The Name Game; Laura is wasted so what do Marco, Nana and Omar Hold in store?

The only way to have continuity is to have a standard which is not changed by the whims of agenda driven people. I honestly do not know which is worse, the failure to name the storm which came into the Carolina’s late last week or the naming of the ridiculous area of disturbed weather in the middle of nowhere today. Both decisions on the part of the NHC make a person question what standards they are using as criteria for naming storms.

At any rate, the name “Laura” has now been wasted on a subtropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean which might impact Iceland. Kyle must have forgotten his passport, for he never came close to the United States. The past week has not been a very good one for those who follow, forecast, track and name tropical systems. In all three cases, mistakes were made and the end result is that none of the three storms caused any great amount of hardship for anyone.

Our eyes must now turn to what lies ahead. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico must keep an eye on an area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan. Whether it develops into a named system or not, it promises to bring much rain to Florida this week. Not a good omen for the baseball crazed fans in Tampa.

The system marching across the Atlantic is one which stands a good chance of developing. There are other areas of disturbed weather exiting Africa which could end up turning into one of those long track hurricanes which can take a week or more to get close to our part of the world. At this time of the year, the Caribbean must be closely monitored for developing systems.

Most of the experts are thinking that there should be at least three more named storms. Whether Marco, Nana and Omar end up turning into Ike type storms or harmless ones like Laura cannot be determined at this time. Whether any upcoming storms will afflict the Gulf Coast, Florida or the East Coast is not available to know at this time. All we can do is look at the overall pattern and deduce that it is conducive to the development of tropical storms.

This year has been very active in one sense (twelve named storms), but very strange in others. Although hurricanes Dolly, Gustov and Ike did inflict major damage to Texas and Louisiana; tropical storm Fay may have actually effected more people though its relentless rain in Florida. Although the Carolina’s have been hit with two tropical storms this year, the recent no-name storm perhaps was more intense in some ways than either named storm.

What is important to understand is that October is still hurricane season. Some of the more impressive October hurricanes which stayed south of the United States were Mitch in 1998 which raked Honduras with torrential rains for days, Iris in 2001 which was a major category 4 hurricane that hit Belize and Keith in 2000 which struck Mexico twice.

The top three October hurricanes to hit the United States were Hazel in 1954 which was a huge category 4 hurricane which struck the South/North Carolina border October 15 of that year, Opal in 1993 which struck Pensacola, Florida as a major category 3 hurricane on October 4, and of course Wilma in 2005 which crashed into southwest Florida on October 24^th of that infamous year.

Even though September is historically the most active month for hurricanes, October is roughly equivalent to August as far as potential for development. Due to seasonal cooling, the deeper into October we get, the more the threat shifts further south. All interests along the Gulf Coast, Florida and as far north as North Carolina must stay vigilant the next few weeks. Only after the middle of the month can this season start to be put in the archives.

Kyle and Economic Crash averted this time, but the threats are still with us

I will say this for not only the economic sector of the United States, but also the hurricane; I am beginning to believe this country is like the cat with nine lives. Once again, what could have been with Kyle will not be as bad as thought due to it staying east. Maine will certainly have a wet and windy day, but Cape Cod and nearby areas were spared—this time.

With each “near miss”, whether New England, North Carolina, Florida or New Orleans; there builds a mistaken assumption that the “really bad one” will ever hit. This is exactly what led to the whole Katrina debacle and perhaps the Ike disaster in Galveston. When it comes to nature, one must respect that as humans, we do not control it.

If a few meteorological details would have been slightly different, the two storms (Kyle and the unnamed storm) which flirted with the country the past few days could have resulted in a much worse scenario. The headlines would be quite different today if a category 1 hurricane had ripped into Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday and a category 2 hurricane tore across Long Island last night. Just as most people do not have any idea how close we came to total economic meltdown this week, so they don’t know how close we came to two hurricanes hitting the coast within two days of each other.

Congressional action prevented the economic hurricane from crushing the United States economy. Atmospheric changes in winds and pressure prevented the two hurricanes from buffeting the coastline. The economic mess is still there and after the initial hoopla over the accord reached by Congress and the White House, the underlying problems will result in another crisis down the road. Weather conditions still favor the development of tropical systems over the next few weeks.

