; and 2008 which produced hurricanes Gustov and Ike.  Many experts are already warning of the imminent possibility of multiple strikes by huge hurricanes along the United States coastline this summer.

For a very long time I used to study and try to understand economic concerns.  What is currently happening is so distressing that I no longer have the desire to try and figure out what is happening and about to happen.  Contrary to what media outlets are saying, there is a period of hyper-inflation just around the next bend.  We are already seeing it in the constantly rising prices for gasoline and food.

It is estimated that nearly 15% of all Americans have had to raid their retirement accounts to find resources for emergencies.  I know this is true for I am one of those 15% and am not proud of it.  But, when all other sources of income are removed, and expenses pile up; there is no place left to go but to the IRA or 401k that was supposed to provide income for 25 years or more after retirement.

Recent studies have indicated that the housing market for super expensive properties is rebounding and doing fine.  Those with plenty of money are spending it on lavish homes that cost well over a million dollars.  Those homes in foreclosure are also being purchased by people with money and then rented out to desperate people who have lost their homes.

Meanwhile those homes in the $100,000 to $600,000 range just sit there.  No one qualifies for a loan and no one has the money to pay the huge down payment to move up or down.  Most of us live in these kinds of homes and are stuck in them for many years to come.

I cannot do nothing about the weather or the economy so all I can do is pray for wisdom for those deeply impacted by both.  May God grant us all great patience and understanding so as to make the right decisions and have the means to help our neighbor, brother, parent or child in need.

Watch Our for Late Season Tropical Development and Early Season Cold and Snow

It will be very interesting to see what does or does not develop in the Caribbean this week. There are numerous areas of disturbed weather which might affect the United States or could end up being much ado about nothing. All interests from Texas to Florida and from Florida to North Carolina must keep at least one eye squinting at the tropics.

The system off the east coast of northern Florida will produce high tides and potentially heavy rains as it drifts west. If it stays far enough south, it could emerge from the west coast of Florida in few days and once in the Gulf of Mexico could develop into some kind of a hybrid storm or even a tropical storm. Although no one is stating this possibility in any forecasts, there is the potential for a “Fay” type event in the exact same areas Fay attacked earlier in the summer.

The system south of Puerto Rico is currently labeled “invest” and certainly needs to be investigated. The models are all over the map and although the potential to curve northeast exists, there is greater probability the system will head toward Hispaniola and from there who knows where. The other current “invest” is not anything to be concerned about.

With two Mexican storms hitting along its west coast, coupled with the front making its way across the United States, there is always the potential for the tail end of these systems to stall in the Gulf and turn into a tropical system. The western Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico must be watched this week for any development.

Boise, Idaho had its earliest recorded snow the other day. Does this mean anything? Probably not, but it is indicative of some very cold air in the area. Of greater interest is the abundant snow in Wyoming. Most of the state received a very heavy early season snow the past few days.

Most independent experts are calling for the high probability of a much colder and wetter early winter this year. This translates into the potential for November snows over much of the Midwest, Ohio valley and northeast. The wise traveler would at least take this into consideration when thinking of the very late Thanksgiving this year.

I live out west of St. Louis, Missouri and remember distinctly early November of 1991 when we had a high temperature of 21 degrees followed by 6 inches of snow. Both were records for so early in the year, but proof that even this far south, it is possible to see a very early winter. What is interesting to note is that winter ended up being very mild after the brutal early start.

The pattern this year favors more what we saw during the winters of 1989-90 and again in 2000-2001. December 1989 was one of the most brutal periods much of the country ever saw so early in the winter. I remember days where the HIGH temperature was -10 degrees in St. Louis. This had never happened and hasn’t happened since. January of 1990 was as mild as December was cold. February of 1990 was almost as brutally cold as December had been.

These “bookend” winters are some of the most extreme. Not only is there the swinging back and forth to deal with, there is the problems associated with bad weather in December and all the traveling and shopping that take place then. On the other side of the coin is the fun and games associated with a mild January. I recall vividly the Pope riding through St. Louis with everyone in short sleeved shirts as the temperature hit 70 in the middle of January 1999.

