These are times that are trying many souls

Over the course of the past year or so, we have witnessed catastrophic earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, New Zealand and Japan.  We have seen a tsunami suddenly kill thousands of people and cause turmoil and anxiety even unto this present hour due to the problems at a nuclear power plant in Japan.  We have seen volcanoes erupt in Iceland and ice storms in places that rarely see them.  Through it all, the United States of America was basically unscathed.

Over the past few weeks, the forces of nature have unleashed their fury upon the very heart of America.  Through wildfires burning in Texas, flooding along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and the current incredible outbreak of tornadoes; there is no longer any feeling of invincibility in this land.  As if the current situation were not bad enough, a very active hurricane season looms just ahead.

In due time, all the damage being done by all these natural disasters will act as a financial stimulus as people will find jobs rebuilding houses, businesses, churches and other facilities.  But, in the short term, the current situation is too much for many to bear.  Losing one’s home or business is a traumatic experience that leaves deep scars in someone’s hearts for years to come.  Obviously there are many hurting people around right now.

The frustration people go through dealing with insurance companies, government agencies, financial institutions and employers is hard to understand unless a person has lived through a major disaster or worked with those who have.  People can talk about “trusting God” all they want, but when your home is a pile of debris, your place of employment is demolished and your creditors want payments NOW; the pressure many times literally breaks people and demolishes families.

In 2006 I took a very long and difficult trip to Cameron, a little town on the coast of southwestern Louisiana, which had been utterly destroyed by hurricane Rita the previous year.  The area was a ghost town as it had been literally forgotten due to most of the emphasis being placed on Katrina damage.  As I trudged through the sand looking at the destruction I came upon a few very haggard people hanging around a white tent.

When I inquired as to what was going on, I was told of how there used to be a church ministry that brought food to that tent twice a week but had run out of resources and had to stop.  My heart ached for these poor people who received no aid from FEMA, the Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other group except one lonely ministry who could no longer find the resources to get food to them.

I was not able to do much but the pictures I took of the people and their plight did make their way to some agencies which in due time were able to get some resources down there.  The town had literally fallen through the cracks due to all the other needs.

As people attempt to put their lives back together in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Virginia; I pray that those of us unaffected by the current onslaught of floods and tornadoes remember those whose lives have been turned upside down.

These are very troubled and turbulent times and many of our brothers and sisters are hurting right now.  If ever they needed a friend to lend them a hand or a shoulder to cry on it is NOW.  If there was ever a time to redouble our prayers and “stand in the gap” it is NOW.  If there was ever a time to intercede on behalf of those who are struggling to stay sane and alive, it is NOW.  Truly this is a time to pray for and reach out to all those engaged in the worst battles of their lives.

McCain and Obama both vote FOR Big Money Interests, now we know for sure who OWNS them both

So, here we are, many days after the initial bombshells were dropped warning us of impending doom if the “bailout” package were not passed. In those many days, we have seen the Stock Market go down, then go up, then go down and then go up and then hold steady. What we have not seen is the “end of the world” as we know it.

The United States Senate’s sanctimonious action in passing the insane excuse for an “economic recovery” package proves once and for all that the interests of most elected officials is only in getting re-elected and not in either serving their people or standing upon the Constitution. I applaud the one fourth of voting Senators who had the “guts” to stand their ground and vote their conscience instead of as one of our illustrious Senators from Missouri said; “hold my nose and vote yea”.

If I could sell my house and pack everything up and move, there is no doubt I would head to Alabama, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi or Wyoming. Why on earth would anyone want to move to one of these states? These are the only five states where BOTH Senators voted against the Senate Bailout bill.

It is interesting to note that of the 25 Senators who voted “No”; 15 were Republicans, 9 were Democrats and 1 was an Independent. Also interesting is to see the regional breakdown. The only Senator from the Northeast part of the country to vote “No” was the Independent from Vermont. Surprisingly, there were 7 Senators from the western states who voted “No”. To be expected, there were 8 from Midwestern states and 9 from southern states who voted “No”.

Just as in the House vote on Monday, the legislators who oppose the idea of a massive Federal bailout of the banking industry cross party lines and run the full spectrum from the far left to the far right politically. What is very interesting to note is that unlike in the House, where every representative is up for re-election in a month, two thirds of the Senators are not up re-election this cycle.

There is little argument that vast majority of citizens in the United States do not want this bill passed in any way, shape or form. The House members got this message loud and clear from their constituents and that is why the measure failed. All House members must now go through a second round of soul searching to see if they will vote for the approved Senate measure. It will be interesting to see how many of them have the “guts” to stick to their ideals and how many will cave in to the pressure put on them by the President and party leaders in the House.

What choice do we really have in the Presidential election next month? Both Senator’s McCain and Obama along with Sen. Biden all voted “YES” to the bailout bill. Gov. Palin has voiced strong support for the measure. So, when it comes to listening to “We the People” or to their Illuminati or Bilderberg Group bosses—both candidates made it perfectly clear they are controlled by the same powerful money people the current President is sold out to.

