There is plenty to be nervous about

I would not say that I am afraid, for I am not; but I will readily admit that the incredible things happening with the weather and economy make me very nervous.  There is a huge difference between being afraid and being nervous.  One is counterproductive and the other is the natural reaction to uneasy situations.

Just four years ago I would have been working 20 hours per day finding relief supplies for tornado victims in the St. Louis area and flooding victims in southern Missouri.  I know my days of trying to “save the world” after every disaster ended some time ago, but I am still deeply impacted as I see images of destruction and hear reports of catastrophic flooding soon to cause untold problems in many areas.  Throw into the mix some of the worst wildfires Texas has ever seen and you have a truly troubling situation building.

I study weather and I have seen from multiple sources that the upcoming month of May will be MUCH COOLER than normal throughout much of the USA except along the Gulf coast.  The last two times this happened were 2005 and 2008 which were years that produced hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma; and 2008 which produced hurricanes Gustov and Ike.  Many experts are already warning of the imminent possibility of multiple strikes by huge hurricanes along the United States coastline this summer.

For a very long time I used to study and try to understand economic concerns.  What is currently happening is so distressing that I no longer have the desire to try and figure out what is happening and about to happen.  Contrary to what media outlets are saying, there is a period of hyper-inflation just around the next bend.  We are already seeing it in the constantly rising prices for gasoline and food.

It is estimated that nearly 15% of all Americans have had to raid their retirement accounts to find resources for emergencies.  I know this is true for I am one of those 15% and am not proud of it.  But, when all other sources of income are removed, and expenses pile up; there is no place left to go but to the IRA or 401k that was supposed to provide income for 25 years or more after retirement.

Recent studies have indicated that the housing market for super expensive properties is rebounding and doing fine.  Those with plenty of money are spending it on lavish homes that cost well over a million dollars.  Those homes in foreclosure are also being purchased by people with money and then rented out to desperate people who have lost their homes.

Meanwhile those homes in the $100,000 to $600,000 range just sit there.  No one qualifies for a loan and no one has the money to pay the huge down payment to move up or down.  Most of us live in these kinds of homes and are stuck in them for many years to come.

I cannot do nothing about the weather or the economy so all I can do is pray for wisdom for those deeply impacted by both.  May God grant us all great patience and understanding so as to make the right decisions and have the means to help our neighbor, brother, parent or child in need.

Tornadoes, Floods, Fires and Drought: 2007 and 2008?

Having witnessed the devastating effects of numerous kinds of natural disasters, I can say that regardless of the way in which nature vents her fury, man’s edifices don’t fare well.  In a matter of a few weeks last spring, I surveyed the damage done by tornadoes in three separate places.  The only thing different with each situation was the location.  In each case, the physical damage and mental anguish was identical regardless of the community.

A tornado, more than any other meteorological event, is unique in its compact yet incredibly destructive character.  Even the largest tornadoes on record rarely are greater than one mile in width.  From that perspective, a tornado is an exceedingly small force.  Although a tornado is compact, it is ferocious and tenacious.  A tornado doesn’t come close to impacting as many people as a hurricane; but those it does impact suffer more violent damage than most people who endure hurricanes ever have to deal with.

It is interesting to note that next to sustained winds over 100 mph and the storm surge; the thing most to be feared with a hurricane coming ashore are the tornadoes that many times erupt near the eye wall of major hurricanes.  No one can definitively say for sure, but it was estimated that there could have been 50 or more tornadoes accompanying both hurricanes Katrina and Rita ashore back in 2005.  Local people who lived through both of those hurricanes claim there were hundreds of tornadoes but the weather experts deny that is possible. 

Regardless of how many actual tornadoes happened; the damage on the ground would indicate there were multiple tornadoes touching down for short periods of time in multiple locations.  Even after a hurricane hits, the damage caused by a tornado will still be unique.  Talking to people who were huddled in their homes or in shelters while those storms roared by, many of them described sounds and sensations tornado victims always speak about.  Personally, I believe there is much not understood in the realm of tornadoes associated with land falling hurricanes.

This past week as I was driving up I-44 toward St. Louis from Springfield, I happened to look out the window and saw where a small tornado had hit a two weeks ago.  There were the always present blue tarps hiding roof damage on numerous homes.  There were piles of rubble where barns stood previously.  Somewhere in the path of damage was a family suffering with the unexpected loss of a loved one who was killed by the tornado.

