What should have been Kyle hits Carolinas while the real Kyle heads for Rhode Island

In reading the pros and cons of why the storm lashing the Carolina’s at this time was never named, there is one thing for certain. The days of putting total trust in those at the National Hurricane Center are over. Whatever their agenda is, they are not running their organization in such a way to provide unbiased and helpful information to the American public.

There is a deep and simmering battle taking place between the government wanting to take over the meteorological community, the same way they are taking over Wall Street, vs. the independent agencies and forecasters who make a living providing their data to clients. Since the government only wants to promote the global warming agenda, they are making a concentrated effort to discredit private forecasters who refuse to promote the “official” line out of business.

I have to admit that there appears to be no rational reason for not naming the system which came ashore near Myrtle Beach last night. Its pressure readings were lower than the newly named Kyle out in the Atlantic. It had true tropical storm force winds and was probably stronger than Hanna was. It is a mystery known only to those in Miami as to why this storm was not named Kyle.

Once this unnamed system moves far enough inland to cease influencing Kyle (which should be Laura), there should be rapid development. Kyle is forecasted to miss the United States and hit Nova Scotia. Many private forecasters do not believe this. They still put Kyle on a track which would bring it ashore near Providence, Rhode Island. Once again, as has happened over and over again, where are the advance notices to those who may be in harm’s way as early as Saturday night?

If the “official” track of the storm carries it far out to sea and 500 miles away from the coast, why should anyone be concerned? Just as in the current situation, if there is no named storm, no one pays any attention to the bulletins which warned people in both South and North Carolina to expect hurricane force winds. Since there was no named storm, most people either ignored such warnings or never heard about them.

As a spectator on the sidelines, I do not know what is driving this intense competition between the private sector meteorologists and the government funded National Hurricane Center. All I know is that it is turning into an ugly battle and is turning personal quickly. Since the NHC has the “final word” they win in the end, but what good does it do them if they are proven to be either fools or frauds?

No one is telling us the truth in Washington, so why should be expect anyone in Miami to tell us the truth about hurricanes? Everything is all about politics, agenda and promoting causes which hold no validity when it comes to anything associated with the government. The wise person looking for honest answers better get used to looking in places outside of official government statements.

I am a highly cynical person and I generally do not believe much of anything I hear anyone officially speaking on behalf of the government has to say. I must admit that I allowed myself to become too closely attached to the “official” bulletins issued about Hurricane Ike. As it turned out, I think there was much that was not right concerning that storm, both before it hit and after. But that is a topic for another day.

Hanna could still explode; Ike waiting in the wings

My heart was deeply moved by some pictures someone alerted me to via a comment on one of these hurricane blog posts. Please take a moment and look at the damage hurricane/tropical storm Hanna did to the second biggest city in Haiti.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ifrc/

I know that the stripped hills and other factors make flooding occur more often and worse in Haiti than any other country in the Western Hemisphere. But, the facts are these:

1. A tropical storm when parked over a given area long enough, will produce enough rain to flood just about any location regardless of the terrain.

2. Hurricane winds are a huge part of the problems brought about by tropical storms, but wind is not the ONLY problem. Water from rain and storm surges cause as much damage as wind during many storms.

3. If the countryside has been stripped of trees and other vegetation, flooding rains will be magnified and the damage far more catastrophic than in areas where the natural vegetation is still there.

There are two types of tropical storms or minor hurricanes which can inflict major damage upon a community, county or state. First is the slow moving “wet” storms such as tropical storm Fay was last month. Fay never produced any winds which caused any damage to speak of. Yet, tropical storm Fay caused millions upon millions of dollars of damage through flooding rains which would not quit. When it rains heavily for 36 or more hours straight; there is going to be major flooding in flat areas especially.

The second “bad” storm is the one which is rapidly intensifying as it comes ashore. These storms produce much more wind damage than a slow moving or diminishing hurricane would. The classic example of this was hurricane Andrew. When it came ashore, it was going through an intensification process every bit as impressive as hurricane Ike did two days ago. No one would ever want to be near a hurricane going from tropical storm strength to category 4 in a matter of hours.

The concern with storms such as Hanna are that they are huge and that this storm will go from having “sat” in the Bahamas for days to off the New England coast in a matter of less than two days. When a storm takes off like a rocket, it rarely has time to intensify past a category 1 but its speed does tend to amplify the winds and cause more damage than a slow moving storm.

Hanna is not to be dismissed as just a bad Nor’easter. Hanna will retain the potential to become a strong category 1 or higher storm all the way until it reaches land. Last year, Humberto set a record for being the fastest storm to ever become a hurricane. It went from an area of disturbed weather south of Houston to a very strong category 1 hurricane that slammed into far southeast Texas in a matter of hours. NEVER should a tropical system be dismissed as harmless. If it is named, it needs to be watched closely.

