Gustov and Ike victims have been totally forgotten and neglected

Some have told me to “let it go”. Others have told me “it’s a lost cause”. Still others have accused me of being “crazy” and through it all, NO ONE has told me “keep it up”. What is this all about?

One month ago today a major hurricane hit the Louisiana coast near Grand Isle. Hurricane Gustov continued inland and hurricane force winds battered places as far away as Baton Rouge relentlessly. Meanwhile, down the road in New Orleans all the reporters from all the major news outlets were focused on watching a few waves overtop a few levees. With every ounce of their being they were hoping to see the levees break and their cameras provide live footage of the greatest flood of all time.

All the willing of all the media could not force the levees to break. After a day of anticipation, they were bitterly disappointed that there was no huge story coming out of New Orleans. With heavy heart they trudged to either St. Paul to cover the Republican convention they never wanted to attend, or to South Carolina on the off chance Tropical Storm Hanna might turn into a real newsworthy storm.

While Hanna was huffing and puffing and not really doing much of anything, Hurricane Ike was ripping the Bahamas and then Cuba apart like an angry monster let loose on the city. Of course no reporters are allowed in Cuba and no one in their right mind would have stayed in the Bahamas. Thus, the real story of Ike was neglected, just as the real story of Gustov.

For days, the headlines regarding Ike were directed towards Florida. Where and how this became the focus of attention is baffling. Ike was never headed that way. Still, whenever the folks on Key West are told to evacuate, that becomes the almighty big story of any storm. Why do people live there anyway?

Consider these facts. In the twelve days between Hurricane Gustov and Hurricane Ike, there was basically NO media coverage of Gustov’s damage except in the immediate New Orleans/Baton Rouge areas. Even the television outlets in coastal Mississippi did not cover the story. There were far bigger fish to fry than spending resources on covering a little ole storm that hit a section of Louisiana no one in the United States knows or cares about.

FEMA, the Red Cross, Salvation Army and a few other charities were on the scene providing a little help; but the response after Gustov was minimal and a disgrace to the heart of disaster relief in this country. If we are going to selectively pick and choose who receives aid, media coverage and prayers; our country has slid down the slope to extinction.

As Ike grew into the sprawling monster he became, of course every news outlet rushed crews to Galveston and Houston in anticipation of a huge story. Dreams of Katrina like footage flooded the minds of reporters looking for the story that would catapult them to the “big time”. As dire warnings were issued for those refusing to evacuate circulated, the army of reporters spread out to find safe areas to weather the storm at, yet be close enough to provide graphic shots of the impending carnage.

Images of reporters being swept off their feet in the rising storm surge made the rounds on the internet along with pictures of fools hanging sideways on light poles as the rising winds came ashore. Stupid interviews with people bragging about not evacuating but staying in their beachfront houses drinking beer and partying were still filling television screens the afternoon before the storm hit.

When the media went to bed that Friday night Ike came ashore, they were like children on Christmas Eve. Surely the next morning would provide days of coverage of a totally wiped out Galveston and a severely crippled Houston. Awards and high ratings danced through their heads as they endured a night of wind and storms.

But, alas, once again the weather gods did not cooperate. With bitter disappointment these loyal foot soldiers of the media giants went out to battle on Saturday only to find huge sections of Galveston still standing and worse yet, Houston was barely touched. With clenched fists they cursed the weather gods for not sending the 20 foot storm surge that would have leveled Galveston and crippled the oil and gas industries in Houston for years. Instead, all they got was a little category 2 hurricane with a storm surge that only destroyed places too far to film and that no one cared about.

As a result of Ike not killing 100,000 people, totally destroying the city of Galveston or flooding half of Houston; the media stayed long enough to give a few reports for a few days and then started the mass exodus to find the next big story that America craved to see. Within a week to ten days after Ike, most of the national media were long gone and by two weeks after the storm, there were no longer ANY stories about Ike, Galveston, Houston, the Texas coast or Louisiana.

