Hurricane Kyle (?), Ike Relief and Recovery, Lack of Media Attetion and General Needs

Why the storm buffeting North Carolina with hurricane force winds is not named is a mystery known only to the government agency which is responsible for such things. If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it probably is a duck. It is quite fascinating to have warnings issued for hurricane force winds (for a coastal area) and there not even be a tropical storm.

The next storm, once it finally gets moving will head due north and probably pay Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine a visit. These areas are prone to minor hurricanes, and that is what this storm (Kyle whenever named) will probably be.

The next three weeks should provide some interesting developmental opportunities for new storms. Where these storms form and hit along with their timing is at the moment pure speculation. The point is that meteorologically, the conditions are very similar to when we saw Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike form in rapid fire succession.

The fear among many who look at and study weather is that no matter what might happen, it will be a minor story due to the big “save the economy” news out of Washington. The horrible situation in Texas and Louisiana has already fallen victim to bigger and greater news. Any legitimate threat of an approaching storm would surely suffer the same fate.

The worst time to be struck by a hurricane is the final month of a Presidential campaign that is being hotly contested. Add in the historic events happening with the economy this year and what has happened with post-Ike media coverage will be the norm for future storms.

I was speaking with an associate who continues to help those devastated by Hurricane Katrina the other day. I told this person that if “Katrina #2” did indeed strike the central Gulf Coast this fall, not to expect even 20% of the new coverage, let alone the offers to help that came after Katrina. The will and ability of Americans is just not there to help like they did three years ago.

Isn’t it amazing how those who need help the most receive the least? There are precious few news stories coming out of Ike affected areas, and those that are done are always about Galveston. All the other areas of the coast from Beaumont, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana receive ZERO attention. It is these areas where just like after Katrina and Rita three years ago, hundreds and thousands of people will “fall through the cracks” and be left to fend for themselves.

I feel badly for anyone who lost their home or had it badly damaged by Gustov or Ike. But my heart aches for those who lost their home or had it badly damaged and to this date, no one knows about it. Those who somehow fall through the cracks and receive no aid from FEMA, Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other government or private organization are the people I care most about.

Mainly senior citizens or those with disabilities, the people who fall through the cracks after a hurricane are usually the same ones who fall through the cracks every day of the week. These situations present very difficult cases for those who try and help people on a daily basis. Yet, if someone does not at least try to locate and extend to these people the offer of help; they will suffer the most after a storm.

Yes, many of these folks reject the very idea of help out of pride. They take pride in their independence and look at charity as a sign of weakness. Yet, there comes a time, especially when their home is falling down on top of them, that they finally accept offers of help. These cases many times provide caregivers with the most rewarding success stories.

Americans must remember that in rural areas, especially in southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, there are many times no organized services made available for seniors, those with disabilities and those too poor to afford public services. Many locations have nothing like a “senior center” to provide daily meals or a service to deliver meals to homebound seniors. Many areas have no form of transportation available to get those who are elderly, disabled or poor to doctor’s visits or even to get to the store.

These are interesting times in which we live and are bound to get even more interesting in the coming month to six weeks. God help us all to stay strong, alert and aware of changing situations and needs.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.

Louisiana–The Forgotten Battleground of Gustov and Ike (Rita too)

AMERICA—The call has gone forth and has not being heeded.

AMERICA—The needs are far greater than anyone knows.

AMERICA—Are you going to step up and meet the needs.

AMERICA—Your brothers and sisters await you.

While the vast majority of Americans are either pre-occupied with the daily financial market soap opera installment or spend all their time wondering what their favorite candidate said or didn’t say today; deep in our country’s hurricane ravaged South, the pain is deep and the need is greater. A story which should be at the top of the news has, amazingly almost dropped out of sight in the media.

On Labor day, Hurricane Gustov slammed into the central Louisiana coast as a strong category 3 hurricane. While all the eyes of the nation were glued to see whether New Orleans would survive; nary a soul was watching to see what Gustov actually did. As constant images of flood walls being overtopped by a little water filled our television screen, those gathered in Minnesota for the start of the Republican National Convention were holding a telethon to raise money for Gustov victims.

