Kyle and Economic Crash averted this time, but the threats are still with us

I will say this for not only the economic sector of the United States, but also the hurricane; I am beginning to believe this country is like the cat with nine lives. Once again, what could have been with Kyle will not be as bad as thought due to it staying east. Maine will certainly have a wet and windy day, but Cape Cod and nearby areas were spared—this time.

With each “near miss”, whether New England, North Carolina, Florida or New Orleans; there builds a mistaken assumption that the “really bad one” will ever hit. This is exactly what led to the whole Katrina debacle and perhaps the Ike disaster in Galveston. When it comes to nature, one must respect that as humans, we do not control it.

If a few meteorological details would have been slightly different, the two storms (Kyle and the unnamed storm) which flirted with the country the past few days could have resulted in a much worse scenario. The headlines would be quite different today if a category 1 hurricane had ripped into Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday and a category 2 hurricane tore across Long Island last night. Just as most people do not have any idea how close we came to total economic meltdown this week, so they don’t know how close we came to two hurricanes hitting the coast within two days of each other.

Congressional action prevented the economic hurricane from crushing the United States economy. Atmospheric changes in winds and pressure prevented the two hurricanes from buffeting the coastline. The economic mess is still there and after the initial hoopla over the accord reached by Congress and the White House, the underlying problems will result in another crisis down the road. Weather conditions still favor the development of tropical systems over the next few weeks.

The moral to the story is simply that we must not become complacent either in regards to the financial mess or the potential for future storms. Perhaps there is cause for rejoicing that the world’s financial markets will not crash tomorrow, but there is no reason to sit back and think “all is well” either. There is good reason to rejoice in that Kyle snubbed Martha and her vineyard and decided to check out the sights in Nova Scotia. But, Laura is bound to pop up somewhere soon and where she goes, at the moment nobody knows.

Perhaps, if we are still around to talk about it, down the road we can look back on the last weekend of September of 2008 as NOT the weekend of devastating economic storms and double hurricanes; but rather as the weekend we were temporarily spared, as a country, from the pain and suffering of three storms hitting at the same time. However great the rejoicing is today, I pray it does not lend itself to apathy in the future.

Hurricane Kyle (?), Ike Relief and Recovery, Lack of Media Attetion and General Needs

Why the storm buffeting North Carolina with hurricane force winds is not named is a mystery known only to the government agency which is responsible for such things. If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it probably is a duck. It is quite fascinating to have warnings issued for hurricane force winds (for a coastal area) and there not even be a tropical storm.

The next storm, once it finally gets moving will head due north and probably pay Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine a visit. These areas are prone to minor hurricanes, and that is what this storm (Kyle whenever named) will probably be.

The next three weeks should provide some interesting developmental opportunities for new storms. Where these storms form and hit along with their timing is at the moment pure speculation. The point is that meteorologically, the conditions are very similar to when we saw Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike form in rapid fire succession.

The fear among many who look at and study weather is that no matter what might happen, it will be a minor story due to the big “save the economy” news out of Washington. The horrible situation in Texas and Louisiana has already fallen victim to bigger and greater news. Any legitimate threat of an approaching storm would surely suffer the same fate.

The worst time to be struck by a hurricane is the final month of a Presidential campaign that is being hotly contested. Add in the historic events happening with the economy this year and what has happened with post-Ike media coverage will be the norm for future storms.

I was speaking with an associate who continues to help those devastated by Hurricane Katrina the other day. I told this person that if “Katrina #2” did indeed strike the central Gulf Coast this fall, not to expect even 20% of the new coverage, let alone the offers to help that came after Katrina. The will and ability of Americans is just not there to help like they did three years ago.

Isn’t it amazing how those who need help the most receive the least? There are precious few news stories coming out of Ike affected areas, and those that are done are always about Galveston. All the other areas of the coast from Beaumont, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana receive ZERO attention. It is these areas where just like after Katrina and Rita three years ago, hundreds and thousands of people will “fall through the cracks” and be left to fend for themselves.

I feel badly for anyone who lost their home or had it badly damaged by Gustov or Ike. But my heart aches for those who lost their home or had it badly damaged and to this date, no one knows about it. Those who somehow fall through the cracks and receive no aid from FEMA, Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other government or private organization are the people I care most about.

