There is plenty to be nervous about

I would not say that I am afraid, for I am not; but I will readily admit that the incredible things happening with the weather and economy make me very nervous.  There is a huge difference between being afraid and being nervous.  One is counterproductive and the other is the natural reaction to uneasy situations.

Just four years ago I would have been working 20 hours per day finding relief supplies for tornado victims in the St. Louis area and flooding victims in southern Missouri.  I know my days of trying to “save the world” after every disaster ended some time ago, but I am still deeply impacted as I see images of destruction and hear reports of catastrophic flooding soon to cause untold problems in many areas.  Throw into the mix some of the worst wildfires Texas has ever seen and you have a truly troubling situation building.

I study weather and I have seen from multiple sources that the upcoming month of May will be MUCH COOLER than normal throughout much of the USA except along the Gulf coast.  The last two times this happened were 2005 and 2008 which were years that produced hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma; and 2008 which produced hurricanes Gustov and Ike.  Many experts are already warning of the imminent possibility of multiple strikes by huge hurricanes along the United States coastline this summer.

For a very long time I used to study and try to understand economic concerns.  What is currently happening is so distressing that I no longer have the desire to try and figure out what is happening and about to happen.  Contrary to what media outlets are saying, there is a period of hyper-inflation just around the next bend.  We are already seeing it in the constantly rising prices for gasoline and food.

It is estimated that nearly 15% of all Americans have had to raid their retirement accounts to find resources for emergencies.  I know this is true for I am one of those 15% and am not proud of it.  But, when all other sources of income are removed, and expenses pile up; there is no place left to go but to the IRA or 401k that was supposed to provide income for 25 years or more after retirement.

Recent studies have indicated that the housing market for super expensive properties is rebounding and doing fine.  Those with plenty of money are spending it on lavish homes that cost well over a million dollars.  Those homes in foreclosure are also being purchased by people with money and then rented out to desperate people who have lost their homes.

Meanwhile those homes in the $100,000 to $600,000 range just sit there.  No one qualifies for a loan and no one has the money to pay the huge down payment to move up or down.  Most of us live in these kinds of homes and are stuck in them for many years to come.

I cannot do nothing about the weather or the economy so all I can do is pray for wisdom for those deeply impacted by both.  May God grant us all great patience and understanding so as to make the right decisions and have the means to help our neighbor, brother, parent or child in need.

Watch Our for Late Season Tropical Development and Early Season Cold and Snow

It will be very interesting to see what does or does not develop in the Caribbean this week. There are numerous areas of disturbed weather which might affect the United States or could end up being much ado about nothing. All interests from Texas to Florida and from Florida to North Carolina must keep at least one eye squinting at the tropics.

The system off the east coast of northern Florida will produce high tides and potentially heavy rains as it drifts west. If it stays far enough south, it could emerge from the west coast of Florida in few days and once in the Gulf of Mexico could develop into some kind of a hybrid storm or even a tropical storm. Although no one is stating this possibility in any forecasts, there is the potential for a “Fay” type event in the exact same areas Fay attacked earlier in the summer.

The system south of Puerto Rico is currently labeled “invest” and certainly needs to be investigated. The models are all over the map and although the potential to curve northeast exists, there is greater probability the system will head toward Hispaniola and from there who knows where. The other current “invest” is not anything to be concerned about.

With two Mexican storms hitting along its west coast, coupled with the front making its way across the United States, there is always the potential for the tail end of these systems to stall in the Gulf and turn into a tropical system. The western Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico must be watched this week for any development.

Boise, Idaho had its earliest recorded snow the other day. Does this mean anything? Probably not, but it is indicative of some very cold air in the area. Of greater interest is the abundant snow in Wyoming. Most of the state received a very heavy early season snow the past few days.

Most independent experts are calling for the high probability of a much colder and wetter early winter this year. This translates into the potential for November snows over much of the Midwest, Ohio valley and northeast. The wise traveler would at least take this into consideration when thinking of the very late Thanksgiving this year.

