The Coming Economic Jolt; Rice & Oil are Only the Beginning

I do not write this to be a “fear-monger” or to claim the world is ending tonight; but there are some things going on that if people do not wake up and make plans for, are going to cause great weeping and gnashing of teeth.  There is little anyone can do about situations happening in distant parts of this world, but it does behoove us to know what is taking place so as to plan accordingly.

FOOD SHORTAGES, ESPECIALLY RICE

There was a real problem with rice supply before the devastating cyclone tore through Myanmar.  Now, the 7^th biggest producer of rice has lost their entire crop.  This not only spells disaster for the citizens of that country, but it places even greater strain on world supplies.  Rice is the overwhelming basic food for almost half of the world’s population.  With supplies running out and prices increasing, the frustration level is boiling over in various poorer countries.

On the same day that a huge tropical cyclone basically wiped Myanmar off the map, a volcano that had not erupted in 9,000 years suddenly erupts in Chile.  Huge agricultural areas are at risk of being permanently ruined by volcanic ash.  Much of the fruit and vegetables eaten by those in the United States during the winter months are grown in regions of Chile that may or may not survive the eruption.

Perhaps most troubling of all was an announcement today that fully one third of the honeybee colonies in the United States have collapsed since last year.  At first glance this story means absolutely nothing to most people.  What difference does it make to the average American if the honeybees colonies collapse.  It should make a huge difference if people took the time to get educated. 

Honeybees are the great pollinator of most fruits and vegetables grown in this country.  Without honeybees the blooms are never pollinated and there is no fruit.  The honeybee is perhaps the most important component in keeping the insatiable hunger for fresh fruits and vegetables satisfied in this country.  If the honeybee colonies continue to collapse, it will spell the end of the very foods doing the most to keep us healthy.

SPIKE IN OIL PRICES AND PETROLEUM BASED PRODUCTS

In one day, some governmental agency states that gasoline prices might hit $3.75 per gallon this summer; oil sets yet another record trading for the outrageous price of $123 per barrel.  I go to town and see the price of gasoline went up to $3.69 per gallon.  Who is kidding whom?  With the price of oil setting records almost every day, the inevitable raising of gasoline prices comes a week or two later.  When some economist says oil may hit $200 per barrel and it immediately causes a jump of $3 in the price of oil; it is time to seriously take stock of the situation.

As the inevitable $4 per gallon gasoline gets closer and closer to reality; those driving huge SUVs that get woefully low gas mileage are trying to sell their albatrosses and not finding much of a market.  It has taken awhile, but the shock of spending close to a hundred dollars to fill up one’s Hummer is making even those who are wealthy think twice about driving all over the place in time they wish.

Among the products using petroleum are many of the fertilizers farmers use on their huge corn, wheat and soybean fields.  Suddenly, these farmers are being hit with the double whammy of sky high diesel fuel to run their equipment along with the bigger problem of fertilizer costs that have jumped so far so fast the farmers were not prepared.  Without the fertilizers they will never get the yield they would get otherwise.  It is a truly a catch 22 situation for hundreds of thousands of farmers.

There is no way fuel costs can be as high as they have been for as long as they have without pressures sooner or later being forced on producers to raise prices to make up the difference.  With shipping costs quickly going up and more and more businesses putting surcharges on their services to cover for fuel; inflation is going to go up whether the government’s figures say so or not. 

FUTURE PRESSURE POINTS

The cyclone that has destroyed Myanmar followed the scenario many meteorologists in this county are extremely nervous about when it comes to the upcoming hurricane season.  The cyclone that hit Myanmar as a strong category 4 was only a minimal cyclone two days before reaching land.  The storm “ramped up” at the last minute and because it did, the storm surge was worse than to be expected and and the resulting flooding proved as fatal as a tsunami.

Last summer, the United States coastlines from Texas to Maine were spared any direct hits from some of the largest hurricanes ever to form in the Atlantic basin.  Many of these category 4 and 5 storms slammed into Mexico as they stayed just south of not only the United States mainland but also the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Remember that part of the reason Katrina caused such a dramatic spike in gasoline prices was that it shut down numerous oil refineries in Mississippi and Louisiana.  Remember also that Katrina was actually only a category 3 hurricane when it came ashore in Mississippi.  If a category 4 or higher storm followed Katrina’s path this year and shut down the oil rigs in the Gulf and the refineries on the coast; realistically we would be facing $7 per gallon gasoline or higher for weeks.

