Hurricane Kyle (?), Ike Relief and Recovery, Lack of Media Attetion and General Needs

Why the storm buffeting North Carolina with hurricane force winds is not named is a mystery known only to the government agency which is responsible for such things. If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it probably is a duck. It is quite fascinating to have warnings issued for hurricane force winds (for a coastal area) and there not even be a tropical storm.

The next storm, once it finally gets moving will head due north and probably pay Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine a visit. These areas are prone to minor hurricanes, and that is what this storm (Kyle whenever named) will probably be.

The next three weeks should provide some interesting developmental opportunities for new storms. Where these storms form and hit along with their timing is at the moment pure speculation. The point is that meteorologically, the conditions are very similar to when we saw Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike form in rapid fire succession.

The fear among many who look at and study weather is that no matter what might happen, it will be a minor story due to the big “save the economy” news out of Washington. The horrible situation in Texas and Louisiana has already fallen victim to bigger and greater news. Any legitimate threat of an approaching storm would surely suffer the same fate.

The worst time to be struck by a hurricane is the final month of a Presidential campaign that is being hotly contested. Add in the historic events happening with the economy this year and what has happened with post-Ike media coverage will be the norm for future storms.

I was speaking with an associate who continues to help those devastated by Hurricane Katrina the other day. I told this person that if “Katrina #2” did indeed strike the central Gulf Coast this fall, not to expect even 20% of the new coverage, let alone the offers to help that came after Katrina. The will and ability of Americans is just not there to help like they did three years ago.

Isn’t it amazing how those who need help the most receive the least? There are precious few news stories coming out of Ike affected areas, and those that are done are always about Galveston. All the other areas of the coast from Beaumont, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana receive ZERO attention. It is these areas where just like after Katrina and Rita three years ago, hundreds and thousands of people will “fall through the cracks” and be left to fend for themselves.

I feel badly for anyone who lost their home or had it badly damaged by Gustov or Ike. But my heart aches for those who lost their home or had it badly damaged and to this date, no one knows about it. Those who somehow fall through the cracks and receive no aid from FEMA, Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other government or private organization are the people I care most about.

Mainly senior citizens or those with disabilities, the people who fall through the cracks after a hurricane are usually the same ones who fall through the cracks every day of the week. These situations present very difficult cases for those who try and help people on a daily basis. Yet, if someone does not at least try to locate and extend to these people the offer of help; they will suffer the most after a storm.

Yes, many of these folks reject the very idea of help out of pride. They take pride in their independence and look at charity as a sign of weakness. Yet, there comes a time, especially when their home is falling down on top of them, that they finally accept offers of help. These cases many times provide caregivers with the most rewarding success stories.

Americans must remember that in rural areas, especially in southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, there are many times no organized services made available for seniors, those with disabilities and those too poor to afford public services. Many locations have nothing like a “senior center” to provide daily meals or a service to deliver meals to homebound seniors. Many areas have no form of transportation available to get those who are elderly, disabled or poor to doctor’s visits or even to get to the store.

These are interesting times in which we live and are bound to get even more interesting in the coming month to six weeks. God help us all to stay strong, alert and aware of changing situations and needs.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.

Ike Strike Alert; Seven Day Preparation Should Start Now on Gulf Coast

I just looked at the latest “official” five day track for Ike and it looks as bad as it can look for interests on the central Gulf Coast.

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The good news is that we are talking about an event that is almost a full week away with plenty of time for changes in direction and intensity. But, if the current guidance holds, this could end up being an extremely difficult situation either for those just starting to recover from Gustov or those still trying to recover from Katrina or Rita.

There seems to be no way at the moment that Ike can do more than brush Florida, except for the Keys. This seems to eliminate the “worst case scenario” of a hurricane Andrew type of hit on Miami and then a Katrina hit to New Orleans. At least for the present, Miami is not involved with this hurricane.