I live out west of St. Louis, Missouri and remember distinctly early November of 1991 when we had a high temperature of 21 degrees followed by 6 inches of snow. Both were records for so early in the year, but proof that even this far south, it is possible to see a very early winter. What is interesting to note is that winter ended up being very mild after the brutal early start.

The pattern this year favors more what we saw during the winters of 1989-90 and again in 2000-2001. December 1989 was one of the most brutal periods much of the country ever saw so early in the winter. I remember days where the HIGH temperature was -10 degrees in St. Louis. This had never happened and hasn’t happened since. January of 1990 was as mild as December was cold. February of 1990 was almost as brutally cold as December had been.

These “bookend” winters are some of the most extreme. Not only is there the swinging back and forth to deal with, there is the problems associated with bad weather in December and all the traveling and shopping that take place then. On the other side of the coin is the fun and games associated with a mild January. I recall vividly the Pope riding through St. Louis with everyone in short sleeved shirts as the temperature hit 70 in the middle of January 1999.

Regardless of how this winter plays out, there is bound to be hardship due to the economic situation. A bad November/December could be disastrous for many who are already strapped for money. I recall vividly the almost $500 natural gas bill we had after the wicked December cold in 1989. That was a lot of money to pay for gas back almost twenty years ago.

If people are faced with super high utility bills on top of everything else going on, this early winter could be the straw that breaks many homeowner’s backs. I pray that either the long range forecasts turn out to not be as harsh as possible or that something breaks in the financial realm to soften the blow of what could be a very difficult couple of months coming up.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.

Ike’s Storm Surge Will be Catastrophic For Many

If this statement from the National Weather Service Office in Galveston, Texas does not get people’s attention, nothing will:

Life threatening inundation likely!

All neighborhoods… and possibly entire coastal communities…
will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide. Persons
not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story
homes will face certain death. Many residences of average
construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread
and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere.
Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads
will be swamped… some may be washed away by the water. Entire
flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may
exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in
multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be
worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property
damage… with massive destruction of homes… including those of
block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to
repair.

Anyone naïve enough to think that Ike is nothing to fear, needs to read the above advisory a few times. The same type of advisory was written by the NWS in New Orleans just before Katrina hit. All came to pass as stated.

Let me state this in no uncertain terms. Ike may or may not turn into a category 4 storm but the storm surge will be as great as Katrina’s was. When looking at sheer size of Ike, it is no wonder that the storm surge is the greatest concern right now. Ike is currently bigger than Katrina ever was and its hurricane and tropical force winds extend further than Katrina’s did when it was a category 5 storm. Storm surge readings today on the Mississippi coast were nearly 5 feet. This is from a storm 250 miles out to sea.

Galveston has been under mandatory evacuation orders since noon. Many areas of Houston need to be. Carla sent a storm surge all the way into Houston in 1961 of nearly 15 feet into Houston. Carla hit 120 miles from the city. Biloxi, Mississippi reported a storm surge of 20 feet and was close to 75 miles from Katrina’s landfall. With reported waves of 50 feet or more in the Gulf, it is no wonder that the overwhelming concern at the moment is the storm surge.

Yes, Ike may yet veer off to the east and spare Galveston and Houston from its worst wrath. Yes, Ike may not intensify into the category 3 or 4 storm feared. Yes, Ike may not be the storm of the century. But, Ike is going to greatly impact someone in or near the Galveston/Houston area. Ike is going to produce storm surge problems for hundreds of miles of the Texas and Louisiana coastline.

Ike has been a difficult storm to forecast and figure out since its inception. Ike has rarely done as he was supposed to do and has baffled forecasters of all degrees of skill time and again. Not even two days ago, everyone was so sure Ike was heading to Brownsville or even Mexico. As we get ever closer to landfall, Ike is slowly but surely inching further and further up the coast and down the coast. Ike is like a lot of guys I have known in life who simply are not going to do as they are told to do.

