Let it be known right now, right here that what follows is strictly my own opinion and nothing more. Those people thinking either the United States or Europe will come to the aid of Georgia militarily are sadly mistaken. It will never happen, regardless of the circumstances. There is no way the West is going to engage Russia in a war. It simply will not happen due to economic as well as political reasons.
Russia is the world’s second largest oil producer and supplies much of the energy needs for much of Europe. Even if Russia decides to “punish” the Ukraine or even Poland for their ties to the West, there is no way the West would risk losing their precious oil and natural gas supplies to defend ex-Soviet bloc countries. The prevailing attitude of avoiding a third European war within a hundred years will stifle any voices crying for military confrontation with Russia.
Those with eyes to see should be able to clearly see what is happening. Russia has let it be known that if Iran is invaded, the consequences would be terrible for the West. It is no secret that the United States started moving even more naval vessels into the Gulf area recently. Is it strictly a coincidence that at the same time the United States makes a move that potentially could be seen as preparing for an attack on Iran, Russia launches its military offensive against Georgia?
If the much threatened and talked about attack on Iran were to happen, almost immediately Russia would probably invade and take back over a country such as the Ukraine or possibly even Poland. Since the West would and could not do anything since it just “invaded” Iran, nothing would stop Russia from retaking all the countries that once were part of the Soviet Union. Of course this is a worst case scenario but it is reflective of the world in which we live today.
Everyone thought the “cold war” was over twenty years ago when the Soviet Union broke up with amazing speed. Now, we are quickly regressing back to the way things were in the 1980’s. When the rights of sovereign countries are ignored and territorial demarcations are wiped off the map; we are indeed re-entering an era of the strongest prevailing and the weakest being taken over.
Europe has proven over and over again its willingness to pacify anyone bigger and stronger than even their collective union. Europe would gladly raise the white flag than risk another military conflict on their soil. NATO is a joke and could not withstand the Russian military machine for much longer than the Georgian army did. NATO is only strong if the United States is willing to be involved. Even if the United States wanted to get involved, its military is spread so thin right now fighting terrorists, any help would be limited to Air support.
The West’s response to Georgia’s situation is the prototype for all future incursions by the Russian military machine. Sure there is a lot of talk and wagging the finger at the mean bullies from Moscow, but nothing more except a couple of token flights of a huge supply plane to bring in cots and blankets. Good grief, more was done for earthquake victims in countries that hate the United States than is being done to help one of its staunchest allies.
If John Kennedy had not stood up to the Russians in 1962 and ordered the blockade of Cuba, odds are there would have ended up being a nuclear exchange and neither Russia or the United States would be who they are today. It took unprecedented “guts” for our President to look the Russian bear in the eyes and tell it to back away. Amazingly, the bear growled and proceeded to run away with its tail between its legs.
Ronald Reagan dared challenge the Soviet bear and in the process precipitated its demise. Not only was the Berlin wall torn down, but the entire country of Germany was reunited, and all the Eastern European nations regained their independence. When a President takes a stand and draws a line in the sand which cannot be crossed without dire consequences; the enemy will think long and hard before crossing such line.
All the attempts to pacify Hitler yielded only his incredible land grab in the early years of World War II. If Winston Churchill had not drawn a line in the sand and refused to placate Hitler, the Nazi’s would have succeeded in taking Europe before the United States could fire a shot in her defense. Time and again history had taught that a leader must take a stand or his country or people will become subjects to whoever is stronger.
I am not advocating war with Russia for that is foolish and suicidal. I am advocating doing something besides the endless diplomatic tongue wagging which the Europeans are notoriously known for. The West can sit back and scold Russia for the next year and all Russia will do is keep doing whatever it desires. Russia does not need the West’s help due to its vast energy reserves and military machine.
If it were not so tragic, what is happening in Georgia would almost be humorous. While the West scuttles diplomats all over the place and the UN debates possible “sanctions” against Russia; Russia just keeps advancing toward the capital of Georgia undeterred. Once they get there they will not leave. All the tongue lashing in the world will do nothing but give them a big belly laugh for they know they can do whatever they please and no one will dare stop them.