The moral to the story is simply that we must not become complacent either in regards to the financial mess or the potential for future storms. Perhaps there is cause for rejoicing that the world’s financial markets will not crash tomorrow, but there is no reason to sit back and think “all is well” either. There is good reason to rejoice in that Kyle snubbed Martha and her vineyard and decided to check out the sights in Nova Scotia. But, Laura is bound to pop up somewhere soon and where she goes, at the moment nobody knows.

Perhaps, if we are still around to talk about it, down the road we can look back on the last weekend of September of 2008 as NOT the weekend of devastating economic storms and double hurricanes; but rather as the weekend we were temporarily spared, as a country, from the pain and suffering of three storms hitting at the same time. However great the rejoicing is today, I pray it does not lend itself to apathy in the future.

Kyle maybe visiting Marha at her vineyard and then take in Maine

Regardless of what the “official” track of Kyle looks like, the odds right now favor a direct hit on Cape Cod and then eastern Maine of a strong category 1 or perhaps even a weak category 2 hurricane. Although there is certainly a chance this storm might stay east of the United States mainland, due to the weakening of the unnamed storm which lashed the Carolina’s yesterday, Kyle should get pulled west.

The danger is that if Kyle comes any further west, suddenly Providence and Boston become targets instead of Cape Cod and Maine. Anyone with interests along the coast of New England better be getting ready for probable power outages, very heavy rain and hurricane force winds. Those who live in this part of the country are used to storms, but anyone new to the area should take heed.

Though certainly not as strong, Kyle appears to be following almost the exact path taken by Hurricane Edna in 1954. Edna was a strong category 3 storm which produced winds of 120 mph on Martha’s Vineyard. It came ashore directly on Cape Cod and then moved up to Maine. Since there are very few people still around who lived through Edna, it makes it difficult to get a good handle on possible effects of Kyle.

Barring any unforeseen developments, Kyle should produce strong enough winds to knock out power on the Cape and probably eastern Maine. Kyle should not be strong enough to produce any storm surge to speak of. There is a high risk of very heavy rain on the west side of Kyle as he tracks north. This would come into play in New Jersey, New York and New England.

Once Kyle passes, there is a bit of a calm before what should be the final “pop” of tropical development over the next couple of weeks. No one on either the Gulf or Atlantic Coastline should think the season is over. It has a been a busy season already and the final quarter may end up being more active than any before it.

What should have been Kyle hits Carolinas while the real Kyle heads for Rhode Island

In reading the pros and cons of why the storm lashing the Carolina’s at this time was never named, there is one thing for certain. The days of putting total trust in those at the National Hurricane Center are over. Whatever their agenda is, they are not running their organization in such a way to provide unbiased and helpful information to the American public.

There is a deep and simmering battle taking place between the government wanting to take over the meteorological community, the same way they are taking over Wall Street, vs. the independent agencies and forecasters who make a living providing their data to clients. Since the government only wants to promote the global warming agenda, they are making a concentrated effort to discredit private forecasters who refuse to promote the “official” line out of business.

I have to admit that there appears to be no rational reason for not naming the system which came ashore near Myrtle Beach last night. Its pressure readings were lower than the newly named Kyle out in the Atlantic. It had true tropical storm force winds and was probably stronger than Hanna was. It is a mystery known only to those in Miami as to why this storm was not named Kyle.

Once this unnamed system moves far enough inland to cease influencing Kyle (which should be Laura), there should be rapid development. Kyle is forecasted to miss the United States and hit Nova Scotia. Many private forecasters do not believe this. They still put Kyle on a track which would bring it ashore near Providence, Rhode Island. Once again, as has happened over and over again, where are the advance notices to those who may be in harm’s way as early as Saturday night?

If the “official” track of the storm carries it far out to sea and 500 miles away from the coast, why should anyone be concerned? Just as in the current situation, if there is no named storm, no one pays any attention to the bulletins which warned people in both South and North Carolina to expect hurricane force winds. Since there was no named storm, most people either ignored such warnings or never heard about them.