Regardless of how this winter plays out, there is bound to be hardship due to the economic situation. A bad November/December could be disastrous for many who are already strapped for money. I recall vividly the almost $500 natural gas bill we had after the wicked December cold in 1989. That was a lot of money to pay for gas back almost twenty years ago.

If people are faced with super high utility bills on top of everything else going on, this early winter could be the straw that breaks many homeowner’s backs. I pray that either the long range forecasts turn out to not be as harsh as possible or that something breaks in the financial realm to soften the blow of what could be a very difficult couple of months coming up.

Gustov and Ike victims have been totally forgotten and neglected

Some have told me to “let it go”. Others have told me “it’s a lost cause”. Still others have accused me of being “crazy” and through it all, NO ONE has told me “keep it up”. What is this all about?

One month ago today a major hurricane hit the Louisiana coast near Grand Isle. Hurricane Gustov continued inland and hurricane force winds battered places as far away as Baton Rouge relentlessly. Meanwhile, down the road in New Orleans all the reporters from all the major news outlets were focused on watching a few waves overtop a few levees. With every ounce of their being they were hoping to see the levees break and their cameras provide live footage of the greatest flood of all time.

All the willing of all the media could not force the levees to break. After a day of anticipation, they were bitterly disappointed that there was no huge story coming out of New Orleans. With heavy heart they trudged to either St. Paul to cover the Republican convention they never wanted to attend, or to South Carolina on the off chance Tropical Storm Hanna might turn into a real newsworthy storm.

While Hanna was huffing and puffing and not really doing much of anything, Hurricane Ike was ripping the Bahamas and then Cuba apart like an angry monster let loose on the city. Of course no reporters are allowed in Cuba and no one in their right mind would have stayed in the Bahamas. Thus, the real story of Ike was neglected, just as the real story of Gustov.

For days, the headlines regarding Ike were directed towards Florida. Where and how this became the focus of attention is baffling. Ike was never headed that way. Still, whenever the folks on Key West are told to evacuate, that becomes the almighty big story of any storm. Why do people live there anyway?

Consider these facts. In the twelve days between Hurricane Gustov and Hurricane Ike, there was basically NO media coverage of Gustov’s damage except in the immediate New Orleans/Baton Rouge areas. Even the television outlets in coastal Mississippi did not cover the story. There were far bigger fish to fry than spending resources on covering a little ole storm that hit a section of Louisiana no one in the United States knows or cares about.

FEMA, the Red Cross, Salvation Army and a few other charities were on the scene providing a little help; but the response after Gustov was minimal and a disgrace to the heart of disaster relief in this country. If we are going to selectively pick and choose who receives aid, media coverage and prayers; our country has slid down the slope to extinction.

As Ike grew into the sprawling monster he became, of course every news outlet rushed crews to Galveston and Houston in anticipation of a huge story. Dreams of Katrina like footage flooded the minds of reporters looking for the story that would catapult them to the “big time”. As dire warnings were issued for those refusing to evacuate circulated, the army of reporters spread out to find safe areas to weather the storm at, yet be close enough to provide graphic shots of the impending carnage.

Images of reporters being swept off their feet in the rising storm surge made the rounds on the internet along with pictures of fools hanging sideways on light poles as the rising winds came ashore. Stupid interviews with people bragging about not evacuating but staying in their beachfront houses drinking beer and partying were still filling television screens the afternoon before the storm hit.

When the media went to bed that Friday night Ike came ashore, they were like children on Christmas Eve. Surely the next morning would provide days of coverage of a totally wiped out Galveston and a severely crippled Houston. Awards and high ratings danced through their heads as they endured a night of wind and storms.

But, alas, once again the weather gods did not cooperate. With bitter disappointment these loyal foot soldiers of the media giants went out to battle on Saturday only to find huge sections of Galveston still standing and worse yet, Houston was barely touched. With clenched fists they cursed the weather gods for not sending the 20 foot storm surge that would have leveled Galveston and crippled the oil and gas industries in Houston for years. Instead, all they got was a little category 2 hurricane with a storm surge that only destroyed places too far to film and that no one cared about.