Part of what should be of utmost concern to people is the inability to accurately get a fix on Ike’s track and intensity. Part of what should deeply concern people is the size of this storm. Other than not having a well defined eye (yet), Ike looks awesome on satellite photos. The amount of space occupied by Ike in the Gulf of Mexico is quite amazing. Perhaps, as I read today, somebody fed steroids to Ike to pump him up. I don’t know about that, but one thing is certain, and that is that Ike is going to set records in some categories and perhaps many.

I was stationed in Mississippi as a minister between 1978 and 1980. I made many trips to the coast during that time, and Biloxi was one of my favorite places to go in the whole state. I spent many an hour sitting on the beach enjoying the warm winds and quietness. I never traveled that road or saw those beaches again until 2006 about 7 months after Katrina hit. I will never forget the utter shock I felt at the power of a 25 foot storm surge.

Everything was gone. The surge took the buildings and threw them who knows where. All that was left was the foundations to the buildings. The storm surge was like a vacuum cleaner lifting all in its path and leaving nothing behind. The storm surge took out two huge bridges and turned communities into ghost towns for nearly two years.

I shudder to think what a 25 foot storm surge would do to Galveston or a 20 foot surge to Houston. When I think back to what I saw along the Mississippi coast; I stay motivated to keep writing these posts for whoever might be reading them. It is impossible to survive a storm surge unless safely in a high rise building. I pity those who have chosen suicide by ignoring the orders to leave Galveston. I pray those with ears to hear have heard the warnings and taken all appropriate action.

URGENT–Galveston and Houston Now Appear in Ike’s Sight

URGENT

Look at the latest GDFL model run!! It now has Ike going straight for Galveston/Houston. This is an extremely bad situation. Ike is intensifying quickly and no doubt will attain category 3 and probably category 4 status. A worst case scenario would be a hit to the south of Galveston pushing a huge storm surge up Galveston Bay. Considering the amount of oil related businesses, this could be an economic and environmental disaster.

Is the greater Houston area prepared for winds of 100 mph or greater? I don’t know for I don’t live there. All I know is that at this time, no one outside of coastal Texas is taking Ike seriously. Ike will pass hundreds of miles to the south of Mississippi yet there are coastal flood warnings in place there until Friday. Word has it the water is already high and covering some roads. What is going to happen as Ike gets bigger and stronger and passes by New Orleans and areas hit by Gustov?

Ike is still not a major news story because the nation as a whole is far more interested in lipstick on various animals than the potential catastrophe heading for Texas. Whether the nation as a whole wakes up to what is happening or not, those living near where Ike could end up making landfall need to be packing their vehicles and getting a head start on the monumental traffic jam coming when millions of people will try leave at once.

IKE IS NOT GOING AWAY.

Ike is behaving in much the same way Katrina and Rita did three years ago. A storm the size of Ike is not going to just fall apart in September in the Gulf of Mexico. With each passing model run, the odds of Ike hitting farther and farther UP the coast of Texas increase. Yet, I heard on the news a couple of hours ago about Ike maybe hitting Brownsville. What planet were they on? NO ONE is talking about a south Texas hit any longer.

The multitudes of people in the Galveston/Houston area will end up having less than 48 hours to get out of the way of Ike. Many will think just going inland fifty miles will allow them to be safe. Let me tell you, after seeing the damage Katrina did 125 miles north of landfall, those people will deeply regret only going 50 miles.

There is a huge risk of a massive tornado outbreak with Ike just as there was Rita. I was at Cameron, Louisiana and spoke with survivors. They lived through Rita and told me there were “hundreds of tornadoes” and that it was the tornadoes which caused as much damage as the storm surge and winds. I was at a hurricane conference in Houston and brought this up and was promptly shot down by the “experts” at the NHC.

THE REAL AND PRESENT DANGER

Complacency breeds disaster. Far too many people have been lulled into a false sense of security by looking at maps showing Ike heading for south Texas. Unless people wake up and realize what is happening with the steering currents, they will not have time to get out. Whether the storm actually makes it all the way to Galveston or not, the people there and in Houston have to deal with highways unable to handle the mass exodus of a total evacuation. The nightmares associated with the Rita evacuation have caused many to wait until the last minute to leave. Not a good thing.