Amazingly, the next day Gustov was ancient history except for a few stories of evacuees scattered all over the Southern states. There was no media coverage of the damage caused by Gustov outside of New Orleans. By Wednesday of that week, there was no longer any coverage of the event whatsoever as all media attention was switched to the speech by Gov. Palin at the Convention.

As soon as the Convention ended, tropical storm/hurricane Hanna came to life and threatened Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina. Even while Hanna was toying with becoming a major storm, hurricane Ike exploded in the Bahamas into a giant hurricane. By the time Hanna had come and gone, Ike was quickly becoming the major story as it first destroyed Cuba and then set his sights on various places along the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, during this period of time, an absolutely incredible thing was taking place. Deep in the very heart of Louisiana, Hurricane Gustov victims were by and large being totally neglected and forgotten. Unlike every other major hurricane to strike this country, there was no media coverage, no racing to the scene by various charities and very little help from even government agencies. It was as if no one cared about what had happened because of the people involved.

Who lives in this area of Louisiana anyway? What do they do down there? Why should I care about some God forsaken, mosquito infested backwater chunk of real estate in one of the strangest states in the country? These were the questions America asked after Gustov, instead of those which should have been asked.

Should it really matter where disaster strikes in this country? Should it really matter whether those impacted are rich or poor, white or black of English origin or Cajuns? Should it really matter if the area which is devastated is lush farmland or a swamp? Should it really matter what state the disaster is in?

Hurricane Rita ravaged this area three years ago. No one knew and no one cared. One ministry out of Lafayette tried to provide food and supplies to people scattered from Cameron Parish to New Iberia. That is until their resources ran out 9 months after Rita hit. There was never any Red Cross or Salvation Army presence. FEMA came and moved in and quickly moved out to handle Katrina related matters. While these tattered and torn people had no one helping them, those in New Orleans and Mississippi were being flooded with supplies and volunteers.

Does lightning strike twice? You bet, especially when those who have little to begin with are affected. Those people scattered in south central Louisiana were devastated by Rita in 2005 with little or no outside help to repair and rebuild. This same area, but now including Baton Rouge and Lafayette had to deal with the full fury of hurricane Gustov. Lest we forget, Gustov was a stronger hurricane than Ike. Less than two weeks after Gustov, this same area was swamped by hurricane Ike.

What is it like to live in an area no one knows about or cares anything about? It breeds self reliance and extreme bitterness. Those who live in these areas are highly skeptical of anyone claiming they want to help. They have been neglected and forgotten about countless times. Why should they believe this time is any different?

Last week, the day before Ike hit; a retire medical doctor from Gulfport, MS who goes only by “Doc” braved the rising waters and took some much needed food to these people in south central Louisiana. Just barely beating the rising storm surge from Ike leaving, he was awed by what he saw. This says a lot because Doc has been rounding up food and other supplies for Katrina victims since the day after Katrina hit.

Yesterday Carolyn Thompson from Tri Coastal Community Outreach in Grand Bay, Alabama returned with Doc to Louisiana to drop off more supplies. Fighting knee deep water, the devastation they found is beyond description. Yet, America does not know and could really care less about what is going on in New Iberia, Louisiana. See, America is too busy raising money to elect another worthless President. America is too busy crying over drops in the Stock Market. America is too busy trying to help those in Houston and Galveston to worry about Louisiana.

Please America, though they may not be many and they are certainly not mighty or influential; our fellow citizens in Louisiana desperately need our help. Unlike Texas where outside help has problems getting in, there is no such problems in Louisiana. Any and all help is desperately needed. For more information and current status please contact:

Carolyn Thompson, Director of Tri Coastal Community Outreach–(228) 623-0017, or go to Tri Coastal’s website at http://www.tricoastalcommunity.org/main.htm or contact me via my website at http://heart2heartshare.com/contactus.htm

The Gustov/Ike legacy is FAR MORE than Houston or Galveston. There are smaller less populated areas stretching from Galveston all the way to Mobile, Alabama which have suffered greatly from storm surge damage from these two storms. Please, there are huge immediate needs NOT being met in many of these areas. As soon as the water ever goes down, there will be a gigantic need for supplies and volunteers all along the Gulf coast.