Those naïve enough to think either McCain or Obama are anything other than the latest puppets and “yes men” chosen and ordained by those who really run this country and world are sadly mistaken. It makes absolutely NO DIFFERENCE who wins the election next month. Whether McCain or Obama, both will continue to sell this country down the river to the interests of those sitting in high places who are only interested in unbridled power and stealing every dollar left in the pockets of the American public.

The agenda of those who really run things is perfectly clear and it does not include anything that will benefit YOU or ME in the long run. Ultimately this country will fall and become nothing but a seething melting pot of angry and beaten down people who stumble around wondering where all their wealth and resources went. Ultimately, once the government takes over all the banking industry and owns the mortgages to all the real estate and has loans extended to every major corporation; then, at last, the silly silent majority of people in this country who sat back and allowed their elected officials to destroy their financial future will awaken. Unfortunately, by then it will be too late.

Hurricane Kyle (?), Ike Relief and Recovery, Lack of Media Attetion and General Needs

Why the storm buffeting North Carolina with hurricane force winds is not named is a mystery known only to the government agency which is responsible for such things. If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it probably is a duck. It is quite fascinating to have warnings issued for hurricane force winds (for a coastal area) and there not even be a tropical storm.

The next storm, once it finally gets moving will head due north and probably pay Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine a visit. These areas are prone to minor hurricanes, and that is what this storm (Kyle whenever named) will probably be.

The next three weeks should provide some interesting developmental opportunities for new storms. Where these storms form and hit along with their timing is at the moment pure speculation. The point is that meteorologically, the conditions are very similar to when we saw Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike form in rapid fire succession.

The fear among many who look at and study weather is that no matter what might happen, it will be a minor story due to the big “save the economy” news out of Washington. The horrible situation in Texas and Louisiana has already fallen victim to bigger and greater news. Any legitimate threat of an approaching storm would surely suffer the same fate.

The worst time to be struck by a hurricane is the final month of a Presidential campaign that is being hotly contested. Add in the historic events happening with the economy this year and what has happened with post-Ike media coverage will be the norm for future storms.

I was speaking with an associate who continues to help those devastated by Hurricane Katrina the other day. I told this person that if “Katrina #2” did indeed strike the central Gulf Coast this fall, not to expect even 20% of the new coverage, let alone the offers to help that came after Katrina. The will and ability of Americans is just not there to help like they did three years ago.

Isn’t it amazing how those who need help the most receive the least? There are precious few news stories coming out of Ike affected areas, and those that are done are always about Galveston. All the other areas of the coast from Beaumont, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana receive ZERO attention. It is these areas where just like after Katrina and Rita three years ago, hundreds and thousands of people will “fall through the cracks” and be left to fend for themselves.

I feel badly for anyone who lost their home or had it badly damaged by Gustov or Ike. But my heart aches for those who lost their home or had it badly damaged and to this date, no one knows about it. Those who somehow fall through the cracks and receive no aid from FEMA, Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other government or private organization are the people I care most about.

Mainly senior citizens or those with disabilities, the people who fall through the cracks after a hurricane are usually the same ones who fall through the cracks every day of the week. These situations present very difficult cases for those who try and help people on a daily basis. Yet, if someone does not at least try to locate and extend to these people the offer of help; they will suffer the most after a storm.

Yes, many of these folks reject the very idea of help out of pride. They take pride in their independence and look at charity as a sign of weakness. Yet, there comes a time, especially when their home is falling down on top of them, that they finally accept offers of help. These cases many times provide caregivers with the most rewarding success stories.

Americans must remember that in rural areas, especially in southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, there are many times no organized services made available for seniors, those with disabilities and those too poor to afford public services. Many locations have nothing like a “senior center” to provide daily meals or a service to deliver meals to homebound seniors. Many areas have no form of transportation available to get those who are elderly, disabled or poor to doctor’s visits or even to get to the store.

These are interesting times in which we live and are bound to get even more interesting in the coming month to six weeks. God help us all to stay strong, alert and aware of changing situations and needs.

Advance Warning: Hurricanes Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana May Be Coming SOON

We are, by most experts’ accounts, somewhere between a week to ten days away from another outbreak of tropical weather. Right around the first of October we should be seeing at least three tropical storms or hurricanes in various stages of development in various places in the Atlantic, Caribbean and, unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico. This season is far from over, and as bad as the Fay, Gustov, Hanna and Ike storm train was; the round might be even worse.

We saw three years ago what happens when the country is struck by a major hurricane soon after another one. The second storm does not receive the attention, supplies or other resources the first storm does. No one could possibly argue that Hurricane Rita victims received anywhere near the attention that Katrina victims did. Certainly this is in part to due to location, but it is also due to how near the two hurricanes were to each other time wise.