Many of the oil rigs in the Gulf have already been caught off guard by Ike and many more will be. When looking at the satellite it is obvious that Ike is quickly taking on all the characteristics of a major hurricane, including taking up most of the Gulf of Mexico. There is a very real chance that by tomorrow, Ike could look on a satellite almost exactly as both Katrina and Rita did at nearly the same spot. The difference is that those two storms went predominantly north and Ike is going west to northwest.

Please, if you live anywhere on the Texas coast or have interests there, investigate what is really being said about Ike outside of the “official” line. Ike will become a major news story shortly, and once it does, it will be a royal mess trying to go anywhere. A smart person would already have the car and truck packed and ready to leave at a moment’s notice. I pray all involved are smart people.

I just checked with one of my most trusted sources and he has pulled the trigger urging the evacuation of Galveston and Houston. I know he would not go out on that limb if he did not feel there was reason to risk his reputation and worse. Those with interests in the area need to not only have the car packed, but the gas tank full and the engine running. Please stay abreast of this potentially horrible disaster in the making.

Hanna Fizzles while Ike Sizzles; Watch Out Gulf Coast

So, after all the ranting and raving about possible horrible scenarios with Hanna; it turned out to be very strong tropical storm/weak category 1 hurricane after all. Once again, this points out the two-edged sword of forecasting. On one side all available data can lead to a landfall forecast that ended up being exactly where forecasted 5 days in advance; but on the other hand, the intensity forecasts went from a category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm.

I was speaking tonight with an associate in the Mobile, Alabama area who said the prevailing attitude among the people down there is one of anger at the weather forecasters for making them board up their homes and evacuate. They are saying there is no way they will go through that again. The scary thing is that this is exactly what led to the Katrina disaster to begin with. Frustrated people who vowed to ride out “the next one” based on slight errors regarding Ivan and other hurricanes.

However understandable this mentality is, it is suicidal in the end. However frustrated we all get with those who forecast and telecast those forecasts, we cannot allow that frustration to manifest itself as utter stupidity. In the winter, we are led to believe we are going to get buried with two feet of snow only to get a dusting. In the spring we are told to prepare for tornadoes and it never even rains. We all know how frustrating it is when forecasts go awry.

The simple truth of the matter is that if a person wants to live near the ocean, it is with the understanding that periodically there will be hurricanes and tropical storms. There will also be rumors of storms, unnecessary evacuations and power outages. These are just the price to be paid for the benefit of the coastal environment.

Hanna was never a busted forecast storm. There were many who thought it might intensify before reaching the coast, but it never did due to speed more than anything else. Once a tropical storm starts moving as fast as Hanna is moving, the chances of it having time to develop into a huge storm are slim. A person could hardly drive much faster than Hanna will be going tomorrow and Sunday.

Ike is the all consuming story for the next week. All models are now taking Ike through the southern Bahamas and either into northern Cuba or between Florida and Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico. All models curve Ike to the northwest after passing Cuba/Florida. With each model run, it is appearing that the Gulf Coast may have to deal with Ike by the middle of next week.

Personally, this far out, I think it is impossible to know what Ike is going to do besides be a MAJOR hurricane for someone. Whether Florida or the central Gulf Coast or even the Texas coast; someone is going to feel the full brunt of what could be the most powerful hurricane to hit the United States since Wilma in 2005.

Since there is still plenty of time to prepare, those with an interest anywhere from Houston to Boston should simply keep an eye on Ike this weekend to see if there is any changes to its track. Please join with me in prayer that if nothing else, Ike stays away from Haiti. That poor nation cannot endure much more with totally falling into a state of complete chaos and anarchy. The suffering going on in that country at this time is beyond the ability of anyone in this country to comprehend.

I sense a lot of fear on the part of people who have never lived through, or lived through only one hurricane. Fear is not good, but a healthy respect for the power of a hurricane is good. Preparation usually eliminates fear, for fear creeps in when unknown circumstances arise with no apparent escape. That is why the full spectrum of hurricane preparation is vitally needed. It is not just having some extra beer in the fridge or few extra cans of beans in the pantry.