What have we come to in this country? Do we simply cast off those who suffer the loss of their homes, jobs and families simply because the carnage was not great enough to warrant continued coverage? The media stayed in New Orleans and to a lesser degree the Mississippi coast for months after Katrina. Through their constant coverage of the devastation came the impetus for America to give of their goods, money and time to help those in need.

Since the media has chosen to forsake those affected by Gustov and Ike, there is but a trickle of help heading their way. The response by America to these hurricanes has been tepid at best and non-existent most of the time. America has quickly forgotten about Ike because of the soap opera playing out in Washington over the “bail out”. While debate continues on giving 700 billion to bail out banks, an obscure bill was passed giving a few billion dollars to help those affected by Gustov and Ike.

I know times are tough and everyone is uptight about money, but that does not give an excuse to forget about those who have lost everything and are only starting on the long journey to normalcy. Even the incredible story out of Atlanta regarding gasoline shortages has only in the past two days made the headlines (near the bottom). Either America does not care anymore about helping her fellow citizens in time of need or they do not know what the need is due to the arrogance and ratings driven media who have shirked their duty by failing to cover Gustov and stick with the Ike stories. Shame on you.

What should have been Kyle hits Carolinas while the real Kyle heads for Rhode Island

In reading the pros and cons of why the storm lashing the Carolina’s at this time was never named, there is one thing for certain. The days of putting total trust in those at the National Hurricane Center are over. Whatever their agenda is, they are not running their organization in such a way to provide unbiased and helpful information to the American public.

There is a deep and simmering battle taking place between the government wanting to take over the meteorological community, the same way they are taking over Wall Street, vs. the independent agencies and forecasters who make a living providing their data to clients. Since the government only wants to promote the global warming agenda, they are making a concentrated effort to discredit private forecasters who refuse to promote the “official” line out of business.

I have to admit that there appears to be no rational reason for not naming the system which came ashore near Myrtle Beach last night. Its pressure readings were lower than the newly named Kyle out in the Atlantic. It had true tropical storm force winds and was probably stronger than Hanna was. It is a mystery known only to those in Miami as to why this storm was not named Kyle.

Once this unnamed system moves far enough inland to cease influencing Kyle (which should be Laura), there should be rapid development. Kyle is forecasted to miss the United States and hit Nova Scotia. Many private forecasters do not believe this. They still put Kyle on a track which would bring it ashore near Providence, Rhode Island. Once again, as has happened over and over again, where are the advance notices to those who may be in harm’s way as early as Saturday night?

If the “official” track of the storm carries it far out to sea and 500 miles away from the coast, why should anyone be concerned? Just as in the current situation, if there is no named storm, no one pays any attention to the bulletins which warned people in both South and North Carolina to expect hurricane force winds. Since there was no named storm, most people either ignored such warnings or never heard about them.

As a spectator on the sidelines, I do not know what is driving this intense competition between the private sector meteorologists and the government funded National Hurricane Center. All I know is that it is turning into an ugly battle and is turning personal quickly. Since the NHC has the “final word” they win in the end, but what good does it do them if they are proven to be either fools or frauds?

No one is telling us the truth in Washington, so why should be expect anyone in Miami to tell us the truth about hurricanes? Everything is all about politics, agenda and promoting causes which hold no validity when it comes to anything associated with the government. The wise person looking for honest answers better get used to looking in places outside of official government statements.

I am a highly cynical person and I generally do not believe much of anything I hear anyone officially speaking on behalf of the government has to say. I must admit that I allowed myself to become too closely attached to the “official” bulletins issued about Hurricane Ike. As it turned out, I think there was much that was not right concerning that storm, both before it hit and after. But that is a topic for another day.

Definite Hurricane Threat for East Coast next Ten Days

The hurricane forecasters are going through all sorts of contortions due to the confluence of meteorological factors along the East Coast this week. On one hand, everyone agrees there should be a very strong non-tropical low pressure area form just off the Carolina coast by as early as Wednesday evening. This low would cause near tropical storm strength winds to buffet North Carolina’s coast.