At this point, many days out, the wise and prudent person should be engaged in long range preparation for a storm. Making sure prescriptions are current, filling gasoline cans and buying extra food and water before the crunch of humanity later, are simple and wise things to do this far out. The next round of preparation comes at about three days out or on Monday or Tuesday. The final round comes with either an evacuation or the decision to stay and endure whatever comes.

In 1992, hurricane Andrew surprised most people with its degree of intensity. When in roared ashore it was actually one of only three category 5 hurricanes to hit the United States. People living far from the coast who had decided to stay never gave any thought to how bad things could get since there had not been a major hurricane in south Florida for many years. I believe most of us old enough to remember the images on television after Andrew hit were struck by the amount of damage done to homes in sub-divisions far removed from the actual coastline and the amazing lack of fatalities.

Hurricane Andrew still ranks as the third most intense hurricane to hit the United States. Only the unnamed storm of 1935 which hit the Florida Keys and hurricane Camile which hit the same area as Katrina in 1969 were more intense. Most of those who endured Andrew wished they hadn’t, but there was no way of knowing how strong Andrew was going to get so quickly. Camile hit before the current methods of forecasting hurricanes were in place. The results were catastrophic for those who stayed.

As aggravating as even thinking about evacuating is, it sure beats the alternative. During the time I was acting as an advocate for Katrina victims, the reoccurring reason for the problems stemmed from the lack of preparation for the storm. Most people chose to “ride out” the storm based on projections of where the storm was going to hit. Most people who found themselves dead, injured or in a life threatening situation simply believed the dire warnings were just another false alarm.

When the storm surge went miles inland, homes never before touched by a hurricane were swamped and those still in them were forced to wade in the contaminated waters that swamped them. Shortly after the storm, word was put out that anyone in contact with the water had to get a set of shots or face dire consequences to their skin. Most got the shots and were fine, some didn’t and lost limbs or died because of it.

Whether wind, storm surge, flooding or a combination of all of the above; a strong to major hurricane has the ability to ruin a person’s home. It is totally beyond my comprehension why anyone would tempt fate and decide to “ride out” a major hurricane. Do you realize that areas over 100 miles INLAND from Katrina were hit with enough wind to topple huge trees on homes, knock out power for weeks and make driving impossible due to debris and power lines on the road?

Do you realize that after a storm the magnitude of Katrina, the National Guard, the United States military and FEMA have full control over the disaster area and no one is allowed in until they say so. It is not like you or I could run a truck full of supplies to a relative or friend. There are roadblocks and orders to stop anyone attempting to enter at any cost. No sane person would attempt to get through the perimeter set up and guarded by the authorities.

People who choose to stay when mandatory evacuation orders are given must understand they are on their own. No emergency vehicle will come save them when the storm hits. No wrongful death lawsuits after the storm will ever hold up in court. When a person ignores a mandatory evacuation order, he forfeits all rights to help or compensation for the lack of it. Only a true fool ignores such an order and deserves anything that happens because of it.

Please, while there is still ample time before any possible Ike strike, take stock of your situation and take action to be prepared. Nothing drastic needs to be done now, only common sense things like making sure you have enough prescription drugs to last awhile or a few cases of drinking water stashed in the garage. A wise person doesn’t wait until the disaster is on top of them to prepare; he does what he can long before when there is no rush and no panic.

I promise to keep up with this situation and post follow ups as needed. For now, just be aware that an IKE STRIKE is on the horizon, but it is far too soon to know for sure where. The Greek word “nike” means victory, so let us pray for “nike over Ike”.

Hanna and Ike; Condition Critical for Carolina’s and Northeast

As usual, there is massive disagreement among the hurricane experts concerning what will happen with Hanna and Ike. Few hurricanes have taken the kind of beating Hanna has taken and live to tell about it. Hanna has, as the old “Timex” commercial said; taken a licking and keeps on ticking.