Just a couple of weeks ago we basked in 70 degree warmth for a few days here in Missouri.  Sure enough, when a strong cold front came roaring through, the first tornado watches of 2008 were posted and Missouri had the distinction of having watch number one for the year.  January tornadoes are very rare anywhere in the United States, but extremely rare in Missouri.  Even so, when the watches and warnings started flying, I knew we would be in for a long evening.

A wise person can decide not to build a home near the Gulf or Atlantic coastlines; thus eliminating the possibility of a hurricane destroying the home.  A wise person can decide not to live on top of a fault line and thus avoid earthquake damage.  A wise person can decide not to live on the side of a mountain thus avoiding forest fires and mudslides.  A wise person can decide not to live on the banks of a river or stream, so as to avoid the inevitable flooding all moving bodies of water experience.

Yes, a wise person can decide to live in a location immune from many natural disasters, but not tornadoes.  Just about anywhere is a prime location for a tornado to hit.  Certainly “tornado alley” in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are more prone to twisters than say Idaho; but other than living on top of Pike’s Peak, nowhere is immune from the possibility of a tornado happening.  Where exactly is one supposed to live if they are sincerely desirous of escaping nature’s wrath?  About the only place might be Vermont, but even that state has its share of wild winter weather events.

Far too many times, the attitude shown toward those whose lives were uprooted by a tornado is that they did something wrong by living where they chose to live.  Nowhere is this ridiculous attitude more prevalent than towards those living in the middle of the country.  “Who wants to live in Kansas” was the refrain I heard for years when people heard I grew up in the state.  All Kansas used to be known for was tornadoes, Indians, Dorothy and Toto, wheat and endless treeless flat land.  Now at least it is also known for basketball and football teams.

When the unprecedented tornado wiped the town of Greensburg, Kansas off the map last spring, there was an outpouring of concern in this country that was unique and inspiring.  For the first time, people wanted to help after a Kansas tornado tragedy instead of criticizing the victims for living in the wrong state.  For the first time, the United States of America really got behind the cause of rebuilding a tornado devastated city in Kansas.  For the first time, America proved what it could do when it sets its preconceived prejudices aside and rallies to help a city in Kansas.

Unfortunately, what happened in Greensburg was not duplicated in numerous other areas severely impacted by last spring’s disastrous tornado season.  Many more populated places than normal were devastated by major tornadoes or tornado outbreaks last year.  Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, New Mexico, Indiana and Kentucky are just some of the states which suffered catastrophic tornado damage last year.  Americans have extremely short memories.  Most have long forgotten the horrible tornadoes that plowed through Alabama and Georgia last March, including the one that killed numerous high school students in Enterprise, Alabama.

Last year, in addition to the outrageous tornado outbreaks, there were abnormally high numbers of both flash floods as well as regular floods reported.  Historic flooding took place in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.  Major flooding took place in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, Kentucky and many New England states.  The cost to repair flood damage was enormous.  Yet, floods never capture the public’s attention because they are not as dramatic as piles of rubble after a huge tornado or hurricane.

While parts of the country were enduring record floods, other parts were suffering through unprecedented drought.  The states of Georgia, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky and Virginia all experienced record breaking drought that in many locales still is going on.  Last spring, before the summer rains helped, Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida had reached record low levels.  Last spring, fires raged in the swamps of southern Georgia sending dense smoke through much of the northern half of Florida.

Last summer, horrific forest fires raced down the dry canyons outside San Diego and Los Angeles, California destroying thousands of homes in the process.  Again, in October a second fire almost burned Malibu off the map.  Also last summer, huge fires burned unchecked for months in Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington.  Although summer fires happen almost every year in the western states; the decade long drought has made them worse than they used to be.

Early this winter a series of storms pounded the coastline of Washington and Oregon with winds normally associated with a category 2 hurricane.  The damage was also roughly equivalent to a hurricane.  Millions of people were without power for long periods of time between Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington.  Within a week, the entire middle part of the country was paralyzed with an ice storm never seen before.  Oklahoma was especially devastated by so much ice, it took the power companies weeks to get everyone’s electricity back on. 