As a spectator on the sidelines, I do not know what is driving this intense competition between the private sector meteorologists and the government funded National Hurricane Center. All I know is that it is turning into an ugly battle and is turning personal quickly. Since the NHC has the “final word” they win in the end, but what good does it do them if they are proven to be either fools or frauds?

No one is telling us the truth in Washington, so why should be expect anyone in Miami to tell us the truth about hurricanes? Everything is all about politics, agenda and promoting causes which hold no validity when it comes to anything associated with the government. The wise person looking for honest answers better get used to looking in places outside of official government statements.

I am a highly cynical person and I generally do not believe much of anything I hear anyone officially speaking on behalf of the government has to say. I must admit that I allowed myself to become too closely attached to the “official” bulletins issued about Hurricane Ike. As it turned out, I think there was much that was not right concerning that storm, both before it hit and after. But that is a topic for another day.

Hurricane Kyle (?), Ike Relief and Recovery, Lack of Media Attetion and General Needs

Why the storm buffeting North Carolina with hurricane force winds is not named is a mystery known only to the government agency which is responsible for such things. If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it probably is a duck. It is quite fascinating to have warnings issued for hurricane force winds (for a coastal area) and there not even be a tropical storm.

The next storm, once it finally gets moving will head due north and probably pay Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine a visit. These areas are prone to minor hurricanes, and that is what this storm (Kyle whenever named) will probably be.

The next three weeks should provide some interesting developmental opportunities for new storms. Where these storms form and hit along with their timing is at the moment pure speculation. The point is that meteorologically, the conditions are very similar to when we saw Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike form in rapid fire succession.

The fear among many who look at and study weather is that no matter what might happen, it will be a minor story due to the big “save the economy” news out of Washington. The horrible situation in Texas and Louisiana has already fallen victim to bigger and greater news. Any legitimate threat of an approaching storm would surely suffer the same fate.

The worst time to be struck by a hurricane is the final month of a Presidential campaign that is being hotly contested. Add in the historic events happening with the economy this year and what has happened with post-Ike media coverage will be the norm for future storms.

I was speaking with an associate who continues to help those devastated by Hurricane Katrina the other day. I told this person that if “Katrina #2” did indeed strike the central Gulf Coast this fall, not to expect even 20% of the new coverage, let alone the offers to help that came after Katrina. The will and ability of Americans is just not there to help like they did three years ago.

Isn’t it amazing how those who need help the most receive the least? There are precious few news stories coming out of Ike affected areas, and those that are done are always about Galveston. All the other areas of the coast from Beaumont, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana receive ZERO attention. It is these areas where just like after Katrina and Rita three years ago, hundreds and thousands of people will “fall through the cracks” and be left to fend for themselves.

I feel badly for anyone who lost their home or had it badly damaged by Gustov or Ike. But my heart aches for those who lost their home or had it badly damaged and to this date, no one knows about it. Those who somehow fall through the cracks and receive no aid from FEMA, Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other government or private organization are the people I care most about.

Mainly senior citizens or those with disabilities, the people who fall through the cracks after a hurricane are usually the same ones who fall through the cracks every day of the week. These situations present very difficult cases for those who try and help people on a daily basis. Yet, if someone does not at least try to locate and extend to these people the offer of help; they will suffer the most after a storm.

Yes, many of these folks reject the very idea of help out of pride. They take pride in their independence and look at charity as a sign of weakness. Yet, there comes a time, especially when their home is falling down on top of them, that they finally accept offers of help. These cases many times provide caregivers with the most rewarding success stories.

Americans must remember that in rural areas, especially in southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, there are many times no organized services made available for seniors, those with disabilities and those too poor to afford public services. Many locations have nothing like a “senior center” to provide daily meals or a service to deliver meals to homebound seniors. Many areas have no form of transportation available to get those who are elderly, disabled or poor to doctor’s visits or even to get to the store.

These are interesting times in which we live and are bound to get even more interesting in the coming month to six weeks. God help us all to stay strong, alert and aware of changing situations and needs.