America; Houston has a problem–Ike WILL be far worse than Katrina

This just in–water is available in Liverpool, 30 miles from Galveston!

Do not expect any documentable real news from Ike’s strike until later today or probably tomorrow. As in any disaster, initial reports will be too rosy or too dire. It will take days for the full scope of this disaster to be known. No one has a clue how many people ignored the mandatory evacuation orders, so those involved with search and rescue do not know how many people they are looking for. Estimates of close to 150,000 people in the counties affected make this a daunting task for sure.

Due to the size of Ike, hurricane conditions will continue to buffet the entire area most of today. Do not expect to see anything but the barest of live of coverage from the worst areas. It is simply not safe for anyone to go out until the water recedes and the winds die down. Houston must endure many hours of relentless high tides and winds. No definitive details of its fate will be known today.

High tide in Galveston matched pretty much when Ike came ashore. Only time will tell what has become of the estimated 15,000 people who stayed and refused to leave the island. The honest fear is that from Galveston all the way to the western suburbs of New Orleans when the water recedes what will be found is carnage due to the high numbers of people who failed to leave the areas.

The time has come in America for mandatory evacuations to mean just that. If people refuse to leave, they should either be arrested and hauled to some secure facility or sign a paper acknowledging NO emergency services are available and no lawsuits can be filed. Images of emergency personnel risking their lives to save those who at the very last minute “chickened out” and wanted to escape the storm make me very upset.

What good does a “mandatory evacuation” order mean if 20% of the people ignore it? The entire evacuation process in this country is a joke. Evacuations are ordered when not needed and not ordered when they are. People pick and choose which “mandatory” evacuation orders they want to abide by and then expect to be rescued when they ignore such orders.

For the next few days, just like after a major earthquake, the emphasis is on search and rescue. Those trained in this field are called “first responders” and their mission is to find, treat and rescue anyone still alive after this disaster. Only after those in critical situations are rescued will the search for those who died start in earnest. Only after that will the emphasis switch to helping those NOT in life threatening situations.

This tragedy will far surpass Katrina simply due to the amount of people involved and the size of the area covered. Just as in Katrina’s case, there will be hundreds of thousands of people with no power, no jobs and pretty much no house for weeks if not months. Sure, in a few days look for every spare electric truck in the country to head toward this area to help get the power on. But, along the coast there will be no power and no help for a very long time.

Keep this in mind; there are still thousands of people in Louisiana and Mississippi and Alabama who have never gotten repairs made to their homes after Katrina three years ago. There is simply not enough crews, money and charities around to get to everyone. Now this disaster will be added into the mix. Everyone knows those with the most money will get repairs first, for they can afford to pay cash. Those who must hassle with insurance companies many times go months and years before receiving the funds needed to get roofs fixed and other repairs.

Just as in Katrina and Rita’s cases, there will be thousands of people who had no insurance and who must depend on FEMA or charities to provide assistance. Again, due to the size of this disaster, every governmental and charitable organization in existence will be taxed to the max over the next few months and years.

Make no mistake about it. We will be dealing with various effects of Ike for years. There are NO quick fixes after a major hurricane hit. Everything will go in slow motion for quite some time due to a multitude of issues from contaminated water to broken glass to electric wires down to hundreds of thousands of buildings which must be gutted before the mold makes them uninhabitable to …

As this drama turns the page to what comes next, please continue to pray for those whose lives have been turned upside down and inside out by this storm. Honestly, we will not know much of anything about the scope of this disaster for days. In the meantime I pray America realizes that like it or not; we have Katrina #2 on our hands—only worse.

The Ugly Truth about the Discrimination in Disaster Coverage and Relief

Lest there be any confusion or misunderstanding, let me set the record straight regarding the dark secret of disasters in this country. Not all disasters are treated equal. Not by any stretch of the imagination. The way a disaster (or potential disaster) is covered in one area bears no resemblance to how it would be treated in another. The ultimate criteria for media coverage and immediate help are political impact and ratings.