Although it turned out to be another very quiet hurricane season (as far as the United States coastline), there was still one small hurricane that made land fall in almost the exact same place as Hurricane Rita did in 2005.  The area was still recovering from Rita, so the damage was worse than would normally be expected with a category 1 hurricane.  Even twenty-four hours before land fall, there were no warnings and no one expected the storm to blow up as it did immediately before hitting land.

2007 was a very active year weather-wise in this country.  If the average American were asked if the weather was “wild” the past year, most would shrug their shoulders and say they didn’t know.  This is because there was little wild weather in the populated northeast part of the country.  Even though there was a tornado that hopped through New York City; most people there would no longer remember it unless their house was damaged.   In the absence of a huge hurricane, blizzard, ice storm or terrorist attack; the people in the Northeast cannot relate to the suffering experienced elsewhere in this country.

Images of demolished buildings in Kansas, ice on broken trees in Oklahoma, rivers swallowing up whole cities in Texas, entire towns blown away by a tornado in North Dakota, blackened hills and charred ruins where houses once stood in California and dried up lakes in Florida mean little to millions of people whose only daily concern is fighting traffic and seeing if their sports team won or lost.  I hate to say it, but until a major natural disaster strikes the populated areas of the East Coast again; most people there will have little compassion for those suffering elsewhere in this country.

Whatever wonderful things come out of the Greensburg, Kansas tornado tragedy, I hope and pray they do not end there.  I pray that anytime a community in this country is devastated by a force of nature, images will emerge quickly and be plastered on the Internet.  I pray the major news organizations devote at least some of their precious newscasts to the plight of people whose entire lives were just turned upside down by earthquakes, wind storms and forest fires.  I pray the major charitable organizations respond as quickly and in force as they did in Greensburg.  I pray the average American is aroused by the images of destruction and suffering and finds within himself the motivation to help those in need either financially or by volunteering to help clean up or rebuild.

It is hard for someone to understand what a person goes through when they lose everything they have worked a lifetime to gain.  It is hard for others to grasp the unbelievable suffering that is associated with the loss of one’s home, its contents and especially a loved one.  It is hard to comprehend the scope of a disaster that may affect upwards of a million people or more.  It is hard to capture the hardships people must endure who have no electricity or water.  It is hard to experience all these things unless you have seen, heard and been through it yourself.   

This past year more Americans than ever before got a taste of disaster relief, for they found themselves in the middle of one.  I sincerely pray that as nature once again starts unleashing her fury in the coming months that we remember to help and pray for those who through no fault of their own, found themselves in a natural disaster’s path.  After all, that is what America is supposed to be all about; neighbor helping neighbor and everyone helping anyone who needs it.     

Wind, Fire and Water; Nature vs. Irresponsible Humans

Numerous stories have bombarded all news media recently dealing with weather.  Funny how such a huge subject is rarely featured in the news unless there is either a hidden agenda or something profound takes place in a major television market.  I am sorry to be cynical, but I have studied weather and enjoyed making amateur forecasts for years.  Weather is not something that fills the gap between news and sports for some of us.

There ARE some absolutely huge weather related situations going on and I feel it necessary to balance the hype with some sobering truths.  If “global warming” or “climate change” were taken out of all the stories floating around, and just the facts regarding the situations were presented; there would still be plenty of news to get good ratings.  But, the current trend is to somehow tie every single weird weather event into the global warming debate.  This is not fair nor can the facts sustain doing this.

Many years ago I lived in California for two years.  The first year (1976-77) there was “the worst drought in the history of the state”.  The news featured stories of dried up reservoirs and mountains with no snow.  Restaurants could only serve water if requested and all the lush green lawns were brown due to watering restrictions.  This was not last week, this was thirty years ago. 

The second year (1977-78) ended up being one of the wettest and snowiest on record.  I shall never forget driving down to California from Oregon and seeing a huge reservoir that was woefully low one year earlier filled to capacity because of all the precipitation.  One year the ski resorts were crying they were about to go out of business, and the next year they had so much snow people couldn’t drive up to ski.  The winter of 1977-78 nationwide was one of the worst winters in history.  The headlines everywhere warned of the coming “ice age”.

I do not wish to belittle the horrible tragedy that happened in San Diego and other southern California locations with the wildfires.  But, there have been Santa Ana winds for ages.  After dry winters, there have been major fires when there were intense Santa Ana winds.   Certain things are just to be expected if one chooses to live in the California “paradise”; fires, earthquakes, mudslides, droughts, floods and an occasional Santa Ana windstorm.

