These are times that are trying many souls

Over the course of the past year or so, we have witnessed catastrophic earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, New Zealand and Japan.  We have seen a tsunami suddenly kill thousands of people and cause turmoil and anxiety even unto this present hour due to the problems at a nuclear power plant in Japan.  We have seen volcanoes erupt in Iceland and ice storms in places that rarely see them.  Through it all, the United States of America was basically unscathed.

Over the past few weeks, the forces of nature have unleashed their fury upon the very heart of America.  Through wildfires burning in Texas, flooding along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and the current incredible outbreak of tornadoes; there is no longer any feeling of invincibility in this land.  As if the current situation were not bad enough, a very active hurricane season looms just ahead.

In due time, all the damage being done by all these natural disasters will act as a financial stimulus as people will find jobs rebuilding houses, businesses, churches and other facilities.  But, in the short term, the current situation is too much for many to bear.  Losing one’s home or business is a traumatic experience that leaves deep scars in someone’s hearts for years to come.  Obviously there are many hurting people around right now.

The frustration people go through dealing with insurance companies, government agencies, financial institutions and employers is hard to understand unless a person has lived through a major disaster or worked with those who have.  People can talk about “trusting God” all they want, but when your home is a pile of debris, your place of employment is demolished and your creditors want payments NOW; the pressure many times literally breaks people and demolishes families.

In 2006 I took a very long and difficult trip to Cameron, a little town on the coast of southwestern Louisiana, which had been utterly destroyed by hurricane Rita the previous year.  The area was a ghost town as it had been literally forgotten due to most of the emphasis being placed on Katrina damage.  As I trudged through the sand looking at the destruction I came upon a few very haggard people hanging around a white tent.

When I inquired as to what was going on, I was told of how there used to be a church ministry that brought food to that tent twice a week but had run out of resources and had to stop.  My heart ached for these poor people who received no aid from FEMA, the Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other group except one lonely ministry who could no longer find the resources to get food to them.

I was not able to do much but the pictures I took of the people and their plight did make their way to some agencies which in due time were able to get some resources down there.  The town had literally fallen through the cracks due to all the other needs.

As people attempt to put their lives back together in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Virginia; I pray that those of us unaffected by the current onslaught of floods and tornadoes remember those whose lives have been turned upside down.

These are very troubled and turbulent times and many of our brothers and sisters are hurting right now.  If ever they needed a friend to lend them a hand or a shoulder to cry on it is NOW.  If there was ever a time to redouble our prayers and “stand in the gap” it is NOW.  If there was ever a time to intercede on behalf of those who are struggling to stay sane and alive, it is NOW.  Truly this is a time to pray for and reach out to all those engaged in the worst battles of their lives.

There is plenty to be nervous about

I would not say that I am afraid, for I am not; but I will readily admit that the incredible things happening with the weather and economy make me very nervous.  There is a huge difference between being afraid and being nervous.  One is counterproductive and the other is the natural reaction to uneasy situations.

Just four years ago I would have been working 20 hours per day finding relief supplies for tornado victims in the St. Louis area and flooding victims in southern Missouri.  I know my days of trying to “save the world” after every disaster ended some time ago, but I am still deeply impacted as I see images of destruction and hear reports of catastrophic flooding soon to cause untold problems in many areas.  Throw into the mix some of the worst wildfires Texas has ever seen and you have a truly troubling situation building.

I study weather and I have seen from multiple sources that the upcoming month of May will be MUCH COOLER than normal throughout much of the USA except along the Gulf coast.  The last two times this happened were 2005 and 2008 which were years that produced hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma; and 2008 which produced hurricanes Gustov and Ike.  Many experts are already warning of the imminent possibility of multiple strikes by huge hurricanes along the United States coastline this summer.

For a very long time I used to study and try to understand economic concerns.  What is currently happening is so distressing that I no longer have the desire to try and figure out what is happening and about to happen.  Contrary to what media outlets are saying, there is a period of hyper-inflation just around the next bend.  We are already seeing it in the constantly rising prices for gasoline and food.

It is estimated that nearly 15% of all Americans have had to raid their retirement accounts to find resources for emergencies.  I know this is true for I am one of those 15% and am not proud of it.  But, when all other sources of income are removed, and expenses pile up; there is no place left to go but to the IRA or 401k that was supposed to provide income for 25 years or more after retirement.