I agree with most forecasters that there is no basis to believe Hanna is finished. To the contrary, as conditions improve for development today and tonight, the storm should gradually regain hurricane status and start moving north, FAR EAST of Florida. Most top experts are now moving Hanna’s landfall a little further east toward the Wilmington, North Carolina area.

Very few storms could endure the kind of wind shear Hanna dealt with yesterday without totally falling apart. Although weakened, Hanna has “hung in there” and is now ready to tap into nearly perfect conditions for development. I am sorry to be redundant, but it is vitally important for those living anywhere between Charleston, South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina to not take this storm lightly.

Far too much emphasis is placed on the wind speeds of hurricanes. Tropical Storm Fay recently showed that just as much damage can be done by a very slow moving and wet tropical storm as a fast moving category 1 or weak category 2 hurricane. People tend to forget that when an area is inundated with 15 to 20 inches of rain, not only does the area flood, but the ground gets so saturated huge trees topple with only 50 mph winds. Just ask former President Carter about this, for Fay caused a huge tree to fall on his Georgia home.

There are two major concerns this morning. First is the looming possibility that Hanna will make landfall as a strengthening hurricane as opposed to a dying one. Gustov hit as a weakening hurricane as did that last great Carolina hurricane Floyd. Andrew hit southern Florida years ago as a strengthening hurricane of probable category 5 strength. Charley hit the west coast of Florida as a rapidly strengthening storm. In both cases the damage was greatly magnified by the fact the storm was gaining strength as it hit land.

The second concern is that if Hanna is still gaining strength and hits farther east in North Carolina, she may end up retaining hurricane status into Virginia and become one of the East Coast Hurricanes which pose grave danger to the major population centers from Washington to Boston. Many have spoken and written of the potential catastrophic damage which could occur if a major hurricane struck either the Chesapeake Bay area or New York.

It has been a number of years since there were a true major hurricane strike these areas. Again, the concern should not just be wind; storm surge and flooding rains would be the much bigger headache. Some of the worst flooding events in history in states such as Pennsylvania and New York have come from just the remnants of huge hurricanes which hit the Gulf Coast or Mid Atlantic coastline and then lingered over the Northeast.

The remnants of Gustov are inundating Arkansas right now with what will surely be major flooding. Even up here is St. Louis where I live there are flood warnings in effect for the next three days as the heavy rain associated with what is left of a once great hurricane slowly move over the region. Flooding actually causes as much or more damage than wind except in a comparatively small area near where a hurricane hits.

The threat from Hanna is that it could hit as an intensifying category 3 hurricane and inflict major damage along the coastline. Equally great is the threat for massive flooding not only in the Carolina’s but Virginia and points north and east. There is also the threat Hanna could get back over the ocean and redevelop again into a hurricane which would impact New York and New England.

Ike is presenting forecasters with nothing but headaches. There seems to be no universal conscientious among the models or forecasters as to where Ike will go once it gets to the Bahamas. There appears to be equal probability of it going into the Gulf of Mexico (watch out New Orleans), Florida (watch out Miami and points north) or along the Hanna’s path (watch out Carolina’s and points north).

Obviously two of these scenarios would be horrible. If another major hurricane churned toward New Orleans next week, the entire scene would be horrific based on what just happened with Gustov. Worse yet would be back to back hits by Hanna and Ike in North Carolina and Virginia. Again, in this scenario, the problem is massive and catastrophic flooding of huge areas inundated by incredible amounts of rain falling within a week’s period of time.

It goes without saying that starting Friday night or Saturday morning when Hanna strikes through next week when Ike strikes somewhere; there is going to be multitudes of hurting, scared and frustrated people in the United States. Those who end up being directly impacted by these storms could care less about politics, sports and the stock market. Those whose lives are turned upside down by hurricane force winds or flooding rains are only interested in survival.

Please keep the millions of who will be facing extremely difficult times the next two weeks in your prayers. Also, please keep the poor people of Haiti in your prayers. Hanna has dumped copious amounts of rain on a country already drenched by Gustov. The humanitarian crisis in that country is beyond description. Thank you for reading and I will write more as the situation evolves today and tomorrow.