Mainly senior citizens or those with disabilities, the people who fall through the cracks after a hurricane are usually the same ones who fall through the cracks every day of the week. These situations present very difficult cases for those who try and help people on a daily basis. Yet, if someone does not at least try to locate and extend to these people the offer of help; they will suffer the most after a storm.

Yes, many of these folks reject the very idea of help out of pride. They take pride in their independence and look at charity as a sign of weakness. Yet, there comes a time, especially when their home is falling down on top of them, that they finally accept offers of help. These cases many times provide caregivers with the most rewarding success stories.

Americans must remember that in rural areas, especially in southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, there are many times no organized services made available for seniors, those with disabilities and those too poor to afford public services. Many locations have nothing like a “senior center” to provide daily meals or a service to deliver meals to homebound seniors. Many areas have no form of transportation available to get those who are elderly, disabled or poor to doctor’s visits or even to get to the store.

These are interesting times in which we live and are bound to get even more interesting in the coming month to six weeks. God help us all to stay strong, alert and aware of changing situations and needs.

Ike Fatalities, Gustov Devastation, New York Hurricane Threat; Where is the Media Attention?

To say that I am shocked would be a gross understatement. To say that I am surprised would not be true. To say that I am disgusted would perhaps best describe how I feel about the change in media policy toward covering REAL NEWS.

In a matter of three weeks, this country has been rocked by two major hurricanes along with a powerful tropical storm. Before this month is over, there will be storm lash the Carolina’s which will be as strong as most tropical storms. Before this month is over, there will be a hurricane of undetermined intensity strike either New York or New England. Where is the coverage of any of this in the news? It is not there.

The media has determined that they devoted enough time and space to Hurricane Ike coverage and have moved on to the greener pastures of the Washington economic bail out and the continuing fake news on the political front. Once most of Houston got their power back on and once the citizens of Galveston were allowed to at least see what became of their homes; the media figured their job was done and they were gone. The problem is that unless there remains a media presence, the American people quickly forget about a situation due their collective attention deficit disorder.

It seems the American public cannot focus on anything longer than a few hours. I would venture to say that the overwhelming majority of Americans have totally forgotten about Hurricane Gustov and are quickly forgetting about Ike. A few days removed from the front page and most stories are distant history.

The unfortunate reality when it comes to disaster relief is that the real work comes long after everyone things the work was all done. The tasks of repairing, rebuilding and restoring buildings and lives takes an enormous amount of time, work and money. Recovery from a major disaster entails far more than just pumping water out of a flooded basement or fixing a few shingles on the roof.

When I first visited New Orleans 8 months after Katrina hit one of the things that stood out most to me was the lack of retail businesses needed to repair, rebuild and restore. I made many trips to the one Home Depot that was open and waited in lines for upwards of two hours. There were few Wal-Mart’s and Targets open for months and even fewer grocery stores and restaurants. Part of the problem in New Orleans was the lack of people to work at these places.

If the majority of people in an area have had to leave due to major destruction, there of necessity will be a labor shortage for the few places trying to open. Another issue is where the evacuees are staying. If the area is demolished, they are not going to be staying in the area. They will be anywhere from a few miles to a continent away. Yet another problem is lack of reliable contractors and laborers to do the work.

Once debris removal is complete, the first thing that must be done to damaged homes and buildings is the removal of damaged drywall. The “gutting” out of structures is absolutely necessary to keep mold from taking over the dwelling. After Katrina, crews of volunteers from all over the United States descended on New Orleans and Mississippi just to gut all the structures which received water damage. When it comes to gutting, the need is volunteers and not supplies.

The next thing that must be addressed are the roofs. Immediately after a storm, blue tarps are put on damaged roofs to prevent moisture from getting in and ruining drywall and to prevent mold from growing. Logically, there is great need initially for roofing supplies and roofers. I am sure that there is a growing shortage of both supplies and workers in the roofing industry in Louisiana and Texas.

After roofs are fixed then, and only then, can the rebuilding stage start. It is utter folly to start repairs inside the house before the roof is repaired. Once the roof is finished, then a contractor must determine if the floor is ruined. Usually flooring is the next side of things to need supplies and workers. Notice how with each step of restoration the job becomes more expensive and labor intensive? Along with flooring comes electrical wiring and plumbing issues. Of course before all this are infrastructure needs that must be addressed.