Lost in the Katrina disaster is the fact that a hundred fifty miles east of where Katrina made landfall (near Pensacola, Florida), two major hurricanes made landfall within a year of each other. In August 2004, Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama just to the west of Pensacola. Ivan, lest we forget, was the third most expensive hurricane to hit the United States before Ike. In July of 2005, Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Navarre Beach, Florida just to the east of Pensacola.

Very few people in the United States have any recollection of Dennis and most have forgotten about Ivan. Although the people who lived in Ivan’s path will never forget the fear of a category 5 monster bearing down upon them, people outside of the immediate area long ago forgot about how fortunate we were that Ivan weakened and did not go fifty miles west right into Mobile, Alabama.

I vividly recall driving down Interstate 10 in July of 2006, two years after Ivan and one year after Dennis and being amazed at the number of blue tarps covering roofs. At the time, I could not understand how there could still be so many homes whose roofs had not been repaired in the space of two years. Part of the reason for this was certainly the double whammy of two hurricanes within a year of each other.

In September of 2004, Stuart, Florida had the distinction of being hit by two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. First Hurricane Francis came ashore as a strong category 2 storm, and then amazingly, three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne followed the exact same path as a category 3 storm. Together, the two storms caused almost 16 billion dollars in damage. As bad as this was for the immediate area, the scary part is to think what would have happened if both of these storms would have hit fifty miles further south in the densely populated West Palm Beach area.

The current situation in central and southwestern Louisiana is unprecedented in many respects. There are areas which have been impacted by first Katrina and then Rita in 2005 and now Gustov and Ike in 2008. Some would say that three years makes this a non-issue, but one must remember there was no rebuilding or recovery in most of this region from the 2005 storms until late 2006 and into 2007.

No one can say with any degree of confidence where any of the upcoming storms will be headed. But, there is ample evidence to suggest that one or more of the various tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the next few weeks will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico somewhere. Obviously, if any storm starts heading toward the Galveston/Houston area we will have MAJOR problems. There is no assurance that many thousand people currently in shelters won’t still be there.

One of the worst case scenarios would be another major hurricane do as Jeanne did in Florida four years ago and follow the exact same path as Ike. It is beyond the ability to comprehend how disastrous this would be. Of course this same exact fear was prevalent in 2005 when for a season it looked like Rita would hit New Orleans.

As horrible as this scenario would be, there are two that could be worse. The first would be for one of the upcoming hurricanes to follow Gustov’s path into central Louisiana. This area could not handle a third major hurricane in the same season without massive loss of property and life. Since this area is very difficult to reach due to the terrain and lack of roads, a third hurricane would be a calamity.

The worst case scenario would be a major hurricane hit New Orleans, the Mississippi Coast or Mobile/Pensacola. We are not equipped in this country to handle multiple major hurricanes at the same time; not with the economy as it is. Resources are already stretched thin, especially among major charities, due to all the tornadoes and flooding earlier this year.

Here is THE worst case scenario that could play out over the next month. A major hurricane strikes the central Gulf Coast (New Orleans, Mobile) before Galveston/Houston are on their feet. Then, a major hurricane strikes the East Coast either in North Carolina, Miami or New York. If, and this has never happened in our country’s history, we had 3 major hurricanes strike densely populated areas within a month of each other, it could and would cripple the country.

In 2005, there were 3 major hurricanes to strike (Katrina, Rita and Wilma), but Rita did not strike a densely populated area and Wilma’s damage was concentrated in an area well equipped to handle it. The fear of many who study, forecast and track hurricanes is that one of these years a major hurricane would ride the East Coast and hit either Philadelphia or New York. Unlike the Gulf Coast or Florida, or even the Carolinas, the big cities in the Northeast are not used to hurricanes and the potential for chaos and damage is very high.

God forbid any of these scenarios end up happening, but only a fool would sit back and assume none or only one could take place. Preparation is the key to survival. It would do all parties from Galveston to Boston well to start making preparations NOW for the possible hurricane threats coming up in October. With all that is going on economically, it behooves the American public to NOT sit back on their laurels and assume they are safe and secure. Only a true FOOL would be so naïve this year.

Louisiana–The Forgotten Battleground of Gustov and Ike (Rita too)

AMERICA—The call has gone forth and has not being heeded.

AMERICA—The needs are far greater than anyone knows.

AMERICA—Are you going to step up and meet the needs.

AMERICA—Your brothers and sisters await you.

While the vast majority of Americans are either pre-occupied with the daily financial market soap opera installment or spend all their time wondering what their favorite candidate said or didn’t say today; deep in our country’s hurricane ravaged South, the pain is deep and the need is greater. A story which should be at the top of the news has, amazingly almost dropped out of sight in the media.

On Labor day, Hurricane Gustov slammed into the central Louisiana coast as a strong category 3 hurricane. While all the eyes of the nation were glued to see whether New Orleans would survive; nary a soul was watching to see what Gustov actually did. As constant images of flood walls being overtopped by a little water filled our television screen, those gathered in Minnesota for the start of the Republican National Convention were holding a telethon to raise money for Gustov victims.