As a result of Ike not killing 100,000 people, totally destroying the city of Galveston or flooding half of Houston; the media stayed long enough to give a few reports for a few days and then started the mass exodus to find the next big story that America craved to see. Within a week to ten days after Ike, most of the national media were long gone and by two weeks after the storm, there were no longer ANY stories about Ike, Galveston, Houston, the Texas coast or Louisiana.

What have we come to in this country? Do we simply cast off those who suffer the loss of their homes, jobs and families simply because the carnage was not great enough to warrant continued coverage? The media stayed in New Orleans and to a lesser degree the Mississippi coast for months after Katrina. Through their constant coverage of the devastation came the impetus for America to give of their goods, money and time to help those in need.

Since the media has chosen to forsake those affected by Gustov and Ike, there is but a trickle of help heading their way. The response by America to these hurricanes has been tepid at best and non-existent most of the time. America has quickly forgotten about Ike because of the soap opera playing out in Washington over the “bail out”. While debate continues on giving 700 billion to bail out banks, an obscure bill was passed giving a few billion dollars to help those affected by Gustov and Ike.

I know times are tough and everyone is uptight about money, but that does not give an excuse to forget about those who have lost everything and are only starting on the long journey to normalcy. Even the incredible story out of Atlanta regarding gasoline shortages has only in the past two days made the headlines (near the bottom). Either America does not care anymore about helping her fellow citizens in time of need or they do not know what the need is due to the arrogance and ratings driven media who have shirked their duty by failing to cover Gustov and stick with the Ike stories. Shame on you.

The Name Game; Laura is wasted so what do Marco, Nana and Omar Hold in store?

The only way to have continuity is to have a standard which is not changed by the whims of agenda driven people. I honestly do not know which is worse, the failure to name the storm which came into the Carolina’s late last week or the naming of the ridiculous area of disturbed weather in the middle of nowhere today. Both decisions on the part of the NHC make a person question what standards they are using as criteria for naming storms.

At any rate, the name “Laura” has now been wasted on a subtropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean which might impact Iceland. Kyle must have forgotten his passport, for he never came close to the United States. The past week has not been a very good one for those who follow, forecast, track and name tropical systems. In all three cases, mistakes were made and the end result is that none of the three storms caused any great amount of hardship for anyone.

Our eyes must now turn to what lies ahead. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico must keep an eye on an area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan. Whether it develops into a named system or not, it promises to bring much rain to Florida this week. Not a good omen for the baseball crazed fans in Tampa.

The system marching across the Atlantic is one which stands a good chance of developing. There are other areas of disturbed weather exiting Africa which could end up turning into one of those long track hurricanes which can take a week or more to get close to our part of the world. At this time of the year, the Caribbean must be closely monitored for developing systems.

Most of the experts are thinking that there should be at least three more named storms. Whether Marco, Nana and Omar end up turning into Ike type storms or harmless ones like Laura cannot be determined at this time. Whether any upcoming storms will afflict the Gulf Coast, Florida or the East Coast is not available to know at this time. All we can do is look at the overall pattern and deduce that it is conducive to the development of tropical storms.

This year has been very active in one sense (twelve named storms), but very strange in others. Although hurricanes Dolly, Gustov and Ike did inflict major damage to Texas and Louisiana; tropical storm Fay may have actually effected more people though its relentless rain in Florida. Although the Carolina’s have been hit with two tropical storms this year, the recent no-name storm perhaps was more intense in some ways than either named storm.

What is important to understand is that October is still hurricane season. Some of the more impressive October hurricanes which stayed south of the United States were Mitch in 1998 which raked Honduras with torrential rains for days, Iris in 2001 which was a major category 4 hurricane that hit Belize and Keith in 2000 which struck Mexico twice.