Recent studies have indicated that the housing market for super expensive properties is rebounding and doing fine.  Those with plenty of money are spending it on lavish homes that cost well over a million dollars.  Those homes in foreclosure are also being purchased by people with money and then rented out to desperate people who have lost their homes.

Meanwhile those homes in the $100,000 to $600,000 range just sit there.  No one qualifies for a loan and no one has the money to pay the huge down payment to move up or down.  Most of us live in these kinds of homes and are stuck in them for many years to come.

I cannot do nothing about the weather or the economy so all I can do is pray for wisdom for those deeply impacted by both.  May God grant us all great patience and understanding so as to make the right decisions and have the means to help our neighbor, brother, parent or child in need.

Ike and Wall Street; 2 Days, 2 Places, 2 Equally Devasting Storms

This just in–water is available in Liverpool, 30 miles from Galveston!

In less than 72 hours, two hurricanes slammed into America. The first one hit Friday night at Galveston, Texas. The second one hit in New York on Monday. In both cases, millions of people were dramatically affected by the storm and hundreds of thousands were devastated by the storm surge.

When Ike hit, everyone knew he was coming and had days to either leave or prepare to stay. If staying, provisions had to be obtained which would allow survival for days if not weeks. If leaving, a place to go had to be established as well as the means necessary to get there and stay for as long as needed. There was no way of knowing ahead of time how bad the storm would be or how long life would be disrupted.

The storm which hit Wall Street on Monday was not unexpected. Watches had been posted on Friday and warnings were flying on Sunday. The actual storm which hit yesterday was intense and for those who never prepared for it, devastating. Even today, there is no way to know if the storm which hit the markets yesterday was a category 1 or a category 5.

The general effects of Ike were felt by millions of people in Texas and Louisiana. At this time, there are still millions without electricity, very few gasoline stations opened, long lines at distribution centers to obtain water and ice and nowhere to find food and other supplies. There are still vast areas unreached by rescue personnel and only now is the true strength of Ike being seen in places wiped off the face of the map by the storm.

The general effects of the storm on Wall Street yesterday were felt all through the economy by anyone owning stocks in a mutual fund, IRA or investment package. With the general loss of around 4%, everyone in the country who invests in the stock market found themselves 4% poorer at the end of the day than at the start. Whereas the vast majority of people will simply “weather the storm” and hopefully see their portfolio bounce back later; for some, yesterday was equivalent to living in West Galveston.

Ike slammed ashore Friday night. By Saturday night Ike’s remnants were pounding Arkansas with deadly tornadoes and flooding rains. By Sunday, Ike was swamping St. Louis, Missouri with worse flooding than in the great 1993 flood. Chicago, Illinois was inundated with upwards of 9 inches of rain and major flooding was occurring throughout the city. Places in Indiana and Ohio received hurricane force winds, doing in some cases as much damage as in parts of Houston. Truly Ike’s power was felt thousands of miles away from his epicenter.

People who do not even own stocks will feel the effects of the storm which hit Wall Street yesterday. As everyone’s money tightens, they are less willing and able to buy things and give to charities. The ripple effect of so many people losing so much money in one day will be felt from the retailers to the Salvation Army. In fact, the effects could produce more problems than just the obvious loss of worth felt by those owning stocks.

Where Ike came ashore, the damage is unimaginable. Only yesterday did rescue crews finally make it to “ground zero”. Just as in any major hurricane, the damage exceeded anyone’s expectations. Where the storm surge was greatest, there is nothing left of what once was houses, businesses, churches and schools. The surge came in and took out everything in its path. Those silly enough to have dared defy the power of nature paid the ultimate price, whether they ever officially are counted as a fatality or not.

Those either working for Lehman Brothers stock or who worked for the company were at ground zero of the storm yesterday. An associate of mine who works a block from the building that housed Lehman Brothers, said the line of workers stretched for blocks as they waited to enter and clean out their desks. All these people had jobs Friday and come Monday they were unemployed. Those who owned stock in Lehman found their “investment” worth 18 cents by Monday afternoon. Truly anyone closely involved with the company had the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane go over their house.

This week will determine how much of the rest of this fall will go both in Ike effected areas as well as the stock markets. Depending on what the Fed does today, they may opt for a “quick fix” by way of lowering interest rates to stimulate more borrowing at the expense of the dollar, or may continue their hands off policy and allow the markets to naturally shake down. Depending on what they decide, Wall Street will either rally or tank; and the effects on the economy will flow behind.