Amazingly, the next day Gustov was ancient history except for a few stories of evacuees scattered all over the Southern states. There was no media coverage of the damage caused by Gustov outside of New Orleans. By Wednesday of that week, there was no longer any coverage of the event whatsoever as all media attention was switched to the speech by Gov. Palin at the Convention.

As soon as the Convention ended, tropical storm/hurricane Hanna came to life and threatened Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina. Even while Hanna was toying with becoming a major storm, hurricane Ike exploded in the Bahamas into a giant hurricane. By the time Hanna had come and gone, Ike was quickly becoming the major story as it first destroyed Cuba and then set his sights on various places along the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, during this period of time, an absolutely incredible thing was taking place. Deep in the very heart of Louisiana, Hurricane Gustov victims were by and large being totally neglected and forgotten. Unlike every other major hurricane to strike this country, there was no media coverage, no racing to the scene by various charities and very little help from even government agencies. It was as if no one cared about what had happened because of the people involved.

Who lives in this area of Louisiana anyway? What do they do down there? Why should I care about some God forsaken, mosquito infested backwater chunk of real estate in one of the strangest states in the country? These were the questions America asked after Gustov, instead of those which should have been asked.

Should it really matter where disaster strikes in this country? Should it really matter whether those impacted are rich or poor, white or black of English origin or Cajuns? Should it really matter if the area which is devastated is lush farmland or a swamp? Should it really matter what state the disaster is in?

Hurricane Rita ravaged this area three years ago. No one knew and no one cared. One ministry out of Lafayette tried to provide food and supplies to people scattered from Cameron Parish to New Iberia. That is until their resources ran out 9 months after Rita hit. There was never any Red Cross or Salvation Army presence. FEMA came and moved in and quickly moved out to handle Katrina related matters. While these tattered and torn people had no one helping them, those in New Orleans and Mississippi were being flooded with supplies and volunteers.

Does lightning strike twice? You bet, especially when those who have little to begin with are affected. Those people scattered in south central Louisiana were devastated by Rita in 2005 with little or no outside help to repair and rebuild. This same area, but now including Baton Rouge and Lafayette had to deal with the full fury of hurricane Gustov. Lest we forget, Gustov was a stronger hurricane than Ike. Less than two weeks after Gustov, this same area was swamped by hurricane Ike.

What is it like to live in an area no one knows about or cares anything about? It breeds self reliance and extreme bitterness. Those who live in these areas are highly skeptical of anyone claiming they want to help. They have been neglected and forgotten about countless times. Why should they believe this time is any different?

Last week, the day before Ike hit; a retire medical doctor from Gulfport, MS who goes only by “Doc” braved the rising waters and took some much needed food to these people in south central Louisiana. Just barely beating the rising storm surge from Ike leaving, he was awed by what he saw. This says a lot because Doc has been rounding up food and other supplies for Katrina victims since the day after Katrina hit.

Yesterday Carolyn Thompson from Tri Coastal Community Outreach in Grand Bay, Alabama returned with Doc to Louisiana to drop off more supplies. Fighting knee deep water, the devastation they found is beyond description. Yet, America does not know and could really care less about what is going on in New Iberia, Louisiana. See, America is too busy raising money to elect another worthless President. America is too busy crying over drops in the Stock Market. America is too busy trying to help those in Houston and Galveston to worry about Louisiana.

Please America, though they may not be many and they are certainly not mighty or influential; our fellow citizens in Louisiana desperately need our help. Unlike Texas where outside help has problems getting in, there is no such problems in Louisiana. Any and all help is desperately needed. For more information and current status please contact:

Carolyn Thompson, Director of Tri Coastal Community Outreach–(228) 623-0017, or go to Tri Coastal’s website at http://www.tricoastalcommunity.org/main.htm or contact me via my website at http://heart2heartshare.com/contactus.htm

The Gustov/Ike legacy is FAR MORE than Houston or Galveston. There are smaller less populated areas stretching from Galveston all the way to Mobile, Alabama which have suffered greatly from storm surge damage from these two storms. Please, there are huge immediate needs NOT being met in many of these areas. As soon as the water ever goes down, there will be a gigantic need for supplies and volunteers all along the Gulf coast.

The Ugly Truth about the Discrimination in Disaster Coverage and Relief

Lest there be any confusion or misunderstanding, let me set the record straight regarding the dark secret of disasters in this country. Not all disasters are treated equal. Not by any stretch of the imagination. The way a disaster (or potential disaster) is covered in one area bears no resemblance to how it would be treated in another. The ultimate criteria for media coverage and immediate help are political impact and ratings.

Two weeks ago at this time the country of Jamaica was being beaten by Hurricane Gustov. In the days which followed, Gustov managed to usurp the Sen. Obama’s acceptance speech and Sen. McCain’s choice of Gov. Palin as his running mate as the major news story. Instead of seeing images of the opening day of the Republican National Convention on September 1^st, all eyes were glued to the storm that was supposed to kill New Orleans once and for all.