Two weeks ago at this time the country of Jamaica was being beaten by Hurricane Gustov. In the days which followed, Gustov managed to usurp the Sen. Obama’s acceptance speech and Sen. McCain’s choice of Gov. Palin as his running mate as the major news story. Instead of seeing images of the opening day of the Republican National Convention on September 1^st, all eyes were glued to the storm that was supposed to kill New Orleans once and for all.

The country, politicians and media of all types waited for the story of the decade to unfold. For many, the fact that Gustov missed causing the destruction of New Orleans was a source of bitter disappointment. As quickly as all the television satellite trucks came, they left and headed for Minnesota and convention they never wanted to attend to begin with. FEMA picked up and moved to the East Coast in anticipation of hurricane Hanna striking there.

The end result was that no one in the United States of America knew that Gustov DID cause incredible damage and untold human suffering in areas just to the west and northwest of New Orleans. Why does no one know? Because there was no “big story” coming out of Baton Rouge, or Lafayette; let alone New Iberia or Grand Isle. Who wants to hear about the suffering Cajuns or see images of heavily damaged poor WHITE people’s homes and businesses?

So now we sit on the precipice of the greatest natural disaster to hit the United States in its history—Hurricane Ike; and where is the non-stop media coverage? Where are the trucks lined up and fighting each other for position to get the best images of poor black people’s homes flooded and destroyed by hurricane winds? Where are the news stories of all the FEMA people and resources standing by ready to swoop in and save the day? There are none because the destruction of Galveston or Houston is not as compelling as the destruction of New Orleans would have been.

The sick and perverted way disasters are handled in this country drives those who try to help in these disasters crazy. While one area receives tons of help and media coverage which promotes more help, another area receives no coverage and thus very little help. Hurricane Rita bore this truth out three years ago. The amount of aid sent to areas destroyed by Rita was a trickle compared to what went to Katrina areas, especially New Orleans.

I went to Cameron, Louisiana seven months after Rita hit. There was no one single relief agency anywhere to be found. Every single group had left the area. There was NO ONE helping these people survive, let alone rebuild their lives. Many groups had to quit because they could not find resources or volunteers to help. All available aid was going to the 5 star volunteer camps erected in and around New Orleans. No one cared about where Rita did its most damage.

When a tornado ripped Greensburg, Kansas off the face of the map, for some reason the media jumped on the story and every relief agency in existence flooded the area before even FEMA could lock down the place. Greensburg became a national icon of disaster relief and recovery. Meanwhile, a tornado ripped areas of Eagle Pass and Piedras Negras, Mexico off the map also. I tried contacting every one of the same agencies which gladly descended on Greensburg to help. Not one of them was willing to lift a finger to aid the area due to the Mexican influence.

Other towns have suffered the same fate as Greensburg since that disaster. Far too many to list in fact. North Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee are just a few of the states which have seen either F-5 tornadoes demolish a town or a rash of tornadoes destroy many towns. Not one of these areas or towns has ever received a tenth of the attention or help Greensburg received. Why? I don’t have an answer for that one, I only know the facts.

A month or so before Greensburg was flattened, a tornado tore though Enterprise, Alabama and hit a high school killing a number of students. The story made national news for a day or so. Weeks after the tornado, there was nigh unto no assistance coming in to the area. I toured the area and found out why. The lion’s share of the damage was to the black part of town except for the high school where the students died. All available resources were diverted to “white” towns in Georgia which had been devastated by the same storms which hit Enterprise.

Disaster relief is not color blind and is many times determined by where the potential for most media coverage and political benefit is found. The discrimination found in providing help to victims of disasters, large and small, is staggering. Soon, I will post excerpts from an account written less than a week after Gustov hit the central Louisiana coast telling of the incredible damage and human suffering. No one knows this story for no one is there covering it. Now after Ike hits, this poor area will receive no media coverage, no outside help and very little government help.

There are many things in the United States which are good and wonderful and reflect the honest desire on the part of many of its citizens and agencies to help others in time of need. There are also many dark and ugly elephants in the closets of many groups whose claim is to equally share resources and volunteers with those in need. The sad reality is that for every disaster, every town and every family who receives the loving support and help of strangers, there are ten who never see anyone but a stray government official or scam artist. This is a sad testimony to our heart of giving .