A full array of questions need to be asked of each member of the family to ever arrive at the perfect hurricane preparedness kit. Each person has different needs and wants and as much as can fit needs to be placed in a box and labeled “hurricane”. When the time comes to evacuate, the box is ready except for perishable food.

Part of preparation is having an escape route and having the funds to get to and back from where you are going. It is incredible how many people are stranded in various southeastern states who evacuated from Louisiana and Mississippi and do not have any money to get home. We are talking tens of thousands of people stuck in horrible shelters without the funds to purchase gas to get home. God forbid they finally get home and are forced to evacuate again for Ike.

The next 48 hours will tell us what Ike is thinking. From Sunday evening forward, certain people somewhere will have to start the dreaded process of evacuating, physically preparing for and wondering if it was all worth it. Rather than heaping scorn on these people, let us resolve to offer prayers for them. They will surly need them.

Hanna could still explode; Ike waiting in the wings

My heart was deeply moved by some pictures someone alerted me to via a comment on one of these hurricane blog posts. Please take a moment and look at the damage hurricane/tropical storm Hanna did to the second biggest city in Haiti.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ifrc/

I know that the stripped hills and other factors make flooding occur more often and worse in Haiti than any other country in the Western Hemisphere. But, the facts are these:

1. A tropical storm when parked over a given area long enough, will produce enough rain to flood just about any location regardless of the terrain.

2. Hurricane winds are a huge part of the problems brought about by tropical storms, but wind is not the ONLY problem. Water from rain and storm surges cause as much damage as wind during many storms.

3. If the countryside has been stripped of trees and other vegetation, flooding rains will be magnified and the damage far more catastrophic than in areas where the natural vegetation is still there.

There are two types of tropical storms or minor hurricanes which can inflict major damage upon a community, county or state. First is the slow moving “wet” storms such as tropical storm Fay was last month. Fay never produced any winds which caused any damage to speak of. Yet, tropical storm Fay caused millions upon millions of dollars of damage through flooding rains which would not quit. When it rains heavily for 36 or more hours straight; there is going to be major flooding in flat areas especially.

The second “bad” storm is the one which is rapidly intensifying as it comes ashore. These storms produce much more wind damage than a slow moving or diminishing hurricane would. The classic example of this was hurricane Andrew. When it came ashore, it was going through an intensification process every bit as impressive as hurricane Ike did two days ago. No one would ever want to be near a hurricane going from tropical storm strength to category 4 in a matter of hours.

The concern with storms such as Hanna are that they are huge and that this storm will go from having “sat” in the Bahamas for days to off the New England coast in a matter of less than two days. When a storm takes off like a rocket, it rarely has time to intensify past a category 1 but its speed does tend to amplify the winds and cause more damage than a slow moving storm.

Hanna is not to be dismissed as just a bad Nor’easter. Hanna will retain the potential to become a strong category 1 or higher storm all the way until it reaches land. Last year, Humberto set a record for being the fastest storm to ever become a hurricane. It went from an area of disturbed weather south of Houston to a very strong category 1 hurricane that slammed into far southeast Texas in a matter of hours. NEVER should a tropical system be dismissed as harmless. If it is named, it needs to be watched closely.

Hanna may go down as a very minor hurricane but we do not know. In 2006, Ernesto was the only the hurricane of consequence to affect the United States due to a sudden El Nino in the Pacific. Ernesto COULD have been a huge monster storm causing untold damage if it had not lingered over Florida. If it would have had more time over the warm Gulf Stream waters, it would have exploded and come ashore as a much stronger hurricane than it did.

Because Ernesto was so lightly thought of at the time, my brother and sister-in-law went ahead and took their yearly vacation to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina RIGHT AS ERNESTO CAME ASHORE. They lived to tell about their ordeal, but they should have never been allowed to be where they were. Why the road were not closed off to traffic going to the beach is a mystery known only to those involved. If Ernesto would have slowed down and lingered by even another hour, I fear that my wife would have lost her sister that fateful day.