Gustov, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle-The Hurricane Parade has Only Just Begun

With each passing day, the tropical situation becomes more intense. Just as one major hurricane starts the process of unwinding, others form and still others lie in wait. This year it seems all the ingredients needed for a very active hurricane season have fallen into place for the first time in three years.

Word from my sources down on the Mississippi coast is that although not as bad as Katrina, by a long shot, Gustov’s storm surge surpassed expectations and has brought unexpected flooding to the same places devastated by Katrina. It has been reported that as many as 100 homes have been flooded in Pearlington, which was ground zero for Katrina. Reports of the storm surge taking out numerous “Katrina cottages” have filtered in from Long Beach and other sections of Hancock County.

I am sure there will end up being major damage to various locations in Louisiana. There is simply no way a storm of the magnitude of Gustov could hit without causing major storm surge flooding and quite a bit of wind damage. As crews are able to get out with the light of day and survey the scene, I am sure pockets of extreme destruction will be found, especially in areas near the coast.

There have been numerous possible explanations given as to why Gustov did not re-strengthen after passing over Cuba. I am sure the real reason is among them, or a combination of many factors. Forecasting hurricanes is so much better than it used to be, but there are still countless unanswered questions as to the mechanics of storms when exposed to different elements such as wind shear, dry air, cold water and other tropical storms in the vicinity.

As bad as Gustov ends up being, it could have been 100 times worse if the storm had regained category 4 status and/or wobbled just 50 miles to the east. Whether the New Orleans levees will hold up through the remainder of this season plus two more until their planned completion is anyone’s guess. They held this time, but barely. A slightly stronger storm 50 miles to the east would have totally changed the storm surge dynamics and the wind field.

Hanna is a study in perseverance. The vast majority of storms confronted by the adverse conditions attacking it would have dissolved long ago. Instead, for reasons not entirely clear to the scientists, the storm is not only “hanging in there” but continues to strengthen. Tossing aside what it does or does not do the next day or so; the prevailing conscientious is that Hanna will emerge from the Bahamas on Wednesday and explode somewhat like Gustov just did.

The vast majority of models take Hanna north to somewhere between Georgia and North Carolina with Charleston and Myrtle Beach in the crosshairs. Just how strong Hanna becomes is subject to quite a bit of discussion right now, but there is a very real chance it could become at least as strong as Gustov if not far stronger. By Friday or Saturday somebody is going to be dealing with a major hurricane in either South or North Carolina.

Ike continues to intensify rather quickly and is heading due west into the southern Bahamas and just north of Puerto Rico. The long term guidance for Ike is not clear at the moment. Much will depend on what Hanna does and when she does it. Ike could literally follow in Hanna’s wake or could keep heading west into the Gulf of Mexico. Either way, Ike is showing signs of being a major hurricane.

Hurricane Josephine will form today out of depression number ten. Behind Josephine, a new area of disturbed weather just formed which will likely be Kyle. It is incredible to see so many major storms alive at once in the Atlantic basin. It is also cause for extreme caution and vigilance on the part of everyone living near the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. The relentless parade of hurricanes will test everyone’s patience and place incredible stress on all levels of emergency management.

Of increasing concern is the ability of FEMA to be two or even three places at once. Much has been made of FEMA’s presence in Louisiana and now it is almost certain they will be needed in either South or North Carolina by the weekend. Depending on where Ike decides to visit, that would be three huge areas impacted at the same time. Let us hope things go better than three years ago when those affected by hurricanes Rita and Wilma saw very little help due to Katrina.

I will keep scouring the sources in my attempt to put together these updates as long as the need is there. Having a long standing interest in meteorology as well as hands on experience with Katrina relief and recovery; I feel qualified enough to speak with at least some degree of confidence on both the meteorological as well as “on the ground” aspects of these storms. Thank you reading.