The country, politicians and media of all types waited for the story of the decade to unfold. For many, the fact that Gustov missed causing the destruction of New Orleans was a source of bitter disappointment. As quickly as all the television satellite trucks came, they left and headed for Minnesota and convention they never wanted to attend to begin with. FEMA picked up and moved to the East Coast in anticipation of hurricane Hanna striking there.

The end result was that no one in the United States of America knew that Gustov DID cause incredible damage and untold human suffering in areas just to the west and northwest of New Orleans. Why does no one know? Because there was no “big story” coming out of Baton Rouge, or Lafayette; let alone New Iberia or Grand Isle. Who wants to hear about the suffering Cajuns or see images of heavily damaged poor WHITE people’s homes and businesses?

So now we sit on the precipice of the greatest natural disaster to hit the United States in its history—Hurricane Ike; and where is the non-stop media coverage? Where are the trucks lined up and fighting each other for position to get the best images of poor black people’s homes flooded and destroyed by hurricane winds? Where are the news stories of all the FEMA people and resources standing by ready to swoop in and save the day? There are none because the destruction of Galveston or Houston is not as compelling as the destruction of New Orleans would have been.

The sick and perverted way disasters are handled in this country drives those who try to help in these disasters crazy. While one area receives tons of help and media coverage which promotes more help, another area receives no coverage and thus very little help. Hurricane Rita bore this truth out three years ago. The amount of aid sent to areas destroyed by Rita was a trickle compared to what went to Katrina areas, especially New Orleans.

I went to Cameron, Louisiana seven months after Rita hit. There was no one single relief agency anywhere to be found. Every single group had left the area. There was NO ONE helping these people survive, let alone rebuild their lives. Many groups had to quit because they could not find resources or volunteers to help. All available aid was going to the 5 star volunteer camps erected in and around New Orleans. No one cared about where Rita did its most damage.

When a tornado ripped Greensburg, Kansas off the face of the map, for some reason the media jumped on the story and every relief agency in existence flooded the area before even FEMA could lock down the place. Greensburg became a national icon of disaster relief and recovery. Meanwhile, a tornado ripped areas of Eagle Pass and Piedras Negras, Mexico off the map also. I tried contacting every one of the same agencies which gladly descended on Greensburg to help. Not one of them was willing to lift a finger to aid the area due to the Mexican influence.

Other towns have suffered the same fate as Greensburg since that disaster. Far too many to list in fact. North Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee are just a few of the states which have seen either F-5 tornadoes demolish a town or a rash of tornadoes destroy many towns. Not one of these areas or towns has ever received a tenth of the attention or help Greensburg received. Why? I don’t have an answer for that one, I only know the facts.

A month or so before Greensburg was flattened, a tornado tore though Enterprise, Alabama and hit a high school killing a number of students. The story made national news for a day or so. Weeks after the tornado, there was nigh unto no assistance coming in to the area. I toured the area and found out why. The lion’s share of the damage was to the black part of town except for the high school where the students died. All available resources were diverted to “white” towns in Georgia which had been devastated by the same storms which hit Enterprise.

Disaster relief is not color blind and is many times determined by where the potential for most media coverage and political benefit is found. The discrimination found in providing help to victims of disasters, large and small, is staggering. Soon, I will post excerpts from an account written less than a week after Gustov hit the central Louisiana coast telling of the incredible damage and human suffering. No one knows this story for no one is there covering it. Now after Ike hits, this poor area will receive no media coverage, no outside help and very little government help.

There are many things in the United States which are good and wonderful and reflect the honest desire on the part of many of its citizens and agencies to help others in time of need. There are also many dark and ugly elephants in the closets of many groups whose claim is to equally share resources and volunteers with those in need. The sad reality is that for every disaster, every town and every family who receives the loving support and help of strangers, there are ten who never see anyone but a stray government official or scam artist. This is a sad testimony to our heart of giving .

Ike is Blazing a New Trail so Where He is Going is an Unknown

Let the model wars begin. In the most recent computer model guidance for Ike, some of them are picking up something which could greatly alter the apparent move of Ike toward the Houston/Galveston area. Look closely at what the HWRF model does with Ike off the coast of Louisiana. The GFS is also picking something up and is causing Ike to make a sharp right turn instead of progressing due west.

The six major models are evenly split into three camps as far as what they think Ike will do on Friday. The HWRF and GFS are showing the sharp right turn and sending Ike on a Gustov or Katrina track. The GFDL and NOGAPS send Ike toward Lake Charles in western Louisiana. The NGFDL sends Ike to Corpus Christi and the UKMET toward hurricane Dolly landfall.