Ike Heading for Freeport, TX=A Worse than Carla Scenario for Houston

CONDITION CRITICAL

Those living in the Galveston and Houston area need to get a move on or face dire consequences. Those still mesmerized by the hourly wobbles in computer models and official statements from the NHC better get some guts and start making decisions based on instinct rather than what the latest model run shows. The situation with Ike is far more critical than Rita ever was, yet there is still a complacency in the very area targeted for destruction. Why?

If you turned on the television one day and heard that commercial jet airplanes had been deliberately crashed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York, and a plane had hit the Pentagon in Washington and another had crashed in Pennsylvania—what would be the instinctive reaction? Well, what was the reaction to this news seven years ago this day? The country basically “hunkered down” for a season anticipating another attack any minute. In other words, the situation warranted drastic action due to the uncertainties involved.

I remember schools closing, people leaving work in droves and pretty much the country going into shut down mode as the initial reports of what took place on this date in 2001 filtered in. The authorities everywhere did all that was possible to keep panic from setting in and did all they could to facilitate order and promote a sense of security. No one old enough to recall the events of this date will ever forget the uneasiness that arose from not knowing what was coming next and the helpless feeling of not being able to do a thing to prevent it.

Ike has the capacity to cause more damage and disrupt more things than either the attacks on 9-11 or Hurricane Katrina. IF Ike should become a category 4 or 5 storm and come ashore at or near Freeport, Texas; the worst case scenario would be played out in Galveston and Houston. What appalls me is that here we sit less than 48 hours from landfall and still the general attitude is one of “it will miss us” or “it won’t be that bad”. Years of false alarms have produced an apathetic attitude.

GUSTOV AND RITA

There would be no problem getting people to understand the urgency of this situation if not for the Rita false alarm of three years ago and the recent spectacle of evacuating New Orleans for a minimal storm (for them). Just as most people ignore tornado warnings because the tornado never affects them personally, so more and more people ignore hurricane watches and warnings due to feeling invincible. If the events of 9-11 and Katrina should have taught us anything, it is that we are NOT invincible and catastrophic disasters CAN and DO impact us in this country.

Fools sit back and stake their protection on the mistaken notion that just because nothing happened before, it never will happen. Such foolishness always breeds apathy and complacency toward potential disasters. As someone I know quite well says all the time, “foolishness doesn’t impress me.”

TAKE ACTION NOW OR FACE THE CONSEQUENCES

Unless those in harm’s way act now, there is no way the number of people involved will get out in time. Ike is a huge storm and its effects will be felt LONG BEFORE the eye of the storm makes landfall. Once the winds start rising and the outer bands of rain set in; the panic will soon follow. As hundreds of thousands of vehicles hit the road at the same time, we all know what happens—gridlock.

THE worst case scenario would be to be trapped in your car when a hurricane hits. Any place would be better than a car. Between winds, flooding rain and storm surge; a car is no match for a hurricane. The time to go is now before the ability to move is hindered by volume.

No one who lived through Katrina ever expected to suffer what they did where they lived. No one had ever seen a storm surge go ten or more miles inland. No one had ever seen severe tree and roof damage 125 miles from the coast before. No one had ever seen so many tornadoes and other freaks of nature associated with a major hurricane before. No one anticipated so many problems.

CONCLUSION

Preparation now has come down to either leaving or making sure all is in place to weather the storm. Just having a generator is not enough, is there enough gasoline to keep it going for weeks? Is there enough fresh water to last for up to a week? Is there enough food that does not need an oven to last for a week? Is there medicine and first aid supplies and TOILET PAPER to last for upwards of week or more? Is there CASH money around to get things? Is the cell phone charger in the car to keep it charged if there is no power?

I believe Ike could end up cutting power to as many as 6 or 7 million people for upwards of a month or more in a worst case scenario. I believe the city of Houston could end up being coated with an oily mess just like the areas impacted by Gustov were. I believe there is a distinct possibility the entire area could be basically shut down for weeks just like after Katrina. These things are not just some wild science fiction ideas, they are entirely possible and PROBABLE based on what appears to be happening with Ike.  This could very well end up being the Houston Carla.

