The Name Game; Laura is wasted so what do Marco, Nana and Omar Hold in store?

The only way to have continuity is to have a standard which is not changed by the whims of agenda driven people. I honestly do not know which is worse, the failure to name the storm which came into the Carolina’s late last week or the naming of the ridiculous area of disturbed weather in the middle of nowhere today. Both decisions on the part of the NHC make a person question what standards they are using as criteria for naming storms.

At any rate, the name “Laura” has now been wasted on a subtropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean which might impact Iceland. Kyle must have forgotten his passport, for he never came close to the United States. The past week has not been a very good one for those who follow, forecast, track and name tropical systems. In all three cases, mistakes were made and the end result is that none of the three storms caused any great amount of hardship for anyone.

Our eyes must now turn to what lies ahead. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico must keep an eye on an area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan. Whether it develops into a named system or not, it promises to bring much rain to Florida this week. Not a good omen for the baseball crazed fans in Tampa.

The system marching across the Atlantic is one which stands a good chance of developing. There are other areas of disturbed weather exiting Africa which could end up turning into one of those long track hurricanes which can take a week or more to get close to our part of the world. At this time of the year, the Caribbean must be closely monitored for developing systems.

Most of the experts are thinking that there should be at least three more named storms. Whether Marco, Nana and Omar end up turning into Ike type storms or harmless ones like Laura cannot be determined at this time. Whether any upcoming storms will afflict the Gulf Coast, Florida or the East Coast is not available to know at this time. All we can do is look at the overall pattern and deduce that it is conducive to the development of tropical storms.

This year has been very active in one sense (twelve named storms), but very strange in others. Although hurricanes Dolly, Gustov and Ike did inflict major damage to Texas and Louisiana; tropical storm Fay may have actually effected more people though its relentless rain in Florida. Although the Carolina’s have been hit with two tropical storms this year, the recent no-name storm perhaps was more intense in some ways than either named storm.

What is important to understand is that October is still hurricane season. Some of the more impressive October hurricanes which stayed south of the United States were Mitch in 1998 which raked Honduras with torrential rains for days, Iris in 2001 which was a major category 4 hurricane that hit Belize and Keith in 2000 which struck Mexico twice.

The top three October hurricanes to hit the United States were Hazel in 1954 which was a huge category 4 hurricane which struck the South/North Carolina border October 15 of that year, Opal in 1993 which struck Pensacola, Florida as a major category 3 hurricane on October 4, and of course Wilma in 2005 which crashed into southwest Florida on October 24^th of that infamous year.

Even though September is historically the most active month for hurricanes, October is roughly equivalent to August as far as potential for development. Due to seasonal cooling, the deeper into October we get, the more the threat shifts further south. All interests along the Gulf Coast, Florida and as far north as North Carolina must stay vigilant the next few weeks. Only after the middle of the month can this season start to be put in the archives.

Edouard; Prepare for the Worst and Keep Praying for the Best

The developing situation along the Gulf coast bears witness to the fact that anyone living near the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico must stay ever vigilant. Only last year we had the situation with Hurricane Humberto developing quickly into a small but potent storm and now we have Edouard seemingly coming out of nowhere to pose problems for not only the coastal areas but offshore oil drilling platforms.

No one expects Edouard to become much more than a strong tropical storm, but some computer models are expecting it to strengthen to a hurricane before coming ashore near Houston. The problem with this whole scenario is that only three days ago, no one expected there to even be a tropical depression, let alone a storm.

The question that begs to be answered is how with all the computers and all the forecasting tools available to meteorologists does a storm form so close to the shore of the United States without warning? The answer is that there are private companies which were speaking of the possibility of a storm days ago. It was only the official government agency which did not.

The formation of these storms so close to land and their rapid intensification is new phenomena. For too long, the standard forecasting tools did not take into account the ability of storms to form and ramp up as quickly as they are now doing. Until the “official” tools catch up with the reality of what is happening, these “surprise” storms will keep popping up.

What if sometime down the road one of these storms springs to life within 24 hours and stalls. While hovering offshore it strengthens and keeps growing. What if one of these little storms suddenly turns into a storm like Wilma in 2005 or Charley in 2004 and explodes as it reaches shore. What if one of these storms does this right over Houston or New Orleans?

If the people have ho advance warning than there is no safe way to evacuate them from harm’s way. If there is not at least 36 hours or more to prepare for a hurricane, the result will be confusion, pandemonium and a disaster almost as bad as the actual storm. Hurricane Dolly last month proved that a little storm can cause much damage if aimed at the right spot.

Even if Edouard only ends up bringing much needed rain to Texas and little else; it needs to be viewed as a wakeup call to those who live and have business interests along the Gulf Coast as well as the Atlantic coast. Preparation is the key to survival as well as minimizing the impact of such storms. Since the forecasting agencies are somewhat playing “catch up” with these kinds of storms, it places an even greater degree of urgency that preparations for storms are in place even when no storm is there.

Anyone living within 100 miles of the Gulf Coast or Atlantic Ocean should have a plan in place for what to do if a storm pays a surprise visit. If planning to stay put, then provisions MUST be in place well in advance of a storm, for once it is upon you, there is no way to find food, fuel, wood, etc. It is one thing to have days of advance warning of an impending storm; it is quite another to have 24 hours or less.

In our “get it done at the last minute” society, it is very hard to slow down long enough to think through what is needed and what to do if one of these surprise storms forms near you. But, it is no longer something that is optional, the time needs to be made to make plans and get provisions in place NOW. Even if not needed this year, then at least the worry is gone for next year’s hurricane season.

Think about the worst case scenario even with Edouard; it suddenly strengthens today off the coast of Louisiana and stalls long enough to become a strong category 3 hurricane and then takes aim on Houston. It was absolute mayhem three years ago when Houston had days of advance warning for Rita. What if there were only hours of advance warning instead of days? That is why plans and provisions must be made in advance. I strongly urge anyone reading this to “prepare for the worst and keep praying for the best”, not only with the current storm, but in all matters of natural disasters.