As is so often the case, the official track will “split the difference” when models disagree. Currently the NHC five day guidance carries Ike almost directly toward Galveston even though no model takes it there. There seems to be little to back up this track other than appeasing the various models. There are, though, major problems which develop between a Louisiana hit and a Galveston hit. Not the least of which is a difference of at least two days lead time.

All discussion of location and intensity of Ike four or five days from now is pure speculation. We must first see what Cuba does to the hurricane before jumping to conclusions. From what I have read, there has never been a hurricane hit Cuba where Ike just did. We are dealing with a very unpredictable storm blazing a path never taken by any hurricane before. This is quite remarkable considering how many hurricanes have hit Cuba over the years.

What Ike does today and tomorrow cannot be verified by historical data. Thus, the entire basis for future forecasts is purely conjecture. Without past data to compare things to, there is obviously much room for error. This is what everyone from meteorologists to Governors to individuals must keep in mind when dealing with Ike. We are breaking new ground with Ike, and as with any groundbreaking endeavor; you never really know what you are going to find.

I am going out on a limb here by saying that I think Ike presents a classic example of a hurricane which could end up going places the models cannot see. I think Ike could defy everyone and either totally fall apart or emerge from Cuba, rapidly intensify back into a category 4 or 5 storm and head due north to the Mobile, Alabama area. I think Ike could do exactly as the models think and end up striking somewhere in Louisiana or Texas as a category 3 hurricane.

The point is, at this point in time; Ike could end up hitting anywhere in the Gulf at any intensity. Why? Because pretty much everything with Ike is unprecedented and thus any and all options are on the table. I believe the NHC knows this and that is why they keep stressing in their discussions that it is still much too early to say where Ike is going to strike. This is being honest, but we are running out of time.

As discussed before; it takes time to evacuate a major metropolitan area. If it takes one day to evacuate Mobile, Alabama, it will take two to evacuate New Orleans and three to evacuate Houston. Yet, at present there is no way to know who needs to even be thinking about evacuating. This makes it frustrating for all in involved, but it just the way Ike is presenting himself.

Personally, I believe there is a 25% chance Ike will hit Mobile, New Orleans, Lake Charles or Galveston. I also believe there is 25% chance Ike will be a category 4 or 5, 3, 2 or 1 storm when it strikes. On the television show “Deal or No Deal”, if a contestant has four cases left and one of them contains a million dollars; he/she has a 25% chance of being a millionaire. I believe anyone living between Pensacola, Florida and Corpus Christi, Texas has a 25% chance of feeling the effects of Ike.

IF Ike curves northwest in the next few hours and ends up traversing pretty much the entire island of Cuba, then I believe it will emerge off the north coast tomorrow afternoon as a tropical storm only. But, if Ike keeps going west, it could be back over warm water within a few hours as a category 2 storm. Even if it curved north and followed Gustov’s path over western Cuba, it would not lose that much strength. This day will tell the story of what Ike will do and then by this time tomorrow we can start narrowing down where Ike is going so that proper precautions can be taken to protect life and property.

Hanna Fizzles while Ike Sizzles; Watch Out Gulf Coast

So, after all the ranting and raving about possible horrible scenarios with Hanna; it turned out to be very strong tropical storm/weak category 1 hurricane after all. Once again, this points out the two-edged sword of forecasting. On one side all available data can lead to a landfall forecast that ended up being exactly where forecasted 5 days in advance; but on the other hand, the intensity forecasts went from a category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm.

I was speaking tonight with an associate in the Mobile, Alabama area who said the prevailing attitude among the people down there is one of anger at the weather forecasters for making them board up their homes and evacuate. They are saying there is no way they will go through that again. The scary thing is that this is exactly what led to the Katrina disaster to begin with. Frustrated people who vowed to ride out “the next one” based on slight errors regarding Ivan and other hurricanes.

However understandable this mentality is, it is suicidal in the end. However frustrated we all get with those who forecast and telecast those forecasts, we cannot allow that frustration to manifest itself as utter stupidity. In the winter, we are led to believe we are going to get buried with two feet of snow only to get a dusting. In the spring we are told to prepare for tornadoes and it never even rains. We all know how frustrating it is when forecasts go awry.

The simple truth of the matter is that if a person wants to live near the ocean, it is with the understanding that periodically there will be hurricanes and tropical storms. There will also be rumors of storms, unnecessary evacuations and power outages. These are just the price to be paid for the benefit of the coastal environment.

Hanna was never a busted forecast storm. There were many who thought it might intensify before reaching the coast, but it never did due to speed more than anything else. Once a tropical storm starts moving as fast as Hanna is moving, the chances of it having time to develop into a huge storm are slim. A person could hardly drive much faster than Hanna will be going tomorrow and Sunday.

Ike is the all consuming story for the next week. All models are now taking Ike through the southern Bahamas and either into northern Cuba or between Florida and Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico. All models curve Ike to the northwest after passing Cuba/Florida. With each model run, it is appearing that the Gulf Coast may have to deal with Ike by the middle of next week.