We get much of our oil from Mexico.  They are having major problems down there at the moment.  If a huge hurricane disrupted their oil production or transport systems there would be a dramatic spike in prices in this country.  Last year a “freak” cyclone struck the Persian Gulf for the first time in centuries.  If the same thing happened again and actually took out some oil facilities; the price or oil would jump in an instant.

We live in an age when data is transmitted instantaneously around the world.  When something happens in one part of the world, everyone knows about it immediately.   When a terrorist blows up a pipeline in Nigeria, the price of oil jumps that instant.  God Forbid a major conflict would break out among any of the nations producing major quantities of oil.  If one did, the price would shoot up to that $200 level so fast no one would have time to prepare.

CONCLUSION

We live in perilous times.  All that we hold so near and dear to us could change in a day or even an hour.  If there ever were a time to prepare for the worst while praying for and believing for the best, it is now.  If there ever were a time to plant a garden, this year is the year, before it is too late.  If there ever were a year to store a few 5 gallon containers of gasoline in a safe place in the garage it is this year.  If there ever were a time to cut back on frivolous expenses it is now.

Whether wet fields which have prevented farmers from planting much of the spring corn and rice crops in this country or the looming hurricane season which officially starts in a little over three weeks; there are ample reasons to feel a bit of apprehension about the upcoming summer.  God will provide and protect, but He needs His people to be smart and to be extremely circumspect.  If they are, then no matter what happens, there can be “corn in Egypt” just as there was in Joseph’s time and food in the pantry’s of God’s people.

 

Why We Need To Care About Myanmar

Just as in the case of the tsunami in Indonesia, the horrible facts regarding the destruction from the cyclone in Myanmar (Burma) will take time to come to light.  This much is known for sure; the initial estimates of 400 casualties were just the tip of the iceberg.  If and when the true magnitude and scope of this disaster ever is known, the death toll could reach well into the tens of thousands and the number of homeless could be in the millions.

It would be very easy for those of us in the “civilized world” to brush aside this tragedy as something reserved for a backwards country, run by a repressive regime and that they more or less “had it coming” to them.  After all, if a similar hurricane hit the United States, the damage would be great but the loss of life would be small.  “These people should have taken care of themselves” is the temptation to justify a lack of compassion.

It is the government’s responsibility to warn the population of an impending weather related disaster.  The problem in a country such as Myanmar is the extreme poverty in which the population lives and thus the lack of modern conveniences such as radios and televisions.  How do you warn millions of people of an approaching storm with no means to broadcast instructions to them?  How do you move millions of people to safety who don’t own vehicles to get to safety in?

Stories surfaced immediately after this storm struck of people spending their last resources just to buy a candle at a highly inflated price to have any light.  It is truly beyond the ability of our “civilized” minds to grasp the idea of spending the last money you own to buy a candle.  Of course, it is beyond our ability to conceive that people live in “houses” made of cardboard and survive on a daily diet of perhaps 1000 calories (on a good day).

The United States of America has less than one twentieth of the world’s population but controls the vast majority of the world’s wealth.  The standard of living enjoyed by those in the United States and other “civilized” countries is impossible to compare to how the majority of this world lives.  Whereas many people in this world barely make enough to stay alive another day, those privileged few who were blessed to be born into and live in the “civilized world” make more in a day than many make in a year.

We can read accounts in the Bible of severe famines caused by droughts and wars.  We can read of times when mothers were forced to eat their own children due to lack of any other food.  History is full of accounts of pioneers and explorers who died of starvation as they found themselves in hostile environments with no source of food.  A fairly current movie chronicled such an account of a troubled young man in Alaska who faced running out of food.

As most of us lug around twenty to one hundred pounds of excess fat, there are literally billions of other humans living on this earth who don’t have one ounce of fat on their bodies.  Starvation is one of the cruelest forms of slow death possible.  Unless one has seen the people who have turned into literal skin and bones; no one has the right to say when they are hungry “I’m starving to death”.  Most of us do not have a clue what it means to really be “starving”.