The top three October hurricanes to hit the United States were Hazel in 1954 which was a huge category 4 hurricane which struck the South/North Carolina border October 15 of that year, Opal in 1993 which struck Pensacola, Florida as a major category 3 hurricane on October 4, and of course Wilma in 2005 which crashed into southwest Florida on October 24^th of that infamous year.

Even though September is historically the most active month for hurricanes, October is roughly equivalent to August as far as potential for development. Due to seasonal cooling, the deeper into October we get, the more the threat shifts further south. All interests along the Gulf Coast, Florida and as far north as North Carolina must stay vigilant the next few weeks. Only after the middle of the month can this season start to be put in the archives.

Kyle maybe visiting Marha at her vineyard and then take in Maine

Regardless of what the “official” track of Kyle looks like, the odds right now favor a direct hit on Cape Cod and then eastern Maine of a strong category 1 or perhaps even a weak category 2 hurricane. Although there is certainly a chance this storm might stay east of the United States mainland, due to the weakening of the unnamed storm which lashed the Carolina’s yesterday, Kyle should get pulled west.

The danger is that if Kyle comes any further west, suddenly Providence and Boston become targets instead of Cape Cod and Maine. Anyone with interests along the coast of New England better be getting ready for probable power outages, very heavy rain and hurricane force winds. Those who live in this part of the country are used to storms, but anyone new to the area should take heed.

Though certainly not as strong, Kyle appears to be following almost the exact path taken by Hurricane Edna in 1954. Edna was a strong category 3 storm which produced winds of 120 mph on Martha’s Vineyard. It came ashore directly on Cape Cod and then moved up to Maine. Since there are very few people still around who lived through Edna, it makes it difficult to get a good handle on possible effects of Kyle.

Barring any unforeseen developments, Kyle should produce strong enough winds to knock out power on the Cape and probably eastern Maine. Kyle should not be strong enough to produce any storm surge to speak of. There is a high risk of very heavy rain on the west side of Kyle as he tracks north. This would come into play in New Jersey, New York and New England.

Once Kyle passes, there is a bit of a calm before what should be the final “pop” of tropical development over the next couple of weeks. No one on either the Gulf or Atlantic Coastline should think the season is over. It has a been a busy season already and the final quarter may end up being more active than any before it.

Hurricane Kyle (?), Ike Relief and Recovery, Lack of Media Attetion and General Needs

Why the storm buffeting North Carolina with hurricane force winds is not named is a mystery known only to the government agency which is responsible for such things. If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it probably is a duck. It is quite fascinating to have warnings issued for hurricane force winds (for a coastal area) and there not even be a tropical storm.

The next storm, once it finally gets moving will head due north and probably pay Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine a visit. These areas are prone to minor hurricanes, and that is what this storm (Kyle whenever named) will probably be.

The next three weeks should provide some interesting developmental opportunities for new storms. Where these storms form and hit along with their timing is at the moment pure speculation. The point is that meteorologically, the conditions are very similar to when we saw Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike form in rapid fire succession.

The fear among many who look at and study weather is that no matter what might happen, it will be a minor story due to the big “save the economy” news out of Washington. The horrible situation in Texas and Louisiana has already fallen victim to bigger and greater news. Any legitimate threat of an approaching storm would surely suffer the same fate.

The worst time to be struck by a hurricane is the final month of a Presidential campaign that is being hotly contested. Add in the historic events happening with the economy this year and what has happened with post-Ike media coverage will be the norm for future storms.

I was speaking with an associate who continues to help those devastated by Hurricane Katrina the other day. I told this person that if “Katrina #2” did indeed strike the central Gulf Coast this fall, not to expect even 20% of the new coverage, let alone the offers to help that came after Katrina. The will and ability of Americans is just not there to help like they did three years ago.

Isn’t it amazing how those who need help the most receive the least? There are precious few news stories coming out of Ike affected areas, and those that are done are always about Galveston. All the other areas of the coast from Beaumont, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana receive ZERO attention. It is these areas where just like after Katrina and Rita three years ago, hundreds and thousands of people will “fall through the cracks” and be left to fend for themselves.