Finally, after the roof, infrastructure, floors, electric and plumbing are done; then the time consuming and very expensive task of putting up new drywall starts. Even when that is done there remains the replacement of furniture, carpeting and drapes. The entire process of restoring a severely damaged building is very expensive and time consuming.

In the months and years after Katrina, there were constant shortages of building supplies that matched the progress being made. Initially there were shortages of lumber and roofing materials. Then there were shortages of flooring materials. Finally, the biggest shortage of all was drywall. Even once the literal shortages were relieved, there remained a dire shortage of qualified workers to do the work.

If the media had not kept the attention of America focused on Katrina for many months, there would not have been the continual outpouring of donated goods and volunteer services that continue unto this day. Yes, it has been three years since Katrina and there are still people either waiting for insurance money to get their home repaired or volunteer agencies to help when there was no money available.

The myths in disaster recovery are as follows:

1. Everyone has insurance and thus have the means to get repairs made

2. The area is flooded with reputable contractors and supplies

3. All the work is done and finished in a few weeks or months

4. Volunteers are only needed at the beginning of the relief effort

5. Donations of goods and money are only needed directly after the disaster

The great secret to success in disaster relief and recovery depends in part upon governmental agencies doing their part, private businesses doing their part and service groups and charities doing their part. It takes a team effort to see prompt and proper disaster relief, repair, rebuilding and restoration. The catalyst for this is constant media attention. It is truly a shame the media has chosen to leave the victims in Louisiana and Texas to fend for themselves.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.

Louisiana–The Forgotten Battleground of Gustov and Ike (Rita too)

AMERICA—The call has gone forth and has not being heeded.

AMERICA—The needs are far greater than anyone knows.

AMERICA—Are you going to step up and meet the needs.

AMERICA—Your brothers and sisters await you.

While the vast majority of Americans are either pre-occupied with the daily financial market soap opera installment or spend all their time wondering what their favorite candidate said or didn’t say today; deep in our country’s hurricane ravaged South, the pain is deep and the need is greater. A story which should be at the top of the news has, amazingly almost dropped out of sight in the media.

On Labor day, Hurricane Gustov slammed into the central Louisiana coast as a strong category 3 hurricane. While all the eyes of the nation were glued to see whether New Orleans would survive; nary a soul was watching to see what Gustov actually did. As constant images of flood walls being overtopped by a little water filled our television screen, those gathered in Minnesota for the start of the Republican National Convention were holding a telethon to raise money for Gustov victims.

Amazingly, the next day Gustov was ancient history except for a few stories of evacuees scattered all over the Southern states. There was no media coverage of the damage caused by Gustov outside of New Orleans. By Wednesday of that week, there was no longer any coverage of the event whatsoever as all media attention was switched to the speech by Gov. Palin at the Convention.

As soon as the Convention ended, tropical storm/hurricane Hanna came to life and threatened Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina. Even while Hanna was toying with becoming a major storm, hurricane Ike exploded in the Bahamas into a giant hurricane. By the time Hanna had come and gone, Ike was quickly becoming the major story as it first destroyed Cuba and then set his sights on various places along the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, during this period of time, an absolutely incredible thing was taking place. Deep in the very heart of Louisiana, Hurricane Gustov victims were by and large being totally neglected and forgotten. Unlike every other major hurricane to strike this country, there was no media coverage, no racing to the scene by various charities and very little help from even government agencies. It was as if no one cared about what had happened because of the people involved.

Who lives in this area of Louisiana anyway? What do they do down there? Why should I care about some God forsaken, mosquito infested backwater chunk of real estate in one of the strangest states in the country? These were the questions America asked after Gustov, instead of those which should have been asked.

Should it really matter where disaster strikes in this country? Should it really matter whether those impacted are rich or poor, white or black of English origin or Cajuns? Should it really matter if the area which is devastated is lush farmland or a swamp? Should it really matter what state the disaster is in?

Hurricane Rita ravaged this area three years ago. No one knew and no one cared. One ministry out of Lafayette tried to provide food and supplies to people scattered from Cameron Parish to New Iberia. That is until their resources ran out 9 months after Rita hit. There was never any Red Cross or Salvation Army presence. FEMA came and moved in and quickly moved out to handle Katrina related matters. While these tattered and torn people had no one helping them, those in New Orleans and Mississippi were being flooded with supplies and volunteers.