The best guess with Hanna is that it will produce a lot of rain and wind from the coast of North Carolina all the way up I-95 to Boston. It may not cause much damage, but it sure did in Haiti. Once Hanna makes her move then Ike can decide whether to go west into the Gulf of Mexico to harass New Orleans or move up the Florida coast to finish what Hanna started. As powerful as Ike is now, he will weaken in the days ahead. How much he strengthens again is only conjecture at the moment. The experts do expect Ike to be a major hurricane affecting someone by this time next week. Let us all pray it is not Haiti.

This year’s “GHI” hurricanes will, if nothing else will go down in history as providing hours of hair pulling stress for hurricane forecasters. In fact, if Fay if included, then the “FGHI” hurricanes most definitely will live as a testimony to the good, the getting better and the still horrible art of hurricane forecasting. Despite the great strides made the past few years in being able to determine the strength and track of storms, there is still no way to absolutely say 4 or 5 days in advance where a storm is going and how strong it will be. At least we will not have another storm “sneak up” on us like in Galveston a hundred years ago.

The Good–Gustov; The Bad–Hanna; The Ugly–???

Even before Gustov officially makes landfall it is obvious the storm is NOT going to be Katrina number two. It could have been and if not for the cooler water, wind shear and dry air making its way into the system it could have been a very bad hurricane. As it turns out, Gustov will greatly impact some, especially in southern Louisiana, but will not produce the catastrophic flooding once feared.

So, does this make all the various government agencies and officials who prompted two million people to evacuate wrong? I believe only a fool would think so. Gustov provided everyone from the mayor of New Orleans to FEMA the opportunity to show the nation how much has improved in the realm of emergency management since the dark days of Katrina.

The powers that be really had no choice, politically or humanitarian wise, but to order the evacuation of New Orleans and surrounding areas. Just two days ago as Gustov wiped western Cuba off the map and appeared headed for the warm water loop north of Cuba, all models were forecasting a rapid intensification to a category 4 or even 5 storm. In light of the available information, there was no other course of action which could be taken than to order total evacuation of a city that sits many feet below sea level.

Whether through prayers or the intricate variety of factors which make or break a hurricane; Gustov never ramped up and in fact lost much of his strength after crossing Cuba. Many experts think this was because of cooler waters left over in the Gulf after Fay. Others think it was because of a combination of factors. I will let these experts figure out the reasons why later, but for now we should all be thankful that we are not going to be dealing with Katrina two later today and in the days/weeks/months/years to come.

As good as the news may end up being regarding Gustov, the news regarding Hanna is not so good. While everyone has been glued to the developing saga in the Gulf, Hanna has been enduring everything that would normally kill a tropical storm as she sits near the Bahamas. Hanna will shortly make her move north and once tapped into the Gulf Stream, watch out.

Current forecast tracks take Hanna into Georgia or South Carolina as a category 1 storm. Independent forecasters are quite sure Hanna will become every bit as strong as Gustov is and end up in the Myrtle Beach area of South Carolina or little further north. With a potential landfall of Friday, this gives all parties a few days to prepare, and the wise people would do just that.

What appears to be taking shape is a hit late in the week from Hanna and then a week later from what should become Ike. Both storms are taking aim at the Carolinas. There might be one more storm in this burst of activity, but that is debatable. The experts are saying we could see a lull for three weeks before a final burst in tropical activity in October. I am quite sure that for many, that is the last thing they will want to think about.

In conclusion, I pray the response to an incoming storm that has been manifested with Gustov will be just as strong for Hanna and any storms after her. I pray that the massive array of support in place for Gustov was not strictly political, but shows the commitment by FEMA and other governmental agencies to protect our country from natural enemies just as they do from human ones. When you think about it; isn’t an enemy an enemy, regardless of how it looks or the weapons it possesses?

If all the resources of the United States military are available to help in a disaster, there is no reason to believe there will ever be a fiasco such as Katrina again. But, if such resources are withheld or spread too thin, then the burden falls again on the private sector to prepare people and help them as first responders. In all but the worst disasters the military should not be involved, but if there is a chance we could see anything like Katrina, then I see no harm in enlisting the very best resources available to help, protect and serve the citizens of this country.