Definite Hurricane Threat for East Coast next Ten Days

The hurricane forecasters are going through all sorts of contortions due to the confluence of meteorological factors along the East Coast this week. On one hand, everyone agrees there should be a very strong non-tropical low pressure area form just off the Carolina coast by as early as Wednesday evening. This low would cause near tropical storm strength winds to buffet North Carolina’s coast.

At the same time, what should become Kyle continues to hammer Puerto Rico with relentless rain. Reports of 15 inch rain totals so far are bound to make for flooding on the island. The storm is slowing heading toward the Dominican Republic where flooding rains are expected later today. This system is expected to turn to the north and then the models start going crazy due to possible scenarios.

A couple of the more troubling scenarios are that this storm could quickly become at least a category 2 hurricane and head for either Delaware Bay or Providence, Rhode Island. Much has been written and speculated upon with both of these ideas; and none of it is good. A strong hurricane hitting to the west of the Delaware Bay would be devastating to not only Philadelphia but to the entire Delaware River valley.

Those who study worst case scenarios come up with certain criteria which if met, would enable a given storm to produce the worst possible damage. Philadelphia, much like Houston, would most be impacted by a storm surge pushing up Delaware Bay from a big storm pushing its surge up the bay. Remember this was the scenario most feared with Ike and Houston. Thankfully for Houston’s sake, Ike did not perfectly match all the criteria needed for the perfect storm.

A big wet hurricane with a decent storm surge hitting at the mouth of Delaware Bay and moving north would bring huge flooding problems to Philadelphia. The argument by those who doubt this would ever happen revolve around history not showing many hurricanes able to follow the perfect path needed to produce a storm surge in Delaware Bay. This is a fair argument, but no one can say that the possibility does not exist.

It would be far more difficult for a hurricane to manage to hit New York at the correct angle to produce any kind of storm surge up the Hudson river. New York problems deal more with Long Island and it lack of protection. Anyone living on Long Island should feel at least a tinge of apprehension seeing the images from Galveston. There is a lot of similarity between the two places. Thankfully, there are far few hurricanes that maintain category 3 strength that hit New York than Texas.

The other distinct possibility is a direct hit on Providence. A major hurricane striking near Charlestown or Kingston, Rhode Island would send a storm surge straight up Narragansett Bay into Providence. Just as in the case of Long Island, although the geography is ideal for a devastating hurricane; the meteorology is not. Hurricanes are usually moving northeast as they skirt the coastline of Rhode Island. But, there are some hurricanes which refuse to read the book on hurricane behavior.

In September of 1938 a major unnamed category 3 hurricane slammed into Long Island and continued into Connecticut. In September of 1944 a huge category 3 hurricane blasted Long Island and Rhode Island. In September of 1954, Hurricane Carol (another category 3 storm) hit Long Island and Connecticut. A few weeks later, Hurricane Edna looked like it would hit the same areas but veered to the east and blasted Cape Cod, Massachusetts. In 1955 Hurricane Connie skirted the North Carolina coast and went up Chesapeake Bay.

In early September of 1960, the fifth strongest hurricane to hit the United States, Hurricane Donna struck Florida, North Carolina and Rhode Island. In June of 1972 Hurricane Agnes came ashore in the Florida Panhandle and re-emerged off the coast of North Carolina and hit New York City as a category 1 hurricane. In September of 1999 Hurricane Floyd tore through North Carolina and continued on to New England as a strong Tropical Storm. Numerous other remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have caused very high tides and flooding rains to all these areas.

Looking back on history it is very clear that portions of the Eastern Seaboard are far past due for a major hurricane strike. A hurricane with the strength of the 1938, 1944 or 1954 ones would cause damage beyond the scope of imagination to Long Island due to the massive building which has gone there over the past 50-70 years. Considering there has not been a major hurricane to hit anywhere in the Northeast since Donna in 1960; there obviously is not the experiential base to draw upon.

Those living anywhere along the East Coast of the United States need to start thinking NOW about what to do if a hurricane does indeed form and heads north from the Bahamas. This is not the time to automatically discount this idea as pure foolishness or hysteria arousing hype. There is a very real hurricane threat for the Mid Atlantic coast all the way to New England over the next week or so.