In 1970 the population of San Diego was 696,769 and for the county it was 1,357,854.  In just 30 years, by the year 2000; the city of San Diego’s population had doubled to 1,256,951 and the county had more than doubled to 2,813,833.  When an area undergoes this kind of rapid population growth, there are bound to be environmental problems.  Without a doubt, the biggest problem comes in moving more and more people farther and farther out into areas that had been “wilderness” previously.  When asphalt and cement replace dirt and vegetation, there is bound to be some problems come up.

In an average year, the coastal portion of San Diego receives about 10 inches of rain.  The coastal mountains to the east of the city usually receive substantially more rain in an average year.  Last year (2006-2007), San Diego received 3.85 inches of rain which was only 36% of normal.  What is worse, the mountains did not receive much more than the city. 

The additional factor causing the fire situation to be so critical was the humidity levels at or below 10%.  When there is no humidity, vegetation is dried out, winds barrel in approaching 100 miles per hour; all it takes is one smoldering cigarette butt or a careless spark from a welder and the inferno begins.  There is no stopping, or even slowing down, a fire with plenty of dry fuel and winds of hurricane velocity.

Earlier this summer fires burned out of control in Idaho and Montana for weeks.  The same scenario resulted in the same results.  The big difference was the lack of population and the corresponding lack of property damage.  The fires in southern California will end up costing hundreds of millions of dollars.  Amazingly, this is about the same amount as if a category 2 hurricane hit the area.  Seeing images of burned homes is heartbreaking, but it is no different than seeing images of homes destroyed by tornados, hurricanes or earthquakes.  A destroyed home is a disaster no matter how it happened.

People who insist upon living in areas prone to natural disasters MUST accept the responsibility of potential loss.  Anyone living next to the ocean cannot expect someone else to pay to rebuild their home after a huge storm or tsunami.  Anyone living on a fault line cannot expect someone else to pay to rebuild their destroyed home when it is finally ruined by the “big one”.  People who want to live in high risk areas need to have insurance to cover potential losses; no matter how much it costs.  It is not fair to expect the government or private charities to always rebuild after a major disaster.

Southern California is a high risk area, especially parts near what’s left of the forested mountains.  People who want to live in areas prone to fires (and later mudslides) should have to use materials in building that are fire retardant and do things to set up natural firebreaks around their homes.  Our society is not very good at taking personal responsibility for much of anything, especially where homes are built and how they are built.

The frightening part of this whole discussion lies in the potential for identical fires in the future.  Many of the areas hit hardest this week in the Malibu area were just devastated by major fires a few weeks ago.  Many areas that were burned a few weeks ago were just starting to recover from serious fires only a few years ago.  Unfortunately, these same areas will continue to face fire dangers every year after a dry winter.  It just goes with the territory, literally.

The bigger issue in all this lies in the upcoming water crisis.  That subject is far too involved to get into at this time, but I will address it soon.  I think if people understood how serious the water situation is, they would quit being so afraid of many other doomsday scenarios.   There is only so much fresh water available and when it is gone, it is gone until the next big rainstorm.  Water has been squandered more than any other natural resource, and very soon humanity will pay dearly for wasting one of the two things needed for life.  Without air and water people cannot live.  Both of these things have been polluted and squandered mercilessly. 

I sincerely hope and pray that people who know little about the weather don’t get distracted from the real issues environmentally, which are pollution and inexcusable wasting of natural resources.  Whether the climate is changing as radically as many are saying now, cannot be proven conclusively by anyone.  What can be proven is that there has been a rash of strange weather events in the past year.  Something is causing the weather to “misbehave”, and that much is for certain.  Whether the root cause is global warming, natural earth cycles or solar issues; something is causing the weather to change in a radical fashion.

Rather than make weather a political toy, people should be seeking answers on  how to preserve and steward what we have left.  This is the issue that needs to be debated and publicized, not just scaring people with wild projections which are based on computer models and speculation.  Instead of worrying about melting icecaps, why not figure out how to capture the water and store it for the future.  Instead of pointing fingers at everyone else concerning emissions and other minor things; why not be working feverishly to harness the sun’s power, desalt the oceans and figure out how to fit the billions of people on this earth into the parts of this planet capable of sustaining life.  We can help this earth if we will not turn the entire subject into just another political football.