Does lightning strike twice? You bet, especially when those who have little to begin with are affected. Those people scattered in south central Louisiana were devastated by Rita in 2005 with little or no outside help to repair and rebuild. This same area, but now including Baton Rouge and Lafayette had to deal with the full fury of hurricane Gustov. Lest we forget, Gustov was a stronger hurricane than Ike. Less than two weeks after Gustov, this same area was swamped by hurricane Ike.

What is it like to live in an area no one knows about or cares anything about? It breeds self reliance and extreme bitterness. Those who live in these areas are highly skeptical of anyone claiming they want to help. They have been neglected and forgotten about countless times. Why should they believe this time is any different?

Last week, the day before Ike hit; a retire medical doctor from Gulfport, MS who goes only by “Doc” braved the rising waters and took some much needed food to these people in south central Louisiana. Just barely beating the rising storm surge from Ike leaving, he was awed by what he saw. This says a lot because Doc has been rounding up food and other supplies for Katrina victims since the day after Katrina hit.

Yesterday Carolyn Thompson from Tri Coastal Community Outreach in Grand Bay, Alabama returned with Doc to Louisiana to drop off more supplies. Fighting knee deep water, the devastation they found is beyond description. Yet, America does not know and could really care less about what is going on in New Iberia, Louisiana. See, America is too busy raising money to elect another worthless President. America is too busy crying over drops in the Stock Market. America is too busy trying to help those in Houston and Galveston to worry about Louisiana.

Please America, though they may not be many and they are certainly not mighty or influential; our fellow citizens in Louisiana desperately need our help. Unlike Texas where outside help has problems getting in, there is no such problems in Louisiana. Any and all help is desperately needed. For more information and current status please contact:

Carolyn Thompson, Director of Tri Coastal Community Outreach–(228) 623-0017, or go to Tri Coastal’s website at http://www.tricoastalcommunity.org/main.htm or contact me via my website at http://heart2heartshare.com/contactus.htm

The Gustov/Ike legacy is FAR MORE than Houston or Galveston. There are smaller less populated areas stretching from Galveston all the way to Mobile, Alabama which have suffered greatly from storm surge damage from these two storms. Please, there are huge immediate needs NOT being met in many of these areas. As soon as the water ever goes down, there will be a gigantic need for supplies and volunteers all along the Gulf coast.

Where Are the 140,000 People who faced “Certain Death”?

This just in–water is available in Liverpool, 30 miles from Galveston!

I wrote a post Friday night entitled “Epitaph for Those who Chose NOT to Get Out of Ike’s Way”. I thought Saturday that perhaps this was too harsh and the end result might not be as bad as feared. With each passing hour, I fear that my initial impressions were closer to the truth than everyone thought yesterday.

I just read that search and rescue crews have found a total of 2,000 people so far. This is great news except there were supposedly 140,000 who ignored the evacuation order. There is a growing knot in my gut that is telling me that the number of people who may have perished in hurricane Ike may be higher than anyone wants to think. The logical question in all this is very simply; where are these people?

We can safely assume that many of these people are stranded in places impossible to reach due to storm damage. We can safely assume many of these people made it to higher ground just before the storm hit. We can safely assume many people are getting to safety on their own as the waters go down. We can safely assume there were errors in the reported number of people who stayed behind in the first place. This will certainly account for a certain number of the missing. But…

I realize that crews have not been able to get to many areas due to flooding and debris on the road. Many areas are still under many feet of water. The disturbing question comes down to what became of the thousands of people calling 9-1-1 at the beginning of the storm? Of course all phone service went out soon after the storm hit and there was no way to contact anyone afterward.

Most everyone I know, especially those who worked the phones in the grief counseling center set up after Katrina, confirms the actual number of fatalities from Katrina far exceeded the “official” count. No one can offer any good explanation as to why the government refuses to divulge REAL numbers. Do they not know them? Are they afraid of public opinion? Is it bad politics?

I just heard there is a news blackout and helicopters are not allowed to shoot footage of many sites. Once again it appears FEMA is covering up the truth regarding just how bad this storm really was. Why do the authorities not want America to know the truth regarding how many people lose their lives in these powerful hurricanes? Where are the investigative reporters demanding answers?

Here are the facts as far as they have been reported:

*There were assumed (who counted them?) to be 140,000 people in mandatory evacuation areas who defied the order and stayed in their home (or did they?).