I am sure as the weather develops, we will have a need to repeat what we did during the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike merry-go-round of storms. The next 3 weeks are sure to hold the distinct possibility of storms, hurricanes and rumors of hurricanes for many sections of the United States coastline form Texas to Maine. Such fun and games to look forward to.

Gustov, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle-The Hurricane Parade has Only Just Begun

With each passing day, the tropical situation becomes more intense. Just as one major hurricane starts the process of unwinding, others form and still others lie in wait. This year it seems all the ingredients needed for a very active hurricane season have fallen into place for the first time in three years.

Word from my sources down on the Mississippi coast is that although not as bad as Katrina, by a long shot, Gustov’s storm surge surpassed expectations and has brought unexpected flooding to the same places devastated by Katrina. It has been reported that as many as 100 homes have been flooded in Pearlington, which was ground zero for Katrina. Reports of the storm surge taking out numerous “Katrina cottages” have filtered in from Long Beach and other sections of Hancock County.

I am sure there will end up being major damage to various locations in Louisiana. There is simply no way a storm of the magnitude of Gustov could hit without causing major storm surge flooding and quite a bit of wind damage. As crews are able to get out with the light of day and survey the scene, I am sure pockets of extreme destruction will be found, especially in areas near the coast.

There have been numerous possible explanations given as to why Gustov did not re-strengthen after passing over Cuba. I am sure the real reason is among them, or a combination of many factors. Forecasting hurricanes is so much better than it used to be, but there are still countless unanswered questions as to the mechanics of storms when exposed to different elements such as wind shear, dry air, cold water and other tropical storms in the vicinity.

As bad as Gustov ends up being, it could have been 100 times worse if the storm had regained category 4 status and/or wobbled just 50 miles to the east. Whether the New Orleans levees will hold up through the remainder of this season plus two more until their planned completion is anyone’s guess. They held this time, but barely. A slightly stronger storm 50 miles to the east would have totally changed the storm surge dynamics and the wind field.

Hanna is a study in perseverance. The vast majority of storms confronted by the adverse conditions attacking it would have dissolved long ago. Instead, for reasons not entirely clear to the scientists, the storm is not only “hanging in there” but continues to strengthen. Tossing aside what it does or does not do the next day or so; the prevailing conscientious is that Hanna will emerge from the Bahamas on Wednesday and explode somewhat like Gustov just did.

The vast majority of models take Hanna north to somewhere between Georgia and North Carolina with Charleston and Myrtle Beach in the crosshairs. Just how strong Hanna becomes is subject to quite a bit of discussion right now, but there is a very real chance it could become at least as strong as Gustov if not far stronger. By Friday or Saturday somebody is going to be dealing with a major hurricane in either South or North Carolina.

Ike continues to intensify rather quickly and is heading due west into the southern Bahamas and just north of Puerto Rico. The long term guidance for Ike is not clear at the moment. Much will depend on what Hanna does and when she does it. Ike could literally follow in Hanna’s wake or could keep heading west into the Gulf of Mexico. Either way, Ike is showing signs of being a major hurricane.

Hurricane Josephine will form today out of depression number ten. Behind Josephine, a new area of disturbed weather just formed which will likely be Kyle. It is incredible to see so many major storms alive at once in the Atlantic basin. It is also cause for extreme caution and vigilance on the part of everyone living near the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. The relentless parade of hurricanes will test everyone’s patience and place incredible stress on all levels of emergency management.

Of increasing concern is the ability of FEMA to be two or even three places at once. Much has been made of FEMA’s presence in Louisiana and now it is almost certain they will be needed in either South or North Carolina by the weekend. Depending on where Ike decides to visit, that would be three huge areas impacted at the same time. Let us hope things go better than three years ago when those affected by hurricanes Rita and Wilma saw very little help due to Katrina.

I will keep scouring the sources in my attempt to put together these updates as long as the need is there. Having a long standing interest in meteorology as well as hands on experience with Katrina relief and recovery; I feel qualified enough to speak with at least some degree of confidence on both the meteorological as well as “on the ground” aspects of these storms. Thank you reading.