Personally, this far out, I think it is impossible to know what Ike is going to do besides be a MAJOR hurricane for someone. Whether Florida or the central Gulf Coast or even the Texas coast; someone is going to feel the full brunt of what could be the most powerful hurricane to hit the United States since Wilma in 2005.

Since there is still plenty of time to prepare, those with an interest anywhere from Houston to Boston should simply keep an eye on Ike this weekend to see if there is any changes to its track. Please join with me in prayer that if nothing else, Ike stays away from Haiti. That poor nation cannot endure much more with totally falling into a state of complete chaos and anarchy. The suffering going on in that country at this time is beyond the ability of anyone in this country to comprehend.

I sense a lot of fear on the part of people who have never lived through, or lived through only one hurricane. Fear is not good, but a healthy respect for the power of a hurricane is good. Preparation usually eliminates fear, for fear creeps in when unknown circumstances arise with no apparent escape. That is why the full spectrum of hurricane preparation is vitally needed. It is not just having some extra beer in the fridge or few extra cans of beans in the pantry.

A full array of questions need to be asked of each member of the family to ever arrive at the perfect hurricane preparedness kit. Each person has different needs and wants and as much as can fit needs to be placed in a box and labeled “hurricane”. When the time comes to evacuate, the box is ready except for perishable food.

Part of preparation is having an escape route and having the funds to get to and back from where you are going. It is incredible how many people are stranded in various southeastern states who evacuated from Louisiana and Mississippi and do not have any money to get home. We are talking tens of thousands of people stuck in horrible shelters without the funds to purchase gas to get home. God forbid they finally get home and are forced to evacuate again for Ike.

The next 48 hours will tell us what Ike is thinking. From Sunday evening forward, certain people somewhere will have to start the dreaded process of evacuating, physically preparing for and wondering if it was all worth it. Rather than heaping scorn on these people, let us resolve to offer prayers for them. They will surly need them.

Gustov Evacuees Stranded in Shelters

Imagine being told you MUST evacuate where you are living and you have perhaps 6 hours to sort through you possessions, load the car, board up the house and hope not to forget anything. What is your reward for being a good law abiding citizen? You get to sit in traffic along with all the thousands of others who are in the same situation you are in.

Perhaps you had time to get your prescription drugs refilled, but probably not. Perhaps you had time to think about your personal effects such as bank accounts and ID cards and the such, but probably not. In the frenzy driven by darkening skies and constant warnings on the television and radio to LEAVE NOW; many things were forgotten and/or misplaced.

Sitting in the world’s worst traffic jam you finally have time to think about everything you forgot to get or do. Did you turn off the coffee pot? Did you get the clothes out of the washer? Did you turn the thermostat up? Did you get the battery charger for the cell phone? Did you lock all the doors and windows? The questions keep coming and most of them have no answers. Your mind is in no condition to remember your address, let alone what you managed to throw in the car and didn’t.

Times have tough due to recovery from the last storm, high gas prices and medical expenses. Long ago the credit cards were taken away so that leaves only cash as a means of payment for gas and food. With no money to stay in a motel and with the shelters in your home state already full, you are forced to drive two states away to find a shelter with space available.

The drive is tedious, to say the least. Everyone’s at their wit’s end. Finally you get to the location you were heading to. Your “shelter” consists of a metal building with two portable toilets out back for hundreds of people. You have driven all this way for a cot and to share a port-a-potty with people who haven’t bathed in weeks.

Amazingly, people with few earthly possessions and have a stench that would drive away wild animals have enough booze in their car to stay drunk for a week. Fights break out over stupid things like snoring too loud or laughing too much. The drunks start fighting and soon everyone is on edge. Someone comes in to say the portable toilets are full already.

The food consists of outdated MRE’s that have no taste and are probably spoiled rotten. Soon the wind picks up and the lights start to flicker. The relentless rain drives against the building and it sounds like the roof is going to fly off any minute. It is night time and the electricity goes out. The only light is that of a few flashlights and the lighters of the smokers.

Somehow you live through the night from hell. The next morning someone hears on their car radio that your home area has been heavily damaged by a direct hit from a major hurricane. The authorities say it will be at least three days before anyone can return home. “OH MY GOD” is all anyone can say or think. Three more days in a prison most convicts would rather die than stay in.

On the second day the food runs out and what is left of the water is being rationed. Some, who had extra money or credit cards have left in search of a motel to stay in. Good luck, every room for three hundred miles is occupied. Others have left to try to make it to a friend or relative’s house up the road a few hundred miles. Within a few hours, most return due to roads blocked by tree limbs and/or power lines.

Feeling like a caged animal, people start breaking down. The fears of what has happened to their homes and the anger at being placed in such a hellhole are too much to bear. Finally some local folks bring as much food as they could spare and a truck brings some water. The toilets are still full and most everyone is hungry, but at least there is water.

After a few days the green light is given to “go home” such as it may be. People are warned that there is no electricity, no running water and the sewer system is not working and is backing up into homes. People leave anyway, wanting the security of their home instead of the horrible communal living arrangement of the shelter.