*Early in the storm, there were “thousands” of calls to 9-1-1 operators from these people asking for assistance, which of course was not available.

*As of Sunday afternoon, 2,000 of these people have been rescued and I believe the “official” fatality count is around 9 in the whole country.

*Video footage and firsthand accounts verify that all buildings near the coast subjected to the surge are gone. All that is left are the foundations.

*Numerous areas in the mandatory evacuation zones have been or still are under many feet of water. Many of the dwellings which are submerged are single story.

We have a troubling and very difficult problem on our hands. Where did the rest of these people go? The answer, at least in part, is one that no one wants to talk about or acknowledge. It is the ever growing elephant in the closet.

There is absolutely NO DOUBT that hundreds, if not thousands of these missing people were swept to their death with the storm surge. Their bodies will never be found because they were swept out into the Gulf of Mexico. I hate to be the one breaking this news, but it is the truth; just as it was with Katrina.

Hundreds, if not thousands of bodies will be found once the water levels drop and the search teams can get into remote areas. I do not like writing this any more than anyone likes reading it; but the sooner everyone comes to grips with the reality of the situation the sooner the grieving and healing can begin. The one undeniable fact is that stern warnings were given over and over again that anyone who stayed in certain places in certain types of structures faced “certain death”.

Unless somebody comes up with a logical explanation to account for the whereabouts of well over one hundred thousand people, the unfortunate reality is that many of these people perished. This is truly a heart wrenching thought. I pray this morbid post proves to be wrong. I pray there is some other logical explanation for the whereabouts of so many people. Unfortunately, I believe I could pray night and day for months to no avail.

Who Am I and Why Do I Write about Ike and other Hurricanes; My open letter to YOU

Dear Friend,

With grateful heart I rejoice that Hurricane Ike was not worse than it was. A disaster of epic proportions was averted by probably 12 hours and 20 miles. Yes, at the rate Ike was strengthening, if it had another 12 hours over water there is ample evidence to suggest it would have been a category 4 storm instead of a category2/3 one. A wobble to the west would have changed the storm surge to have done far more damage than it did.

I am no scientist. I am no meteorologist. I am no one you ever heard of or ever will. I deliberately work in obscurity and under no circumstances want my true identity used. I believe strongly that what is important is the message and not the messenger. I believe too much emphasis is placed on academia and too little on common sense and logic.

My life is a gift from God for the blessing of His people. Anything and everything I can do or give on behalf of others is my life’s goal and intent. I have no advanced degrees from prestigious institutions of higher learning. I have no doctorate, master or even bachelor’s degrees. I have a worthless Associate degree in theology plus many years of devoted service to God and His people.

I have studied weather since I was a child. I have watched tornadoes form and been in more than one. I have spent hours studying radars and satellite images just to help someone know what to do weather-wise in a situation. I have my trusted sources for technical information, but I basically trust my instinct based on logic, patterns and principle vs. model runs.

I have no business other than to do what my Lord places on my heart to do. I am promoting no one and no cause in particular. I do not sell weather related materials, and in fact, I do not sell anything other than clothing on eBay. I have no agenda, hidden or otherwise. I am a simple man who only desires to find a way to help people gain a better understanding of life, weather, disasters and most of all God.

Many months ago, out of the blue I had a strong premonition that the Houston area was going to deal with a major hurricane this year. There was nothing I could do other than study the area, its history and lay of the land. I wrote a few pieces dealing with how a huge hurricane hitting the Houston ship channel would be a major disaster. Other than that, I have waited patiently for the fulfillment of what I was shown, no doubt by my Lord.

When the flurry of tropical disturbances started a month ago, I decided to start posting on a regular basis regarding them. There is so much ignorance and misunderstanding among people regarding weather and especially hurricanes and tornadoes. When it became apparent that Ike was heading for the Houston area, I saw my mission as one of helping to condense and disseminate the volumes of technical data being stated about the storm, its track and intensity levels.

When it became apparent that Ike was going to be a massive monster storm, I assumed the reason God had pre-warned me was so that I could try and help someone. In my many posts on Ike, I simply was trying to convey the magnitude of the situation in enough time to allow those who could and wanted to leave to do so. Drawing upon my experiences working with Katrina victims, I simply tried to tell you folks what I knew and in such a way as to hopefully help.