I feel badly for anyone who lost their home or had it badly damaged by Gustov or Ike. But my heart aches for those who lost their home or had it badly damaged and to this date, no one knows about it. Those who somehow fall through the cracks and receive no aid from FEMA, Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other government or private organization are the people I care most about.

Mainly senior citizens or those with disabilities, the people who fall through the cracks after a hurricane are usually the same ones who fall through the cracks every day of the week. These situations present very difficult cases for those who try and help people on a daily basis. Yet, if someone does not at least try to locate and extend to these people the offer of help; they will suffer the most after a storm.

Yes, many of these folks reject the very idea of help out of pride. They take pride in their independence and look at charity as a sign of weakness. Yet, there comes a time, especially when their home is falling down on top of them, that they finally accept offers of help. These cases many times provide caregivers with the most rewarding success stories.

Americans must remember that in rural areas, especially in southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, there are many times no organized services made available for seniors, those with disabilities and those too poor to afford public services. Many locations have nothing like a “senior center” to provide daily meals or a service to deliver meals to homebound seniors. Many areas have no form of transportation available to get those who are elderly, disabled or poor to doctor’s visits or even to get to the store.

These are interesting times in which we live and are bound to get even more interesting in the coming month to six weeks. God help us all to stay strong, alert and aware of changing situations and needs.

Ike Fatalities, Gustov Devastation, New York Hurricane Threat; Where is the Media Attention?

To say that I am shocked would be a gross understatement. To say that I am surprised would not be true. To say that I am disgusted would perhaps best describe how I feel about the change in media policy toward covering REAL NEWS.

In a matter of three weeks, this country has been rocked by two major hurricanes along with a powerful tropical storm. Before this month is over, there will be storm lash the Carolina’s which will be as strong as most tropical storms. Before this month is over, there will be a hurricane of undetermined intensity strike either New York or New England. Where is the coverage of any of this in the news? It is not there.

The media has determined that they devoted enough time and space to Hurricane Ike coverage and have moved on to the greener pastures of the Washington economic bail out and the continuing fake news on the political front. Once most of Houston got their power back on and once the citizens of Galveston were allowed to at least see what became of their homes; the media figured their job was done and they were gone. The problem is that unless there remains a media presence, the American people quickly forget about a situation due their collective attention deficit disorder.

It seems the American public cannot focus on anything longer than a few hours. I would venture to say that the overwhelming majority of Americans have totally forgotten about Hurricane Gustov and are quickly forgetting about Ike. A few days removed from the front page and most stories are distant history.

The unfortunate reality when it comes to disaster relief is that the real work comes long after everyone things the work was all done. The tasks of repairing, rebuilding and restoring buildings and lives takes an enormous amount of time, work and money. Recovery from a major disaster entails far more than just pumping water out of a flooded basement or fixing a few shingles on the roof.

When I first visited New Orleans 8 months after Katrina hit one of the things that stood out most to me was the lack of retail businesses needed to repair, rebuild and restore. I made many trips to the one Home Depot that was open and waited in lines for upwards of two hours. There were few Wal-Mart’s and Targets open for months and even fewer grocery stores and restaurants. Part of the problem in New Orleans was the lack of people to work at these places.

If the majority of people in an area have had to leave due to major destruction, there of necessity will be a labor shortage for the few places trying to open. Another issue is where the evacuees are staying. If the area is demolished, they are not going to be staying in the area. They will be anywhere from a few miles to a continent away. Yet another problem is lack of reliable contractors and laborers to do the work.

Once debris removal is complete, the first thing that must be done to damaged homes and buildings is the removal of damaged drywall. The “gutting” out of structures is absolutely necessary to keep mold from taking over the dwelling. After Katrina, crews of volunteers from all over the United States descended on New Orleans and Mississippi just to gut all the structures which received water damage. When it comes to gutting, the need is volunteers and not supplies.

