Ike Explodes While Hanna sits and Watches

Sometimes what happens with weather defies everyone’s understanding. What took place yesterday with hurricane Ike was forecast by NO ONE including any computer model. Absolutely no one expected Ike to explode in a matter of hours from a tropical storm to a MAJOR HURRICANE. Thank God this took place in the open Atlantic Ocean and not over the Bahamas or near the United States coast.

What happened with Ike proves that as wonderful as the advances in hurricane tracking and forecasting are, and they are amazing, there is still much that is not understood and therefore situations arise which are neither anticipated nor able to be explained. This does not indicate ignorance so much as lack of understanding one of the most phenomenal occurrences in all of nature; the major hurricane.

A satellite view of a strong hurricane is awesome. The clouds wrapping around the eye represent one of nature’s most majestic and frightening sights. To the untrained observer, all hurricanes look alike when viewing satellite photos, but in reality each on is unique and each one has a story to tell concerning its origin, development and impact.

Even while Ike was exploding, Hanna was growing in size. Hanna is a huge storm encompassing a gigantic area. What it is lacking in winds, it is making up for in sheer size. IF Hanna is able to get better organized, it does still pose a danger to North Carolina and Virginia. The key question is whether it will explode as Ike just did or not. Regardless of what it does, we know that it will be done quickly since it is scheduled to make landfall by Saturday morning.

Ike’s track and intensity are very much determined by what Hanna ends up doing. Whether Ike follows Hanna up the East Coast or plows into Florida depends on large part on how fast Hanna moves and how strong she becomes. There is, without question, the very real possibility that we could see two East Coast Hurricanes hit within a week to ten days of each other. Although not unprecedented, this would be the first time such an event happened since the 1950’s.

Even as Hanna and Ike make their moves toward this country, the battle to deal with Gustov is only now getting into high gear. I received very troubling news today regarding the status of Gustov evacuees. May I refer the reader to a post I put up last evening on this subject. Please look at the second post from September 3^rd on Gustov evacuees for more details.

Perhaps overlooked in all the hurricane furor is the fact that first Gustov and now Hanna have absolutely pummeled the country of Haiti over the past week to ten days. The humanitarian crisis in that country is growing worse by the day. The situation was horrible before Gustov hit, now it is grave. With Ike approaching quickly as a major hurricane; there is much fear that Haiti could degenerate into a state of utter devastation and lawlessness. I beg your prayers for the poor people in that country.

Once we get past the next week, the tropical situation should calm down for awhile. There is strong evidence to suggest that October may be an active month in the tropics, but at least by then the dynamics change as far as where major hurricanes develop and strike. But, before we enjoy the respite from daily updates as to where particular storms are heading, we must endure the process of Hanna and Ike playing out. Josephine is no longer a player in this parade and there has not yet been any new storms form. So, once Ike is done we should be in the clear for awhile.

May I stress that while Hanna’s future is still in doubt, Ike’s is not. Even though it is nigh unto impossible for Ike to stay a category 4 or 5 hurricane much more than a couple of days, by the time it approaches Florida it should still be a major storm. The best guidance right now (subject to change) indicates that Ike should be a classic East Coast hurricane in the true sense of the word. Only time will tell if this is so, but between the possibility of Hanna yet intensifying and Ike following behind, those along the eastern seaboard need to stay extremely vigilant and not let their guard down just yet.

Gustov, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle-The Hurricane Parade has Only Just Begun

With each passing day, the tropical situation becomes more intense. Just as one major hurricane starts the process of unwinding, others form and still others lie in wait. This year it seems all the ingredients needed for a very active hurricane season have fallen into place for the first time in three years.

Word from my sources down on the Mississippi coast is that although not as bad as Katrina, by a long shot, Gustov’s storm surge surpassed expectations and has brought unexpected flooding to the same places devastated by Katrina. It has been reported that as many as 100 homes have been flooded in Pearlington, which was ground zero for Katrina. Reports of the storm surge taking out numerous “Katrina cottages” have filtered in from Long Beach and other sections of Hancock County.

I am sure there will end up being major damage to various locations in Louisiana. There is simply no way a storm of the magnitude of Gustov could hit without causing major storm surge flooding and quite a bit of wind damage. As crews are able to get out with the light of day and survey the scene, I am sure pockets of extreme destruction will be found, especially in areas near the coast.

There have been numerous possible explanations given as to why Gustov did not re-strengthen after passing over Cuba. I am sure the real reason is among them, or a combination of many factors. Forecasting hurricanes is so much better than it used to be, but there are still countless unanswered questions as to the mechanics of storms when exposed to different elements such as wind shear, dry air, cold water and other tropical storms in the vicinity.

As bad as Gustov ends up being, it could have been 100 times worse if the storm had regained category 4 status and/or wobbled just 50 miles to the east. Whether the New Orleans levees will hold up through the remainder of this season plus two more until their planned completion is anyone’s guess. They held this time, but barely. A slightly stronger storm 50 miles to the east would have totally changed the storm surge dynamics and the wind field.

Hanna is a study in perseverance. The vast majority of storms confronted by the adverse conditions attacking it would have dissolved long ago. Instead, for reasons not entirely clear to the scientists, the storm is not only “hanging in there” but continues to strengthen. Tossing aside what it does or does not do the next day or so; the prevailing conscientious is that Hanna will emerge from the Bahamas on Wednesday and explode somewhat like Gustov just did.

The vast majority of models take Hanna north to somewhere between Georgia and North Carolina with Charleston and Myrtle Beach in the crosshairs. Just how strong Hanna becomes is subject to quite a bit of discussion right now, but there is a very real chance it could become at least as strong as Gustov if not far stronger. By Friday or Saturday somebody is going to be dealing with a major hurricane in either South or North Carolina.

Ike continues to intensify rather quickly and is heading due west into the southern Bahamas and just north of Puerto Rico. The long term guidance for Ike is not clear at the moment. Much will depend on what Hanna does and when she does it. Ike could literally follow in Hanna’s wake or could keep heading west into the Gulf of Mexico. Either way, Ike is showing signs of being a major hurricane.

Hurricane Josephine will form today out of depression number ten. Behind Josephine, a new area of disturbed weather just formed which will likely be Kyle. It is incredible to see so many major storms alive at once in the Atlantic basin. It is also cause for extreme caution and vigilance on the part of everyone living near the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. The relentless parade of hurricanes will test everyone’s patience and place incredible stress on all levels of emergency management.

Of increasing concern is the ability of FEMA to be two or even three places at once. Much has been made of FEMA’s presence in Louisiana and now it is almost certain they will be needed in either South or North Carolina by the weekend. Depending on where Ike decides to visit, that would be three huge areas impacted at the same time. Let us hope things go better than three years ago when those affected by hurricanes Rita and Wilma saw very little help due to Katrina.

I will keep scouring the sources in my attempt to put together these updates as long as the need is there. Having a long standing interest in meteorology as well as hands on experience with Katrina relief and recovery; I feel qualified enough to speak with at least some degree of confidence on both the meteorological as well as “on the ground” aspects of these storms. Thank you reading.