Yesterday and last night were very hard for me. My heart so wanted to reach out and comfort those who were huddled in fear and hold those who were breaking under the stress of a very mean storm. I, along with everyone else who studies hurricanes, was sure there would be thousands of casualties from Ike and Galveston pretty much destroyed. The data showed what should happen. As it turns out, it simply showed what COULD happen. Thank God it didn’t happen as bad as was feared.

Now that the storm is over I return to my normal frustrating life of trying to locate help for small independent charities who have no access to the huge warehouses where supplies are stored and no access to AID MATRIX the clearing house for disaster services and groups part of VOAD. My mission is not to find help for a place like Houston, for there are plenty of well supplied groups taking care of both Houston and Galveston.

No, my mission is to find help for places such as Cameron, New Iberia and Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. These are locations which will (and already have after Gustov) fall through the cracks and receive basically no help from anyone. I am sure there are similar places along the upper coast of Texas also. I fight for the underdog in all things. That is my life and ministry.

In the days ahead, as my coverage of hurricane Ike winds down; I will be zeroing in on the needs in those places the media never go. I will share what is REALLY going on in the little communities who are always forsaken in huge disasters. I will offer avenues of giving, sharing and prayer to anyone with a heart to want to help the “underdogs” and the forsaken.

Thank you for allowing me to share a bit of my heart, whether it is one or a hundred of you who read this. All I can do is give the best I can and pray God opens doors to handle the rest. God’s richest blessings to you.

America; Houston has a problem–Ike WILL be far worse than Katrina

This just in–water is available in Liverpool, 30 miles from Galveston!

Do not expect any documentable real news from Ike’s strike until later today or probably tomorrow. As in any disaster, initial reports will be too rosy or too dire. It will take days for the full scope of this disaster to be known. No one has a clue how many people ignored the mandatory evacuation orders, so those involved with search and rescue do not know how many people they are looking for. Estimates of close to 150,000 people in the counties affected make this a daunting task for sure.

Due to the size of Ike, hurricane conditions will continue to buffet the entire area most of today. Do not expect to see anything but the barest of live of coverage from the worst areas. It is simply not safe for anyone to go out until the water recedes and the winds die down. Houston must endure many hours of relentless high tides and winds. No definitive details of its fate will be known today.

High tide in Galveston matched pretty much when Ike came ashore. Only time will tell what has become of the estimated 15,000 people who stayed and refused to leave the island. The honest fear is that from Galveston all the way to the western suburbs of New Orleans when the water recedes what will be found is carnage due to the high numbers of people who failed to leave the areas.

The time has come in America for mandatory evacuations to mean just that. If people refuse to leave, they should either be arrested and hauled to some secure facility or sign a paper acknowledging NO emergency services are available and no lawsuits can be filed. Images of emergency personnel risking their lives to save those who at the very last minute “chickened out” and wanted to escape the storm make me very upset.

What good does a “mandatory evacuation” order mean if 20% of the people ignore it? The entire evacuation process in this country is a joke. Evacuations are ordered when not needed and not ordered when they are. People pick and choose which “mandatory” evacuation orders they want to abide by and then expect to be rescued when they ignore such orders.

For the next few days, just like after a major earthquake, the emphasis is on search and rescue. Those trained in this field are called “first responders” and their mission is to find, treat and rescue anyone still alive after this disaster. Only after those in critical situations are rescued will the search for those who died start in earnest. Only after that will the emphasis switch to helping those NOT in life threatening situations.

This tragedy will far surpass Katrina simply due to the amount of people involved and the size of the area covered. Just as in Katrina’s case, there will be hundreds of thousands of people with no power, no jobs and pretty much no house for weeks if not months. Sure, in a few days look for every spare electric truck in the country to head toward this area to help get the power on. But, along the coast there will be no power and no help for a very long time.

Keep this in mind; there are still thousands of people in Louisiana and Mississippi and Alabama who have never gotten repairs made to their homes after Katrina three years ago. There is simply not enough crews, money and charities around to get to everyone. Now this disaster will be added into the mix. Everyone knows those with the most money will get repairs first, for they can afford to pay cash. Those who must hassle with insurance companies many times go months and years before receiving the funds needed to get roofs fixed and other repairs.

Just as in Katrina and Rita’s cases, there will be thousands of people who had no insurance and who must depend on FEMA or charities to provide assistance. Again, due to the size of this disaster, every governmental and charitable organization in existence will be taxed to the max over the next few months and years.