The next thing that must be addressed are the roofs. Immediately after a storm, blue tarps are put on damaged roofs to prevent moisture from getting in and ruining drywall and to prevent mold from growing. Logically, there is great need initially for roofing supplies and roofers. I am sure that there is a growing shortage of both supplies and workers in the roofing industry in Louisiana and Texas.

After roofs are fixed then, and only then, can the rebuilding stage start. It is utter folly to start repairs inside the house before the roof is repaired. Once the roof is finished, then a contractor must determine if the floor is ruined. Usually flooring is the next side of things to need supplies and workers. Notice how with each step of restoration the job becomes more expensive and labor intensive? Along with flooring comes electrical wiring and plumbing issues. Of course before all this are infrastructure needs that must be addressed.

Finally, after the roof, infrastructure, floors, electric and plumbing are done; then the time consuming and very expensive task of putting up new drywall starts. Even when that is done there remains the replacement of furniture, carpeting and drapes. The entire process of restoring a severely damaged building is very expensive and time consuming.

In the months and years after Katrina, there were constant shortages of building supplies that matched the progress being made. Initially there were shortages of lumber and roofing materials. Then there were shortages of flooring materials. Finally, the biggest shortage of all was drywall. Even once the literal shortages were relieved, there remained a dire shortage of qualified workers to do the work.

If the media had not kept the attention of America focused on Katrina for many months, there would not have been the continual outpouring of donated goods and volunteer services that continue unto this day. Yes, it has been three years since Katrina and there are still people either waiting for insurance money to get their home repaired or volunteer agencies to help when there was no money available.

The myths in disaster recovery are as follows:

1. Everyone has insurance and thus have the means to get repairs made

2. The area is flooded with reputable contractors and supplies

3. All the work is done and finished in a few weeks or months

4. Volunteers are only needed at the beginning of the relief effort

5. Donations of goods and money are only needed directly after the disaster

The great secret to success in disaster relief and recovery depends in part upon governmental agencies doing their part, private businesses doing their part and service groups and charities doing their part. It takes a team effort to see prompt and proper disaster relief, repair, rebuilding and restoration. The catalyst for this is constant media attention. It is truly a shame the media has chosen to leave the victims in Louisiana and Texas to fend for themselves.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.

Ike and Carla a perfect match?

With the question marks pretty much gone as to where Ike is going, the only things left are timing and strength. My trusted sources are making a very strong case for Ike to be “Carla #2”. In case no one remembers 1961 well enough to recall Carla, here are a few details:

Formed—September 3, 1961

Dissipated—September 16, 1961

Highest Winds—175 mph

Lowest Pressure—931

Fatalities—43

Storm Surge—22 feet, going 10 miles inland

Damage—325 million (1961 dollars)

2.34 billion (2008 dollars)

Carla was one of the top seven most powerful hurricanes to hit the United States, and the most powerful to hit Texas. Just before landfall, it weakened, but Carla was still a very strong and unusually large category 4 hurricane at its landfall between Port O’Conner and Port Lavaca, Texas, on September 11th. At the time, Carla became the largest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. Along the entire Texas coast, hurricane warnings were put into effect, causing a large evacuation of low-lying areas.

In an eerie twist of fate, Ike is heading toward pretty much the same place and could very well reach the same intensity. I cannot stress highly enough the need for anyone near the projected landfall of Ike to take all needed precautions and head inland. I, and many other independent forecasters, believe this storm will end up at least a category 4 upon landfall. This storm MUST be prepared for NOW and I am sure Texas is doing just that.

Anywhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston needs to prepare for the impact of a major hurricane. Places inland need to prepare for a tropical storm and for tornadoes. Current guidance puts Ike over the Dallas area still strong enough to be considered a tropical storm! How many times do the folks in Dallas and Fort Worth encounter sustained winds of tropical storm strength?

Once Ike gets into Texas its moisture will flow northeast and all points between Texas and New England are in for a ton of rain. Just what we here in St. Louis need, more heavy rain, for this is already the wettest year on record. Ike will still be making news not only a week from now, but quite possibly a year from now.