This week is the week when either Ike victims start to see genuine disaster relief or we find yet another gigantic FEMA boondoggle. So far, using the government’s socialistic approach to relief, those who have deeply affected by Ike remain in a state of hunger, thirst and growing frustration. I will save my scathing editorial opinions of FEMA for another post; but suffice it to say, I am not a big fan of the government hijacking the disaster relief and recovery operations away from the private sector. I fear that is exactly what is happening in the economic sector even as I write this.

Hanna and Ike; Condition Critical for Carolina’s and Northeast

As usual, there is massive disagreement among the hurricane experts concerning what will happen with Hanna and Ike. Few hurricanes have taken the kind of beating Hanna has taken and live to tell about it. Hanna has, as the old “Timex” commercial said; taken a licking and keeps on ticking.

I agree with most forecasters that there is no basis to believe Hanna is finished. To the contrary, as conditions improve for development today and tonight, the storm should gradually regain hurricane status and start moving north, FAR EAST of Florida. Most top experts are now moving Hanna’s landfall a little further east toward the Wilmington, North Carolina area.

Very few storms could endure the kind of wind shear Hanna dealt with yesterday without totally falling apart. Although weakened, Hanna has “hung in there” and is now ready to tap into nearly perfect conditions for development. I am sorry to be redundant, but it is vitally important for those living anywhere between Charleston, South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina to not take this storm lightly.

Far too much emphasis is placed on the wind speeds of hurricanes. Tropical Storm Fay recently showed that just as much damage can be done by a very slow moving and wet tropical storm as a fast moving category 1 or weak category 2 hurricane. People tend to forget that when an area is inundated with 15 to 20 inches of rain, not only does the area flood, but the ground gets so saturated huge trees topple with only 50 mph winds. Just ask former President Carter about this, for Fay caused a huge tree to fall on his Georgia home.

There are two major concerns this morning. First is the looming possibility that Hanna will make landfall as a strengthening hurricane as opposed to a dying one. Gustov hit as a weakening hurricane as did that last great Carolina hurricane Floyd. Andrew hit southern Florida years ago as a strengthening hurricane of probable category 5 strength. Charley hit the west coast of Florida as a rapidly strengthening storm. In both cases the damage was greatly magnified by the fact the storm was gaining strength as it hit land.

The second concern is that if Hanna is still gaining strength and hits farther east in North Carolina, she may end up retaining hurricane status into Virginia and become one of the East Coast Hurricanes which pose grave danger to the major population centers from Washington to Boston. Many have spoken and written of the potential catastrophic damage which could occur if a major hurricane struck either the Chesapeake Bay area or New York.

It has been a number of years since there were a true major hurricane strike these areas. Again, the concern should not just be wind; storm surge and flooding rains would be the much bigger headache. Some of the worst flooding events in history in states such as Pennsylvania and New York have come from just the remnants of huge hurricanes which hit the Gulf Coast or Mid Atlantic coastline and then lingered over the Northeast.

The remnants of Gustov are inundating Arkansas right now with what will surely be major flooding. Even up here is St. Louis where I live there are flood warnings in effect for the next three days as the heavy rain associated with what is left of a once great hurricane slowly move over the region. Flooding actually causes as much or more damage than wind except in a comparatively small area near where a hurricane hits.

The threat from Hanna is that it could hit as an intensifying category 3 hurricane and inflict major damage along the coastline. Equally great is the threat for massive flooding not only in the Carolina’s but Virginia and points north and east. There is also the threat Hanna could get back over the ocean and redevelop again into a hurricane which would impact New York and New England.

Ike is presenting forecasters with nothing but headaches. There seems to be no universal conscientious among the models or forecasters as to where Ike will go once it gets to the Bahamas. There appears to be equal probability of it going into the Gulf of Mexico (watch out New Orleans), Florida (watch out Miami and points north) or along the Hanna’s path (watch out Carolina’s and points north).

Obviously two of these scenarios would be horrible. If another major hurricane churned toward New Orleans next week, the entire scene would be horrific based on what just happened with Gustov. Worse yet would be back to back hits by Hanna and Ike in North Carolina and Virginia. Again, in this scenario, the problem is massive and catastrophic flooding of huge areas inundated by incredible amounts of rain falling within a week’s period of time.

It goes without saying that starting Friday night or Saturday morning when Hanna strikes through next week when Ike strikes somewhere; there is going to be multitudes of hurting, scared and frustrated people in the United States. Those who end up being directly impacted by these storms could care less about politics, sports and the stock market. Those whose lives are turned upside down by hurricane force winds or flooding rains are only interested in survival.