Unless and until those who have lived the pampered and sheltered lives common to the “civilized world” go to places of extreme poverty and suffering and see for themselves how people are forced to live who have no way to make a living; there is no way a truly compassionate response to a disaster such as the one in Myanmar will ever be mounted.  Sure, there will be the typical few hundred millions of humanitarian relief offered, but it will be offered with no genuine sincerity.

I lay out a challenge to any and all who might read this that grew up in middle class America and have never actually seen up close the throes of abject poverty.  Next time you have some of your weeks of stored up vacation time come up; instead of using it to go sailing, on a nice cruise, visiting some exotic country full of palm trees and over priced drinks or playing golf everyday; why not volunteer to go to one of the multitude of places just in this country struggling to recover from floods, tornadoes and even the lingering effects of Katrina.

Nothing changes your life, your perspective and your ability to manifest true compassion quicker than having to live with and find ways to help people who had nothing, or have lost everything.  When one is forced to look into the eyes of a person who has nothing in this life of any value, then you can finally see the reason Jesus came to this earth to begin with.  See, He didn’t come to heal the whole, feed the full or befriend the popular. 

Jesus Christ came to heal the brokenhearted, to set the captives free and to bind up the wounds of the broken.  Those who glory in their own self-sufficiency do not need a Savior.  But those who have nothing and mean nothing to this world desperately need the love and compassion only our Savior can bring.  When one reads the account at the end of Matthew 25 there is no question as to what the proper response SHOULD be by a Christian when confronted by human suffering.  Please Respond with Love.

 

Our Insane Two Party Political System

Somewhere in between the pompous arrogance of the ultra right wing Rush Limbaugh and the smug self-righteousness of the progressive left’s Bill Moyers lies people such as myself.  Somewhere in between the hard and rash attitude of most conservatives and the blatant hypocrisy of most liberals lies people such as myself.  I truly find myself in “no man’s land”, that spot in the middle of two extremes no one dares to tread.

Where and how the mistaken notion came about that fundamentalist theology translates into ultra conservative politics I do not know.  In fact, I am not quite sure where and how one’s attitude towards the Bible became synonymous with a particular political position.  The Bible is totally mute concerning politics since there was no such animal in Bible times.  All attempts to justify mixing the Bible and politics thus become a lesson in futility.

Since we live in a republic which holds elections, I find no fault in participating in them if there is a candidate worth voting for.  The problem comes in the ridiculous two party system of politics this country insists on having.  Sure there are other parties, but for the most part they matter little in most elections.  The only way to have a vote mean anything is to stick with the horrid choices the Democrats and Republicans come up with. 

Now, if people like Rush Limbaugh and Bill Moyers ran for President, then there could be some real excitement in the air.  Of course I would still have no one to vote for, but the rest of the country would sure be entertained.  Unfortunately, the Presidential job doesn’t pay enough to entice Rush to run and Bill has his own reasons for refusing to run.  That leaves us with the normal crop of lawyers and other professional politicians who know only how to seek votes and little else.

Many countries and even some states have general elections with a mandatory percentage needed to win the election.  If one candidate does not reach this percentage, there is a runoff election to select the winner.  Why does there have to be the endless primaries and conventions and all the other ridiculous elements of a two party system?  It was certainly not that way when this country first started electing Presidents.

I honestly wish that anyone who gained a set number of signatures could be on the ballot to run for President.  Even if there were 50 people running, so be it.  Let them conduct their campaign as they see fit wherever and whenever they choose.  Establish a date for the first round of voting and if no one candidate gets over 50% of the vote, the top two or three or four have a runoff election in November.  With so many people on the ballot, this runoff would be a necessity almost every four years.

I know this idea would never fly and never be considered any more than a National sales tax or other measures that are far too logical to ever happen.  No, we must continue to put up with absolute insanity every four years.  We must invest millions upon millions of dollars into an election which barely half of the country cares enough to vote in.  When it is all said and done and whoever ends up being elected finally gets to his or her office in the White House; nothing will have changed, no matter what they said during the campaign.

That is the stupidity of the whole process.  No matter who wins the election, there is still a Congress and a Supreme Court to deal with.  One person cannot change this whole country with their ideas and rhetoric.  Looking back, I can think of no candidate who has run for President since JFK who really was any different than the rest.  That is a sad commentary on the whole business of electing a President of this country.