Hanna may go down as a very minor hurricane but we do not know. In 2006, Ernesto was the only the hurricane of consequence to affect the United States due to a sudden El Nino in the Pacific. Ernesto COULD have been a huge monster storm causing untold damage if it had not lingered over Florida. If it would have had more time over the warm Gulf Stream waters, it would have exploded and come ashore as a much stronger hurricane than it did.

Because Ernesto was so lightly thought of at the time, my brother and sister-in-law went ahead and took their yearly vacation to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina RIGHT AS ERNESTO CAME ASHORE. They lived to tell about their ordeal, but they should have never been allowed to be where they were. Why the road were not closed off to traffic going to the beach is a mystery known only to those involved. If Ernesto would have slowed down and lingered by even another hour, I fear that my wife would have lost her sister that fateful day.

The best guess with Hanna is that it will produce a lot of rain and wind from the coast of North Carolina all the way up I-95 to Boston. It may not cause much damage, but it sure did in Haiti. Once Hanna makes her move then Ike can decide whether to go west into the Gulf of Mexico to harass New Orleans or move up the Florida coast to finish what Hanna started. As powerful as Ike is now, he will weaken in the days ahead. How much he strengthens again is only conjecture at the moment. The experts do expect Ike to be a major hurricane affecting someone by this time next week. Let us all pray it is not Haiti.

This year’s “GHI” hurricanes will, if nothing else will go down in history as providing hours of hair pulling stress for hurricane forecasters. In fact, if Fay if included, then the “FGHI” hurricanes most definitely will live as a testimony to the good, the getting better and the still horrible art of hurricane forecasting. Despite the great strides made the past few years in being able to determine the strength and track of storms, there is still no way to absolutely say 4 or 5 days in advance where a storm is going and how strong it will be. At least we will not have another storm “sneak up” on us like in Galveston a hundred years ago.

The Good–Gustov; The Bad–Hanna; The Ugly–???

Even before Gustov officially makes landfall it is obvious the storm is NOT going to be Katrina number two. It could have been and if not for the cooler water, wind shear and dry air making its way into the system it could have been a very bad hurricane. As it turns out, Gustov will greatly impact some, especially in southern Louisiana, but will not produce the catastrophic flooding once feared.

So, does this make all the various government agencies and officials who prompted two million people to evacuate wrong? I believe only a fool would think so. Gustov provided everyone from the mayor of New Orleans to FEMA the opportunity to show the nation how much has improved in the realm of emergency management since the dark days of Katrina.

The powers that be really had no choice, politically or humanitarian wise, but to order the evacuation of New Orleans and surrounding areas. Just two days ago as Gustov wiped western Cuba off the map and appeared headed for the warm water loop north of Cuba, all models were forecasting a rapid intensification to a category 4 or even 5 storm. In light of the available information, there was no other course of action which could be taken than to order total evacuation of a city that sits many feet below sea level.

Whether through prayers or the intricate variety of factors which make or break a hurricane; Gustov never ramped up and in fact lost much of his strength after crossing Cuba. Many experts think this was because of cooler waters left over in the Gulf after Fay. Others think it was because of a combination of factors. I will let these experts figure out the reasons why later, but for now we should all be thankful that we are not going to be dealing with Katrina two later today and in the days/weeks/months/years to come.

As good as the news may end up being regarding Gustov, the news regarding Hanna is not so good. While everyone has been glued to the developing saga in the Gulf, Hanna has been enduring everything that would normally kill a tropical storm as she sits near the Bahamas. Hanna will shortly make her move north and once tapped into the Gulf Stream, watch out.

Current forecast tracks take Hanna into Georgia or South Carolina as a category 1 storm. Independent forecasters are quite sure Hanna will become every bit as strong as Gustov is and end up in the Myrtle Beach area of South Carolina or little further north. With a potential landfall of Friday, this gives all parties a few days to prepare, and the wise people would do just that.

What appears to be taking shape is a hit late in the week from Hanna and then a week later from what should become Ike. Both storms are taking aim at the Carolinas. There might be one more storm in this burst of activity, but that is debatable. The experts are saying we could see a lull for three weeks before a final burst in tropical activity in October. I am quite sure that for many, that is the last thing they will want to think about.

In conclusion, I pray the response to an incoming storm that has been manifested with Gustov will be just as strong for Hanna and any storms after her. I pray that the massive array of support in place for Gustov was not strictly political, but shows the commitment by FEMA and other governmental agencies to protect our country from natural enemies just as they do from human ones. When you think about it; isn’t an enemy an enemy, regardless of how it looks or the weapons it possesses?

If all the resources of the United States military are available to help in a disaster, there is no reason to believe there will ever be a fiasco such as Katrina again. But, if such resources are withheld or spread too thin, then the burden falls again on the private sector to prepare people and help them as first responders. In all but the worst disasters the military should not be involved, but if there is a chance we could see anything like Katrina, then I see no harm in enlisting the very best resources available to help, protect and serve the citizens of this country.