Please keep the millions of who will be facing extremely difficult times the next two weeks in your prayers. Also, please keep the poor people of Haiti in your prayers. Hanna has dumped copious amounts of rain on a country already drenched by Gustov. The humanitarian crisis in that country is beyond description. Thank you for reading and I will write more as the situation evolves today and tomorrow.

Fires, Floods and Fears of Hurricanes; Disaster Update 7/1/08

FIRES

As of early this morning, over 1,400 fires were burning in California with no relief in sight.  Many of these fires have been burning for over a week with new ones starting daily.  With the weather forecast calling for a chance of more dry lightning, there is a crisis of epic proportions brewing in paradise.  Even now, there are air quality warnings in effect for much of the Bay area as the smoke from fires settles over the area.  The fire near Big Sur may prove to be especially devastating due to the loss of tourism during the normally busy summer. 

Every tanker used to fight wildfires in the United States is currently in use in California.  This is very troubling since the fire season usually doesn’t peak until the end of July and first of August.  This summer could end up being one of the most physically and financially taxing in many years.  President Bush has already declared California a disaster area and thus eligible for federal help.

FLOODS

Now that the levee has broken at Winfield, Missouri, the flood of ‘08 will be hard pressed to keep its position at the top of the headlines.  As the rivers slowly fall and the extent of the devastation in Iowa, Indiana and Illinois (along with Missouri) begins to be apparent; the full scope of this disaster will shock anyone with eyes to see.  Unlike tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes; flooding generally does not physically destroy buildings.  Floods creep in, do their dirty work and sneak out.  The damage done by floods is not seen looking at a dwelling from the outside.  The damage is internal.

Not only does furniture and other personal effects need to be replaced after a flood; of much greater importance is the replacing of ruined carpet and drywall.  If said items are not replaced, there is almost a dead certainty of black mold growing.  One of the problems with a major flood along a river a wide as the Mississippi is how long it takes for the flood waters to recede.  In flash flooding, the water comes up and goes down quickly.  In major river flooding it take a long time for both the water to rise above flood stage as well as to drop below it.

FEARS OF HURRICANES

The hurricane season has completed its first month with only one very minor named storm.  Is this unusual?  Not at all would be the correct answer.  Although not unheard of to have a hurricane in June, it is very rare.  The components needed to develop and grow a storm into hurricane strength are usually not there in June.  July is when the various pieces of the hurricane development puzzle start coming together and August through September is usually when the greatest threat of hurricanes striking the United States exists.

Those entrusted with trying to see what the next few months hold are very concerned about the potential for at least one major hurricane hitting the East Coast of the United States.  Most experts are expecting at least one direct hit and possibly two or three by the time the season winds down in October.  Areas from Texas to Florida should be ready to deal with potential development by mid-July and North Carolina and points north by August.  This is NOT  a year to take the hurricane threat lightly.

CONCLUSION

This has been an exceptionally difficult year for states such as Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana.  Many of these states have been hit with repeated disasters starting with ice in December and continuing to the present flooding and violent storm damage.  Missouri saw horrific flooding in the southern part of the state this spring and now has seen disastrous flooding along the Mississippi River in the northeast part of the state.  So far, the only silver lining has been that the Missouri River has not reached levels anywhere near the floods of 1993 and 1995. 

Iowa was buried with record snows this past winter and then inundated with incredible storms this spring and early summer.  It is no wonder that when areas were hit with a half foot of rain a few weeks ago, the inevitable result would be massive flooding.  Earlier this year Arkansas was hit repeatedly with deadly tornadoes which claimed many lives and caused extraordinary damage.  Also this spring the major rivers in Arkansas reached historic levels and caused extensive damage.

HOW YOU CAN HELP

It has been a rough year for middle America and the year is only half over.  Although the emphasis now switches to the western fires and potential hurricanes in the southern and eastern United States; I pray all remember the all those who will still be suffering in middle America when the rest of country sits down to Thanksgiving dinner.  It takes time to recover from tornadoes and floods even when on a small scale.  It takes “forever” to recover from repeated disasters impacting thousands upon thousands of people covering almost one third of this country.

I am sure those who have lost everything to storms and floods would greatly appreciate your prayers and any help that you could send via your favorite charity.  Many groups are working as hard as they can to help as many as possible.  They are all spread very thin and have pretty much exhausted their resources.  If you want to help, please contact the American Red Cross, Salvation Army or numerous small independent charities working I disaster areas.