Carla had a storm surge of 22 feet associated with it. It doesn’t take a meteorologist to figure out that could be catastrophic IF Ike goes a little east of its projected path and Galveston found itself on the northeast side of a category 4 storm. Carla did a world of damage to Galveston in 1961, and Ike holds the same potential in 2008.

Since this storm is still getting its act together, there is room for error as far as track and intensity. Thus, all interests along the Texas coast need to act now to deal with a hurricane very few would have ever personally experienced in their lifetime. This could end up being a very bad situation for not only Texas, but for many parts of this country as the moisture streams northeast.

Ike Likes Texas, it Appears–But Others Should NOT Forget Him

Not since a certain President during the 1950’s has there been such a fuss over anyone named “Ike”. But, unlike the popular “Ike” (who both Texas and Kansas claim), there is nothing much to like about the current Ike.

As stated by the NHC in its update this morning, only five days ago Ike appeared to be heading for the Florida Keys and then toward New Orleans. The Keys were ordered evacuated and hundreds of thousands of folks in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana began losing sleep over the prospect of Katrina number two.

We are now at day five and Ike is SOUTH of Cuba and “supposedly” going to south Texas to follow up on what Dolly started. The Keys are wet and windy and full of disgruntled business owners who are complaining about lost income due to the evacuation. Everyone in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana has gotten back to either recovering from Gustov or preparing for the next football game. How times change in a matter of five days.

The question that begs to be answered is; where will Ike be five days from now? That indeed is the million dollar question that is much more difficult than answered who the longest reigning monarch was in England (answered correctly on “Fifth Grader” last week for one million dollars). I know what most of the models are showing and at the current rate, according to them, Ike will probably end up in Mexico. But, I also know what the UKMET and HWRF are showing about a possible curve to the north.

All the models and the official forecast are based on a series of “What If’s” coming to pass. Assumptions are made based on the probability of certain things happening at certain times. If all works out perfectly, then the five day forecast is right. If something doesn’t work perfectly, the forecast is a bust. For five days we were told (near St. Louis) that there would be storms and rain yesterday and today. Certain areas did get severe storms last evening around St. Louis, but many areas got no rain at all. Today is sunny with no chance of rain. What happened?

A front moved faster than anticipated and the trigger for the storms was pulled to the east and south of here. The end result is a “busted” forecast that really bothered no one since this is the wettest year in history around here. The amazing part of this story is that the forecast for storms yesterday and today was still being promoted at noon yesterday.

I do not believe for one minute at this point in time that Hurricane Ike is going to end up hitting the deserted southern coast of Texas north of Brownsville early Saturday morning as a category 3 storm. Between now and then, something will change with the ridges and troughs north and east of the Gulf of Mexico and the timing of them. Something will dramatically alter the things needed for Ike to grow or diminish.

Where Ike ends up going is strictly based on probabilities at the moment. By the time Saturday rolls around, I am quite certain Ike will be somewhere OTHER THAN the uninhabited coastline between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas. Where, I have no clue other than to trust those who have far more knowledge than I and who have no agenda to fulfill. The best sources I have access to put the better chance for landfall near Corpus Christi as a category 4 or even a 5 storm.

Bear with me here. WHAT IF, the ridge that is supposed to guide Ike to the west or even southwest does not do as planned when it is planned to? What if something happens to provide an opening for the storm to move north through a weakness in the ridge (has happened many times)? What if the remnants of Josephine reach the Bahamas as planned later this week and turn into a depression and totally wreck the models plans?

Of course evacuation plans and other provisions cannot be made of a series of “WHAT IF’S”, but by the same token millions of people cannot be lulled into a false sense of security by model changes either. I believe with all my heart that the wise person living anywhere between Brownsville, Texas and New Orleans, Louisiana needs to be on their own personal hurricane watch for the next two days. By this time on Thursday, we will know for sure where Ike is heading, but until then why take any chances by even toying with the worst think that could happen—complacency.