Be Prepared, Have a Plan and Keep One Eye on the Southeastern Sky

Three years ago, the United States felt a collective punch in the gut as hurricane Katrina slammed ashore and brought with it human suffering and physical damage previously unimagined. Before Katrina, the worst disaster to hit the country was hurricane Andrew. Many years had passed since Andrew blew away Homestead, Florida and much of the country had forgotten just how devastating a major hurricane can be when it hits a populated area.

Less than a month after Katrina scoured the Mississippi coast and flooded New Orleans; hurricane Rita formed and quickly became a category 5 storm. Initially it appeared Rita would surpass Katrina as far as strength and location. By all apparent indications, Rita looked like it was heading directly for Galveston and then Houston, Texas.

With images of Katrina fresh in people’s minds, millions of people tried to leave Houston all at once and succeeded in producing the world’s biggest traffic jam. Before the last of the evacuee’s could make it out of town, Rita moved to the east and ended up slamming into the Lake Charles, Louisiana area. Even though it weakened, the damage the storm surge alone caused to small fishing communities on the coast was surreal.

Near the end of the hurricane season, Wilma formed in the Gulf of Mexico and headed east to Florida. Wilma slammed into far southern Florida with a vengeance and only added to the woes from the previous year when one storm after another criss-crossed the state causing staggering losses to property. Thankfully, Wilma did not hit where Charley had exploded the previous year. Wilma veered a little to the south.

In three months in 2005, three major hurricanes plowed into the Gulf coast of the United States. The weakest of the three, Katrina, ended up becoming a tragedy this country never had dealt with before. What would have happened if:

1. Katrina had not weakened from a category 5 to a category 3 storm by the time it made landfall?

2. Rita would have stayed on course and remained a category 5 storm hitting Galveston and then Houston, Texas?

3. Rita would have kept going east and hit the same area Katrina had torn up a few weeks earlier?

4. Wilma would have veered off course and hit the same area Katrina and Rita had hit?

Perhaps one of the worst things to come out of the Rita scare was the reluctance now on the part of the masses to heed warnings to evacuate. Most people would rather take their chances riding out a hurricane than get stuck in a traffic jam like the one those leaving Houston encountered. It is nigh unto impossible to convince people to evacuate anyway, but after the Rita fiasco, it has been even harder.

Fast forward to the present. We currently have Gustov unexpectedly hitting Jamaica. Where it goes, how strong it gets and the precise location it ends up hitting are all unknowns at present. Yesterday the NHC track had it going straight into New Orleans. Today it is further west. By the time it gets close enough to know for sure where it is going to hit, there is not enough time to prepare and evacuate. This is no one’s fault, it is just the result of inexact science.

Getting ready to blow up into hurricane Hanna a storm is poised to head straight for southern Florida this time next week. Again, it is impossible to know if this will be a huge storm or a minimal one. It is also absolutely impossible to know where it is heading. Due to meteorological conditions, it is pretty much a certainty this storm will form, grow and head west from the Bahamas toward Florida.

Far out in the Atlantic there are the beginnings of what might be Ike. This is entirely too far away to be concerned with except to say that this hurricane season will seemingly go on forever with storms and rumors of storms. There is a very real chance we could still see a major East Coast hurricane in October. This is not unheard of, since Hugo was a devastating October hurricane.

Weather forecasting is full of “what ifs”. The models take all the “what ifs” into account and try to provide the most logical outcome. But, with so many variables, there is no way to know even 24 hours in advance the precise location a hurricane’s eye will cross land. This is why hurricane watches must be taken as more than a nuisance and warnings must be heeded unless a person has a death wish.

Years ago a combination of events led to the “perfect storm” written about and then made into a hit movie. Perfect storms are extremely rare, but occasionally take place. They are the sum total of all the “what ifs” coming together in the worst case scenario. Thankfully the afore mentioned “what ifs” three years ago did not take place. Thus, the country was spared the agony of watching either three huge metropolitan areas hit by category 5 hurricanes within a couple of months or one location getting hit two or three times.