At the same time, what should become Kyle continues to hammer Puerto Rico with relentless rain. Reports of 15 inch rain totals so far are bound to make for flooding on the island. The storm is slowing heading toward the Dominican Republic where flooding rains are expected later today. This system is expected to turn to the north and then the models start going crazy due to possible scenarios.

A couple of the more troubling scenarios are that this storm could quickly become at least a category 2 hurricane and head for either Delaware Bay or Providence, Rhode Island. Much has been written and speculated upon with both of these ideas; and none of it is good. A strong hurricane hitting to the west of the Delaware Bay would be devastating to not only Philadelphia but to the entire Delaware River valley.

Those who study worst case scenarios come up with certain criteria which if met, would enable a given storm to produce the worst possible damage. Philadelphia, much like Houston, would most be impacted by a storm surge pushing up Delaware Bay from a big storm pushing its surge up the bay. Remember this was the scenario most feared with Ike and Houston. Thankfully for Houston’s sake, Ike did not perfectly match all the criteria needed for the perfect storm.

A big wet hurricane with a decent storm surge hitting at the mouth of Delaware Bay and moving north would bring huge flooding problems to Philadelphia. The argument by those who doubt this would ever happen revolve around history not showing many hurricanes able to follow the perfect path needed to produce a storm surge in Delaware Bay. This is a fair argument, but no one can say that the possibility does not exist.

It would be far more difficult for a hurricane to manage to hit New York at the correct angle to produce any kind of storm surge up the Hudson river. New York problems deal more with Long Island and it lack of protection. Anyone living on Long Island should feel at least a tinge of apprehension seeing the images from Galveston. There is a lot of similarity between the two places. Thankfully, there are far few hurricanes that maintain category 3 strength that hit New York than Texas.

The other distinct possibility is a direct hit on Providence. A major hurricane striking near Charlestown or Kingston, Rhode Island would send a storm surge straight up Narragansett Bay into Providence. Just as in the case of Long Island, although the geography is ideal for a devastating hurricane; the meteorology is not. Hurricanes are usually moving northeast as they skirt the coastline of Rhode Island. But, there are some hurricanes which refuse to read the book on hurricane behavior.

In September of 1938 a major unnamed category 3 hurricane slammed into Long Island and continued into Connecticut. In September of 1944 a huge category 3 hurricane blasted Long Island and Rhode Island. In September of 1954, Hurricane Carol (another category 3 storm) hit Long Island and Connecticut. A few weeks later, Hurricane Edna looked like it would hit the same areas but veered to the east and blasted Cape Cod, Massachusetts. In 1955 Hurricane Connie skirted the North Carolina coast and went up Chesapeake Bay.

In early September of 1960, the fifth strongest hurricane to hit the United States, Hurricane Donna struck Florida, North Carolina and Rhode Island. In June of 1972 Hurricane Agnes came ashore in the Florida Panhandle and re-emerged off the coast of North Carolina and hit New York City as a category 1 hurricane. In September of 1999 Hurricane Floyd tore through North Carolina and continued on to New England as a strong Tropical Storm. Numerous other remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have caused very high tides and flooding rains to all these areas.

Looking back on history it is very clear that portions of the Eastern Seaboard are far past due for a major hurricane strike. A hurricane with the strength of the 1938, 1944 or 1954 ones would cause damage beyond the scope of imagination to Long Island due to the massive building which has gone there over the past 50-70 years. Considering there has not been a major hurricane to hit anywhere in the Northeast since Donna in 1960; there obviously is not the experiential base to draw upon.

Those living anywhere along the East Coast of the United States need to start thinking NOW about what to do if a hurricane does indeed form and heads north from the Bahamas. This is not the time to automatically discount this idea as pure foolishness or hysteria arousing hype. There is a very real hurricane threat for the Mid Atlantic coast all the way to New England over the next week or so.

I am sure as the weather develops, we will have a need to repeat what we did during the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike merry-go-round of storms. The next 3 weeks are sure to hold the distinct possibility of storms, hurricanes and rumors of hurricanes for many sections of the United States coastline form Texas to Maine. Such fun and games to look forward to.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.