The only way to have continuity is to have a standard which is not changed by the whims of agenda driven people. I honestly do not know which is worse, the failure to name the storm which came into the Carolina’s late last week or the naming of the ridiculous area of disturbed weather in the middle of nowhere today. Both decisions on the part of the NHC make a person question what standards they are using as criteria for naming storms.
At any rate, the name “Laura” has now been wasted on a subtropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean which might impact Iceland. Kyle must have forgotten his passport, for he never came close to the United States. The past week has not been a very good one for those who follow, forecast, track and name tropical systems. In all three cases, mistakes were made and the end result is that none of the three storms caused any great amount of hardship for anyone.
Our eyes must now turn to what lies ahead. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico must keep an eye on an area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan. Whether it develops into a named system or not, it promises to bring much rain to Florida this week. Not a good omen for the baseball crazed fans in Tampa.
The system marching across the Atlantic is one which stands a good chance of developing. There are other areas of disturbed weather exiting Africa which could end up turning into one of those long track hurricanes which can take a week or more to get close to our part of the world. At this time of the year, the Caribbean must be closely monitored for developing systems.
Most of the experts are thinking that there should be at least three more named storms. Whether Marco, Nana and Omar end up turning into Ike type storms or harmless ones like Laura cannot be determined at this time. Whether any upcoming storms will afflict the Gulf Coast, Florida or the East Coast is not available to know at this time. All we can do is look at the overall pattern and deduce that it is conducive to the development of tropical storms.
This year has been very active in one sense (twelve named storms), but very strange in others. Although hurricanes Dolly, Gustov and Ike did inflict major damage to Texas and Louisiana; tropical storm Fay may have actually effected more people though its relentless rain in Florida. Although the Carolina’s have been hit with two tropical storms this year, the recent no-name storm perhaps was more intense in some ways than either named storm.
What is important to understand is that October is still hurricane season. Some of the more impressive October hurricanes which stayed south of the United States were Mitch in 1998 which raked Honduras with torrential rains for days, Iris in 2001 which was a major category 4 hurricane that hit Belize and Keith in 2000 which struck Mexico twice.
The top three October hurricanes to hit the United States were Hazel in 1954 which was a huge category 4 hurricane which struck the South/North Carolina border October 15 of that year, Opal in 1993 which struck Pensacola, Florida as a major category 3 hurricane on October 4, and of course Wilma in 2005 which crashed into southwest Florida on October 24th of that infamous year.
Even though September is historically the most active month for hurricanes, October is roughly equivalent to August as far as potential for development. Due to seasonal cooling, the deeper into October we get, the more the threat shifts further south. All interests along the Gulf Coast, Florida and as far north as North Carolina must stay vigilant the next few weeks. Only after the middle of the month can this season start to be put in the archives.