Make no mistake about it. We will be dealing with various effects of Ike for years. There are NO quick fixes after a major hurricane hit. Everything will go in slow motion for quite some time due to a multitude of issues from contaminated water to broken glass to electric wires down to hundreds of thousands of buildings which must be gutted before the mold makes them uninhabitable to …

As this drama turns the page to what comes next, please continue to pray for those whose lives have been turned upside down and inside out by this storm. Honestly, we will not know much of anything about the scope of this disaster for days. In the meantime I pray America realizes that like it or not; we have Katrina #2 on our hands—only worse.

Ike’s Storm Surge Will be Catastrophic For Many

If this statement from the National Weather Service Office in Galveston, Texas does not get people’s attention, nothing will:

Life threatening inundation likely!

All neighborhoods… and possibly entire coastal communities…
will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide. Persons
not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story
homes will face certain death. Many residences of average
construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread
and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere.
Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads
will be swamped… some may be washed away by the water. Entire
flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may
exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in
multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be
worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property
damage… with massive destruction of homes… including those of
block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to
repair.

Anyone naïve enough to think that Ike is nothing to fear, needs to read the above advisory a few times. The same type of advisory was written by the NWS in New Orleans just before Katrina hit. All came to pass as stated.

Let me state this in no uncertain terms. Ike may or may not turn into a category 4 storm but the storm surge will be as great as Katrina’s was. When looking at sheer size of Ike, it is no wonder that the storm surge is the greatest concern right now. Ike is currently bigger than Katrina ever was and its hurricane and tropical force winds extend further than Katrina’s did when it was a category 5 storm. Storm surge readings today on the Mississippi coast were nearly 5 feet. This is from a storm 250 miles out to sea.

Galveston has been under mandatory evacuation orders since noon. Many areas of Houston need to be. Carla sent a storm surge all the way into Houston in 1961 of nearly 15 feet into Houston. Carla hit 120 miles from the city. Biloxi, Mississippi reported a storm surge of 20 feet and was close to 75 miles from Katrina’s landfall. With reported waves of 50 feet or more in the Gulf, it is no wonder that the overwhelming concern at the moment is the storm surge.

Yes, Ike may yet veer off to the east and spare Galveston and Houston from its worst wrath. Yes, Ike may not intensify into the category 3 or 4 storm feared. Yes, Ike may not be the storm of the century. But, Ike is going to greatly impact someone in or near the Galveston/Houston area. Ike is going to produce storm surge problems for hundreds of miles of the Texas and Louisiana coastline.

Ike has been a difficult storm to forecast and figure out since its inception. Ike has rarely done as he was supposed to do and has baffled forecasters of all degrees of skill time and again. Not even two days ago, everyone was so sure Ike was heading to Brownsville or even Mexico. As we get ever closer to landfall, Ike is slowly but surely inching further and further up the coast and down the coast. Ike is like a lot of guys I have known in life who simply are not going to do as they are told to do.

Part of what should be of utmost concern to people is the inability to accurately get a fix on Ike’s track and intensity. Part of what should deeply concern people is the size of this storm. Other than not having a well defined eye (yet), Ike looks awesome on satellite photos. The amount of space occupied by Ike in the Gulf of Mexico is quite amazing. Perhaps, as I read today, somebody fed steroids to Ike to pump him up. I don’t know about that, but one thing is certain, and that is that Ike is going to set records in some categories and perhaps many.

I was stationed in Mississippi as a minister between 1978 and 1980. I made many trips to the coast during that time, and Biloxi was one of my favorite places to go in the whole state. I spent many an hour sitting on the beach enjoying the warm winds and quietness. I never traveled that road or saw those beaches again until 2006 about 7 months after Katrina hit. I will never forget the utter shock I felt at the power of a 25 foot storm surge.

Everything was gone. The surge took the buildings and threw them who knows where. All that was left was the foundations to the buildings. The storm surge was like a vacuum cleaner lifting all in its path and leaving nothing behind. The storm surge took out two huge bridges and turned communities into ghost towns for nearly two years.

I shudder to think what a 25 foot storm surge would do to Galveston or a 20 foot surge to Houston. When I think back to what I saw along the Mississippi coast; I stay motivated to keep writing these posts for whoever might be reading them. It is impossible to survive a storm surge unless safely in a high rise building. I pity those who have chosen suicide by ignoring the orders to leave Galveston. I pray those with ears to hear have heard the warnings and taken all appropriate action.