You think about leaving also but then you look in your wallet and see you have all of five dollars left to your name. With no money and no credit cards it is impossible to drive home. No one offers to help anyone else for everyone is in the same boat. Those with no money have no choice but to stay and wait for someone to help them. Odds are, before anyone does, the facility will be closed and those remaining will be forced to leave whether they have the means to or not.

Think this is a fairy tale? Think again. This very scenario is being played out as I type this in shelters in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana among other states. There are thousands of people marooned in sub-human “shelters” who literally do not have the money to drive home. Just today, Greater Birmingham, Alabama Ministries distributed $50 gas cards to a few hundred people in shelters there trying to help them get back home to New Orleans. They ran out of gas cards long before making a dent in the number needed.

The crisis I am relating will not make the evening news. It will not be in the daily papers. Even though it is not being reported, it is happening in scores of locations in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia and other states evacuees went to escape Gustov. Please, if you can help these people please contact the Emergency Management Director for the states involved. If you get nowhere with them, please contact Carolyn Thompson at: carollynnla@bellsouth.net and she can direct you to whoever can provide help. Carolyn is the director of Tri Coastal Community Outreach in Grand Bay, Alabama of which I have written about before; “Tri Coastal Community Outreach: A Rare Disaster Relief Group Success Story”

We are dealing with a humanitarian crisis that is unfathomable in our country in 2008. We must rally to find help for those who are displaced and get them home to start the rebuilding of their homes and lives. Thank You.

Fay “could” end up more of a headache than Katrina was

There is little, if any historical data to compare what Tropical Storm Fay is doing to. Thus, logic dictates there is even less data to look at as to what it COULD do. This little storm has managed to cause even the most skilled forecasters to scratch their heads in utter bewilderment. If the scenario should happen to play out over the next few days this storm would make history.

Weather events do not happen by luck, chance or coincidence. There are meteorological reasons for why a storm does what it does. Storms do not have a mind of their own which enables them to deliberately do things to aggravate forecasters. Storms end up doing what the various aspects of weather governing it tell it to do.

One of the most distressing possible ways the whole Fay saga could end is if the storm makes history by hitting near Jacksonville, Florida as category 1 hurricane and moves west back across Florida and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico intact. If, and the probabilities of this taking place are very slim, this were to happen the end results from Fay could be worse than Katrina three years ago.

Winds blow counterclockwise around a hurricane. Katrina came up from the south and because of this, the storm surge ended up being over twenty feet along the Mississippi coast. The initial damage in New Orleans from Katrina was minimal because it sat on the western side of the hurricane moving north. The New Orleans catastrophe came about when Katrina moved ashore and the winds switched to the north and blew the waters from Lake Pontchartrain into the city which sits below sea level.

If Fay were to move west from Florida towards New Orleans, the potential disaster would dwarf Katrina. Why? Because the westward movement of the storm would produce a prolonged period of NORTH winds ahead of the approaching storm. Instead of a storm surge preceding the hurricane like Katrina, the storm surge would follow the storm and be minimal. The greater danger would be the north winds over a prolonged time blowing the waters of Lake Pontchartrain into the city of New Orleans.

Due to the lay of the land and where the city of New Orleans sits, there is actually very little danger of a storm surge inundating the city. The potential problems have always laid in the scenario of a storm moving in from the southeast or east and generating a prolonged period of hurricane force winds over Lake Pontchartrain. Unless a person has been to the area it is difficult to picture how a lake could cause more problems than an ocean; but such is the case in New Orleans.

No one knows at this time what Fay will end up doing. It may come ashore again and more or less just fizzle out. It may come ashore and move to the northwest into Georgia and help break the longstanding drought there. It may emerge on the west side of Florida, move south and make a loop following the same path it just took. It may emerge into the warm waters of the Gulf, become a hurricane and move west directly toward New Orleans.

This storm has a history of NOT doing what the computer models think it should do. Because of this, it would be highly advantageous for anyone from the panhandle of Florida to New Orleans to be acutely aware of the movements of Fay over the next few days. Some models and some hurricane experts think the greatest danger is that Fay emerges off the west coast of Florida, immediately intensifies and follows Ivan’s 1994 path which would put Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida at high risk.

Needless to say, the next three to seven days could end up being at the very least, interesting and at the worst, a disaster which would equal or exceed Katrina in some respects. And as if this were not enough to be concerned about, out in the Atlantic is the next storm which is slowly taking shape and could be buffeting some portion of the United States coastline by this time next week.

I would highly recommend anyone with interests on the Gulf Coast to monitor what Fay is doing very closely along with the next storm. The remainder of this hurricane season could end up being very active and one that presents forecasters with storms such as Fay which are nearly impossible to forecast. As in any hurricane season, the next 2 months are the most dangerous and especially so this year. Vigilance is the key word for the day and for the days to come.