URGENT–Galveston and Houston Now Appear in Ike’s Sight

URGENT

Look at the latest GDFL model run!! It now has Ike going straight for Galveston/Houston. This is an extremely bad situation. Ike is intensifying quickly and no doubt will attain category 3 and probably category 4 status. A worst case scenario would be a hit to the south of Galveston pushing a huge storm surge up Galveston Bay. Considering the amount of oil related businesses, this could be an economic and environmental disaster.

Is the greater Houston area prepared for winds of 100 mph or greater? I don’t know for I don’t live there. All I know is that at this time, no one outside of coastal Texas is taking Ike seriously. Ike will pass hundreds of miles to the south of Mississippi yet there are coastal flood warnings in place there until Friday. Word has it the water is already high and covering some roads. What is going to happen as Ike gets bigger and stronger and passes by New Orleans and areas hit by Gustov?

Ike is still not a major news story because the nation as a whole is far more interested in lipstick on various animals than the potential catastrophe heading for Texas. Whether the nation as a whole wakes up to what is happening or not, those living near where Ike could end up making landfall need to be packing their vehicles and getting a head start on the monumental traffic jam coming when millions of people will try leave at once.

IKE IS NOT GOING AWAY.

Ike is behaving in much the same way Katrina and Rita did three years ago. A storm the size of Ike is not going to just fall apart in September in the Gulf of Mexico. With each passing model run, the odds of Ike hitting farther and farther UP the coast of Texas increase. Yet, I heard on the news a couple of hours ago about Ike maybe hitting Brownsville. What planet were they on? NO ONE is talking about a south Texas hit any longer.

The multitudes of people in the Galveston/Houston area will end up having less than 48 hours to get out of the way of Ike. Many will think just going inland fifty miles will allow them to be safe. Let me tell you, after seeing the damage Katrina did 125 miles north of landfall, those people will deeply regret only going 50 miles.

There is a huge risk of a massive tornado outbreak with Ike just as there was Rita. I was at Cameron, Louisiana and spoke with survivors. They lived through Rita and told me there were “hundreds of tornadoes” and that it was the tornadoes which caused as much damage as the storm surge and winds. I was at a hurricane conference in Houston and brought this up and was promptly shot down by the “experts” at the NHC.

THE REAL AND PRESENT DANGER

Complacency breeds disaster. Far too many people have been lulled into a false sense of security by looking at maps showing Ike heading for south Texas. Unless people wake up and realize what is happening with the steering currents, they will not have time to get out. Whether the storm actually makes it all the way to Galveston or not, the people there and in Houston have to deal with highways unable to handle the mass exodus of a total evacuation. The nightmares associated with the Rita evacuation have caused many to wait until the last minute to leave. Not a good thing.

Many of the oil rigs in the Gulf have already been caught off guard by Ike and many more will be. When looking at the satellite it is obvious that Ike is quickly taking on all the characteristics of a major hurricane, including taking up most of the Gulf of Mexico. There is a very real chance that by tomorrow, Ike could look on a satellite almost exactly as both Katrina and Rita did at nearly the same spot. The difference is that those two storms went predominantly north and Ike is going west to northwest.

Please, if you live anywhere on the Texas coast or have interests there, investigate what is really being said about Ike outside of the “official” line. Ike will become a major news story shortly, and once it does, it will be a royal mess trying to go anywhere. A smart person would already have the car and truck packed and ready to leave at a moment’s notice. I pray all involved are smart people.

I just checked with one of my most trusted sources and he has pulled the trigger urging the evacuation of Galveston and Houston. I know he would not go out on that limb if he did not feel there was reason to risk his reputation and worse. Those with interests in the area need to not only have the car packed, but the gas tank full and the engine running. Please stay abreast of this potentially horrible disaster in the making.

Be Prepared, Have a Plan and Keep One Eye on the Southeastern Sky

Three years ago, the United States felt a collective punch in the gut as hurricane Katrina slammed ashore and brought with it human suffering and physical damage previously unimagined. Before Katrina, the worst disaster to hit the country was hurricane Andrew. Many years had passed since Andrew blew away Homestead, Florida and much of the country had forgotten just how devastating a major hurricane can be when it hits a populated area.