Ike Heading for Freeport, TX=A Worse than Carla Scenario for Houston

CONDITION CRITICAL

Those living in the Galveston and Houston area need to get a move on or face dire consequences. Those still mesmerized by the hourly wobbles in computer models and official statements from the NHC better get some guts and start making decisions based on instinct rather than what the latest model run shows. The situation with Ike is far more critical than Rita ever was, yet there is still a complacency in the very area targeted for destruction. Why?

If you turned on the television one day and heard that commercial jet airplanes had been deliberately crashed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York, and a plane had hit the Pentagon in Washington and another had crashed in Pennsylvania—what would be the instinctive reaction? Well, what was the reaction to this news seven years ago this day? The country basically “hunkered down” for a season anticipating another attack any minute. In other words, the situation warranted drastic action due to the uncertainties involved.

I remember schools closing, people leaving work in droves and pretty much the country going into shut down mode as the initial reports of what took place on this date in 2001 filtered in. The authorities everywhere did all that was possible to keep panic from setting in and did all they could to facilitate order and promote a sense of security. No one old enough to recall the events of this date will ever forget the uneasiness that arose from not knowing what was coming next and the helpless feeling of not being able to do a thing to prevent it.

Ike has the capacity to cause more damage and disrupt more things than either the attacks on 9-11 or Hurricane Katrina. IF Ike should become a category 4 or 5 storm and come ashore at or near Freeport, Texas; the worst case scenario would be played out in Galveston and Houston. What appalls me is that here we sit less than 48 hours from landfall and still the general attitude is one of “it will miss us” or “it won’t be that bad”. Years of false alarms have produced an apathetic attitude.

GUSTOV AND RITA

There would be no problem getting people to understand the urgency of this situation if not for the Rita false alarm of three years ago and the recent spectacle of evacuating New Orleans for a minimal storm (for them). Just as most people ignore tornado warnings because the tornado never affects them personally, so more and more people ignore hurricane watches and warnings due to feeling invincible. If the events of 9-11 and Katrina should have taught us anything, it is that we are NOT invincible and catastrophic disasters CAN and DO impact us in this country.

Fools sit back and stake their protection on the mistaken notion that just because nothing happened before, it never will happen. Such foolishness always breeds apathy and complacency toward potential disasters. As someone I know quite well says all the time, “foolishness doesn’t impress me.”

TAKE ACTION NOW OR FACE THE CONSEQUENCES

Unless those in harm’s way act now, there is no way the number of people involved will get out in time. Ike is a huge storm and its effects will be felt LONG BEFORE the eye of the storm makes landfall. Once the winds start rising and the outer bands of rain set in; the panic will soon follow. As hundreds of thousands of vehicles hit the road at the same time, we all know what happens—gridlock.

THE worst case scenario would be to be trapped in your car when a hurricane hits. Any place would be better than a car. Between winds, flooding rain and storm surge; a car is no match for a hurricane. The time to go is now before the ability to move is hindered by volume.

No one who lived through Katrina ever expected to suffer what they did where they lived. No one had ever seen a storm surge go ten or more miles inland. No one had ever seen severe tree and roof damage 125 miles from the coast before. No one had ever seen so many tornadoes and other freaks of nature associated with a major hurricane before. No one anticipated so many problems.

CONCLUSION

Preparation now has come down to either leaving or making sure all is in place to weather the storm. Just having a generator is not enough, is there enough gasoline to keep it going for weeks? Is there enough fresh water to last for up to a week? Is there enough food that does not need an oven to last for a week? Is there medicine and first aid supplies and TOILET PAPER to last for upwards of week or more? Is there CASH money around to get things? Is the cell phone charger in the car to keep it charged if there is no power?

I believe Ike could end up cutting power to as many as 6 or 7 million people for upwards of a month or more in a worst case scenario. I believe the city of Houston could end up being coated with an oily mess just like the areas impacted by Gustov were. I believe there is a distinct possibility the entire area could be basically shut down for weeks just like after Katrina. These things are not just some wild science fiction ideas, they are entirely possible and PROBABLE based on what appears to be happening with Ike.  This could very well end up being the Houston Carla.