God forbid the current string of storms would produce the same scenario as three years ago; although there is that faint possibility. All persons from Galveston/Houston to Miami should at least be aware that there is a chance one or more major hurricanes could strike within the next two months, and especially within the next two weeks.

Common sense demands general preparations be in place every year along the Gulf Coast. This year, I believe the preparation needs to be ratcheted up a notch due to the relentless storm/rumor of storm situation presenting itself. More than anything else, people should at least have a plan. Those who suffer the most in any storm are those who had no plan to deal with what might arise. Be prepared, have a plan and keep one eye on the southeastern sky.

Fay “could” end up more of a headache than Katrina was

There is little, if any historical data to compare what Tropical Storm Fay is doing to. Thus, logic dictates there is even less data to look at as to what it COULD do. This little storm has managed to cause even the most skilled forecasters to scratch their heads in utter bewilderment. If the scenario should happen to play out over the next few days this storm would make history.

Weather events do not happen by luck, chance or coincidence. There are meteorological reasons for why a storm does what it does. Storms do not have a mind of their own which enables them to deliberately do things to aggravate forecasters. Storms end up doing what the various aspects of weather governing it tell it to do.

One of the most distressing possible ways the whole Fay saga could end is if the storm makes history by hitting near Jacksonville, Florida as category 1 hurricane and moves west back across Florida and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico intact. If, and the probabilities of this taking place are very slim, this were to happen the end results from Fay could be worse than Katrina three years ago.

Winds blow counterclockwise around a hurricane. Katrina came up from the south and because of this, the storm surge ended up being over twenty feet along the Mississippi coast. The initial damage in New Orleans from Katrina was minimal because it sat on the western side of the hurricane moving north. The New Orleans catastrophe came about when Katrina moved ashore and the winds switched to the north and blew the waters from Lake Pontchartrain into the city which sits below sea level.

If Fay were to move west from Florida towards New Orleans, the potential disaster would dwarf Katrina. Why? Because the westward movement of the storm would produce a prolonged period of NORTH winds ahead of the approaching storm. Instead of a storm surge preceding the hurricane like Katrina, the storm surge would follow the storm and be minimal. The greater danger would be the north winds over a prolonged time blowing the waters of Lake Pontchartrain into the city of New Orleans.

Due to the lay of the land and where the city of New Orleans sits, there is actually very little danger of a storm surge inundating the city. The potential problems have always laid in the scenario of a storm moving in from the southeast or east and generating a prolonged period of hurricane force winds over Lake Pontchartrain. Unless a person has been to the area it is difficult to picture how a lake could cause more problems than an ocean; but such is the case in New Orleans.

No one knows at this time what Fay will end up doing. It may come ashore again and more or less just fizzle out. It may come ashore and move to the northwest into Georgia and help break the longstanding drought there. It may emerge on the west side of Florida, move south and make a loop following the same path it just took. It may emerge into the warm waters of the Gulf, become a hurricane and move west directly toward New Orleans.

This storm has a history of NOT doing what the computer models think it should do. Because of this, it would be highly advantageous for anyone from the panhandle of Florida to New Orleans to be acutely aware of the movements of Fay over the next few days. Some models and some hurricane experts think the greatest danger is that Fay emerges off the west coast of Florida, immediately intensifies and follows Ivan’s 1994 path which would put Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida at high risk.

Needless to say, the next three to seven days could end up being at the very least, interesting and at the worst, a disaster which would equal or exceed Katrina in some respects. And as if this were not enough to be concerned about, out in the Atlantic is the next storm which is slowly taking shape and could be buffeting some portion of the United States coastline by this time next week.

I would highly recommend anyone with interests on the Gulf Coast to monitor what Fay is doing very closely along with the next storm. The remainder of this hurricane season could end up being very active and one that presents forecasters with storms such as Fay which are nearly impossible to forecast. As in any hurricane season, the next 2 months are the most dangerous and especially so this year. Vigilance is the key word for the day and for the days to come.