Less than a month after Katrina scoured the Mississippi coast and flooded New Orleans; hurricane Rita formed and quickly became a category 5 storm. Initially it appeared Rita would surpass Katrina as far as strength and location. By all apparent indications, Rita looked like it was heading directly for Galveston and then Houston, Texas.

With images of Katrina fresh in people’s minds, millions of people tried to leave Houston all at once and succeeded in producing the world’s biggest traffic jam. Before the last of the evacuee’s could make it out of town, Rita moved to the east and ended up slamming into the Lake Charles, Louisiana area. Even though it weakened, the damage the storm surge alone caused to small fishing communities on the coast was surreal.

Near the end of the hurricane season, Wilma formed in the Gulf of Mexico and headed east to Florida. Wilma slammed into far southern Florida with a vengeance and only added to the woes from the previous year when one storm after another criss-crossed the state causing staggering losses to property. Thankfully, Wilma did not hit where Charley had exploded the previous year. Wilma veered a little to the south.

In three months in 2005, three major hurricanes plowed into the Gulf coast of the United States. The weakest of the three, Katrina, ended up becoming a tragedy this country never had dealt with before. What would have happened if:

1. Katrina had not weakened from a category 5 to a category 3 storm by the time it made landfall?

2. Rita would have stayed on course and remained a category 5 storm hitting Galveston and then Houston, Texas?

3. Rita would have kept going east and hit the same area Katrina had torn up a few weeks earlier?

4. Wilma would have veered off course and hit the same area Katrina and Rita had hit?

Perhaps one of the worst things to come out of the Rita scare was the reluctance now on the part of the masses to heed warnings to evacuate. Most people would rather take their chances riding out a hurricane than get stuck in a traffic jam like the one those leaving Houston encountered. It is nigh unto impossible to convince people to evacuate anyway, but after the Rita fiasco, it has been even harder.

Fast forward to the present. We currently have Gustov unexpectedly hitting Jamaica. Where it goes, how strong it gets and the precise location it ends up hitting are all unknowns at present. Yesterday the NHC track had it going straight into New Orleans. Today it is further west. By the time it gets close enough to know for sure where it is going to hit, there is not enough time to prepare and evacuate. This is no one’s fault, it is just the result of inexact science.

Getting ready to blow up into hurricane Hanna a storm is poised to head straight for southern Florida this time next week. Again, it is impossible to know if this will be a huge storm or a minimal one. It is also absolutely impossible to know where it is heading. Due to meteorological conditions, it is pretty much a certainty this storm will form, grow and head west from the Bahamas toward Florida.

Far out in the Atlantic there are the beginnings of what might be Ike. This is entirely too far away to be concerned with except to say that this hurricane season will seemingly go on forever with storms and rumors of storms. There is a very real chance we could still see a major East Coast hurricane in October. This is not unheard of, since Hugo was a devastating October hurricane.

Weather forecasting is full of “what ifs”. The models take all the “what ifs” into account and try to provide the most logical outcome. But, with so many variables, there is no way to know even 24 hours in advance the precise location a hurricane’s eye will cross land. This is why hurricane watches must be taken as more than a nuisance and warnings must be heeded unless a person has a death wish.

Years ago a combination of events led to the “perfect storm” written about and then made into a hit movie. Perfect storms are extremely rare, but occasionally take place. They are the sum total of all the “what ifs” coming together in the worst case scenario. Thankfully the afore mentioned “what ifs” three years ago did not take place. Thus, the country was spared the agony of watching either three huge metropolitan areas hit by category 5 hurricanes within a couple of months or one location getting hit two or three times.

God forbid the current string of storms would produce the same scenario as three years ago; although there is that faint possibility. All persons from Galveston/Houston to Miami should at least be aware that there is a chance one or more major hurricanes could strike within the next two months, and especially within the next two weeks.

Common sense demands general preparations be in place every year along the Gulf Coast. This year, I believe the preparation needs to be ratcheted up a notch due to the relentless storm/rumor of storm situation presenting itself. More than anything else, people should at least have a plan. Those who suffer the most in any storm are those who had no plan to deal with what might arise. Be prepared, have a plan and keep one eye on the southeastern sky.